arXiv research

Overlay framework simplifies exotic derivative pricing.

We consider the problem of finding model-independent bounds on the price of an Asian option, when the call prices at the maturity date of the option are known. Our methods differ from most approaches to model-independent pricing in that we consider the problem as a dynamic programming problem, where the controlled proc…

The study examines how including additional call option prices affects model-independent price bounds for exotic derivatives.

We consider the pricing and hedging of exotic options in a model-independent set-up using \emph{shortfall risk and quantiles}. We assume that the marginal distributions at certain times are given. This is tantamount to calibrating the model to call options with discrete set of maturities but a continuum of strikes. In …

We provide a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Superhedging Theorem for a model independent discrete time financial market with proportional transaction costs. We consider a probability-free version of the Robust No Arbitrage condition introduced in Schachermayer ['04] and show that this is equivalent to the e…

In this paper we investigate model-independent bounds for exotic options written on a risky asset. Based on arguments from the theory of Monge-Kantorovich mass-transport we establish a dual version of the problem that has a natural financial interpretation in terms of semi-static hedging. In particular we prove that th…

In this paper, we provide a model-independent extension of the paradigm of dynamic hedging of derivative claims. We relate model-independent replication strategies to local martingales having a closed form which we can characterise via solutions of coupled PDEs. We provide a general framework and then apply it to a mar…

We consider the pricing of American put options in a model-independent setting: that is, we do not assume that asset prices behave according to a given model, but aim to draw conclusions that hold in any model. We incorporate market information by supposing that the prices of European options are known. In this setting…

Since Hobson's seminal paper [D. Hobson: Robust hedging of the lookback option. In: Finance Stoch. (1998)] the connection between model-independent pricing and the Skorokhod embedding problem has been a driving force in robust finance. We establish a general pricing-hedging duality for financial derivatives which are s…

In this article we discuss the problem of calculating optimal model-independent (robust) bounds for the price of Asian options with discrete and continuous averaging. We will give geometric characterisations of the maximising and the minimising pricing model for certain types of Asian options in discrete and continuous…

Study examines short-term IVS dynamics using a model-independent approach.

In this paper, we consider the pricing and hedging of a financial derivative for an insider trader, in a model-independent setting. In particular, we suppose that the insider wants to act in a way which is independent of any modelling assumptions, but that she observes market information in the form of the prices of va…

In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of Catastrophic Mortality Bonds and, in particular, we examine the case of the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003 as a primary example of this class of assets. This bond was the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond to be launched in the market and encapsulates the behaviour of …

Robust, or model-independent properties of the variance swap are well-known, and date back to Dupire and Neuberger, who showed that, given the price of co-terminal call options, the price of a variance swap was exactly specified under the assumption that the price process is continuous. In Cox and Wang we showed that a…

Simple method calculates WWR for regulatory and accounting purposes.

In a discrete-time market, we study model-independent superhedging, while the semi-static superhedging portfolio consists of {\it three} parts: static positions in liquidly traded vanilla calls, static positions in other tradable, yet possibly less liquid, exotic options, and a dynamic trading strategy in risky assets …

We prove dual attainment for multi-asset financial derivatives pricing.

Study dynamic trading in options to improve price bounds for exotic derivatives.

In this paper we provide a pricing-hedging duality for the model-independent superhedging price with respect to a prediction set $Ξ\subseteq C[0,T]$, where the superhedging property needs to hold pathwise, but only for paths lying in $Ξ$. For any Borel measurable claim $ξ$ which is bounded from below, the superhedging …

Study uses weak transport for non-convex costs in fixed-income markets.

A variance swap is a derivative with a path-dependent payoff which allows investors to take positions on the future variability of an asset. In the idealised setting of a continuously monitored variance swap written on an asset with continuous paths it is well known that the variance swap payoff can be replicated exact…

We propose a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Super-Replication Theorem in a model-independent framework. We prove these theorems in the setting of finite, discrete time and a market consisting of a risky asset S as well as options written on this risky asset. As a technical condition, we assume the existence…

The paper uses deep learning to detect asset price bubbles in tech stocks.

Study uses viscosity solutions to solve control problems involving measure-valued martingales.

We explore the possibilities of importance sampling in the Monte Carlo pricing of a structured credit derivative referred to as Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). Modeling a CDO contract is challenging, since it depends on a pool of (typically about 100) assets, Monte Carlo simulations are often the only feasible ap…

In this paper the zero vanna implied volatility approximation for the price of freshly minted volatility swaps is generalised to seasoned volatility swaps. We also derive how volatility swaps can be hedged using a strip of vanilla options with weights that are directly related to trading intuition. Additionally, we der…

In this article we consider the problem of giving a robust, model-independent, lower bound on the price of a forward starting straddle with payoff $|F_{T_1} - F_{T_0}|$ where $0<T_0<T_1$. Rather than assuming a model for the underlying forward price $(F_t)_{t \geq 0}$, we assume that call prices for maturities $T_0<T_1…

We develop a robust framework for pricing and hedging of derivative securities in discrete-time financial markets. We consider markets with both dynamically and statically traded assets and make minimal measurability assumptions. We obtain an abstract (pointwise) Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and Pricing--Hedgin…

The increasing richness in volume, and especially types of data in the financial domain provides unprecedented opportunities to understand the stock market more comprehensively and makes the price prediction more accurate than before. However, they also bring challenges to classic statistic approaches since those model…

Motivated by the model- independent pricing of derivatives calibrated to the real market, we consider an optimization problem similar to the optimal Skorokhod embedding problem, where the embedded Brownian motion needs only to reproduce a finite number of prices of Vanilla options. We derive in this paper the correspon…

We discuss the pricing methodology for Bonus Certificates and Barrier Reverse-Convertible Structured Products. Pricing for a European barrier condition is straightforward for products of both types and depends on an efficient interpolation of observed market option pricing. Pricing products We discuss the pricing metho…

We consider as given a discrete time financial market with a risky asset and options written on that asset and determine both the sub- and super-hedging prices of an American option in the model independent framework of ArXiv:1305.6008. We obtain the duality of results for the sub- and super-hedging prices. For the sub…

In general it is not clear which kind of information is supposed to be used for calculating the fair value of a contingent claim. Even if the information is specified, it is not guaranteed that the fair value is uniquely determined by the given information. A further problem is that asset prices are typically expressed…

Develops a nonparametric model for arbitrage-free pricing of illiquid derivatives.

We analyse the behaviour of the implied volatility smile for options close to expiry in the exponential Lévy class of asset price models with jumps. We introduce a new renormalisation of the strike variable with the property that the implied volatility converges to a non-constant limiting shape, which is a function of …

We pursue robust approach to pricing and hedging in mathematical finance. We consider a continuous time setting in which some underlying assets and options, with continuous paths, are available for dynamic trading and a further set of European options, possibly with varying maturities, is available for static trading. …

Study small-time CLTs for stochastic Volterra equations with various kernels.

We develop robust pricing and hedging of a weighted variance swap when market prices for a finite number of co--maturing put options are given. We assume the given prices do not admit arbitrage and deduce no-arbitrage bounds on the weighted variance swap along with super- and sub- replicating strategies which enforce t…

Derivatives on the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) have gained significant popularity over the last decade. The pricing of VIX derivatives involves evaluating the square root of the expected realised variance which cannot be computed by direct Monte Carlo methods. Least squares Monte Carlo methods…

Financial markets based on Lévy processes are typically incomplete and option prices depend on risk attitudes of individual agents. In this context, the notion of utility indifference price has gained popularity in the academic circles. Although theoretically very appealing, this pricing method remains difficult to app…

The QLBS model is a discrete-time option hedging and pricing model that is based on Dynamic Programming (DP) and Reinforcement Learning (RL). It combines the famous Q-Learning method for RL with the Black-Scholes (-Merton) model's idea of reducing the problem of option pricing and hedging to the problem of optimal reba…

Revisits Lee's Moment Formula, relaxing moment assumptions for implied volatility.

We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics that are readily obtained from empirical data. The method we propose greatly simpli…

This paper demonstrates the usefulness and importance of the concept of honest times to financial modeling. It studies a financial market with asset prices that follow jump-diffusions with negative jumps. The central building block of the market model is its growth optimal portfolio (GOP), which maximizes the growth ra…

In this paper, we present a method for constructing a (static) portfolio of co-maturing European options whose price sign is determined by the skewness level of the associated implied volatility. This property holds regardless of the validity of a specific model - i.e. the method is robust. The strategy is given explic…

Developing a climate-aware pricing framework for XL reinsurance and CAT bonds under non-stationary catastrophe risk.

A leveraged exchange traded fund (LETF) is an exchange traded fund that uses financial derivatives to amplify the price changes of a basket of goods. In this paper, we consider the robust hedging of European options on a LETF, finding model-free bounds on the price of these options. To obtain an upper bound, we establi…

VarPro selects features without model dependence, achieving balanced performance.