A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We discuss the probabilistic properties of the variation based third and fourth moments of financial returns as estimators of the actual moments of the return distributions. The moment variations are defined under non-parametric assumptions with quadratic variation method but for the computational tractability, we use …
We consider two stage estimation with a non-parametric first stage and a generalized method of moments second stage, in a simpler setting than (Chernozhukov et al. 2016). We give an alternative proof of the theorem given in (Chernozhukov et al. 2016) that orthogonal second stage moments, sample splitting and n1/4-…
This article investigates parameter estimation of affine term structure models by means of the generalized method of moments. Exact moments of the affine latent process as well as of the yields are obtained by using results derived for p-polynomial processes. Then the generalized method of moments, combined with Quasi-…
This work provides a computationally efficient and statistically consistent moment-based estimator for mixtures of spherical Gaussians. Under the condition that component means are in general position, a simple spectral decomposition technique yields consistent parameter estimates from low-order observable moments, wit…
We propose a method of moments (MoM) algorithm for training large-scale implicit generative models. Moment estimation in this setting encounters two problems: it is often difficult to define the millions of moments needed to learn the model parameters, and it is hard to determine which properties are useful when specif…
MOMENT selects and estimates mixed-effects models using moment identities.
problem Selecting and estimating random-effects covariance matrix and fixed-effects coefficients in multiresponse linear mixed-effects models.
method MOMENT is a stage-wise moment-based framework that reduces the random-effects selection problem to a smooth constrained convex optimization problem.
result MOMENT performs competitively and can outperform separate univariate analyses for correlated responses.
Mixture modeling is a general technique for making any simple model more expressive through weighted combination. This generality and simplicity in part explains the success of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, in which updates are easy to derive for a wide class of mixture models. However, the likelihood of…
Develops efficient algorithms for learning latent-variable models using implicit moment tensor computation.
problem Learning latent-variable models with moment tensors of super-constant degree.
method Implicit moment tensor computation for general models, extending previous work on clustering mixtures of spherical Gaussians.
result First poly(d, k) time learning algorithms for various models including mixtures of linear regressions, spherical Gaussians, and positive linear combinations of non-linear activations.
New algorithm for risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with natural policy gradients.
problem Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with downside risk constraints.
method Introduce a new Bellman equation to estimate the lower partial moment of returns, use natural policy gradients, and extend Reward Constrained Policy Optimization.
result Sample-efficient estimation of partial moments and effective risk-sensitive control.
Develops a new method for estimating models with conditional moment restrictions.
problem Estimating models with conditional moment restrictions, especially non-parametric instrumental variable regression.
method Introduces a min-max criterion function to solve a zero-sum game between modeler and adversary, analyzing estimation rates for various hypothesis spaces.
result Shows that with regularization and rich test function spaces, estimation rates scale with the critical radius of hypothesis and test function spaces.
This paper proposes a Lasso-type estimator for a high-dimensional sparse parameter identified by a single index conditional moment restriction (CMR). In addition to this parameter, the moment function can also depend on a nuisance function, such as the propensity score or the conditional choice probability, which we es…
Adaptive gradient methods such as Adam have been shown to be very effective for training deep neural networks (DNNs) by tracking the second moment of gradients to compute the individual learning rates. Differently from existing methods, we make use of the most recent first moment of gradients to compute the individual …
The total duration of drawdowns is shown to provide a moment-free, unbiased, efficient and robust estimator of Sharpe ratios both for Gaussian and heavy-tailed price returns. We then use this quantity to infer an analytic expression of the bias of moment-based Sharpe ratio estimators as a function of the return distrib…
We consider a stochastic volatility model where the moment generating function of the logarithmic price is finite only on part of the real line. Using a new Tauberian result obtained in [1] and [2], we show that the knowledge of the moment generating function near its critical moment gives a sharp asymptotic expansion …