Survival MDN uses invertible functions to speed up survival analysis models.
problem Training neural ODEs for survival analysis is computationally expensive.
method Survival MDN applies an invertible positive function to MDN outputs.
result Survival MDN outperforms or matches other models on concordance, Brier score, and log-likelihood.
Paper proposes new costs for learning multiple centers in MDNs.
problem Learning multiple centers for density approximation in MDNs.
method Combines MDNs with contrastive costs using four types of kernelized matrix costs.
result New costs improve data density approximation in MDNs.
LSTM-MDNs improve risk forecasting during turbulent periods.
problem Forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) during volatile market conditions.
method Implemented Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for VaR forecasting and compared them with established models.
result LSTM-MDNs outperformed benchmark models in turbulent periods but not in calm periods.
Bayesian geoacoustic inversion improved using MDN.
problem Efficiently solving Bayesian geoacoustic inversion problems.
method Deriving geoacoustic statistics from multidimensional posterior density using MDN, training the network on the whole parameter space.
result The network provides reliable predictions and good generalization performance, solving problems in seconds.
Neural network model improves loss reserving accuracy and distribution flexibility.
problem Accurate estimation of claim variability alongside central estimates.
method Mixture Density Neural Network (MDN) with rolling-origin approach.
result MDN consistently outperforms classical models for central estimates and quantiles.
Generative model prices basket options efficiently.
problem Real-time pricing of basket options with varying market inputs.
method Truncated path signatures and Mixture Density Networks (MDN) for learning the terminal density.
result The model produces small pricing errors and matches Monte Carlo simulations closely.
MDNs offer a data-efficient alternative to diffusion and flow models for multimodal scientific learning.
problem Capturing multimodal conditional uncertainty in scientific inverse problems.
method Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) as explicit parametric density estimators.
result MDNs achieve superior generalization, interpretability, and sample efficiency in scientific tasks.
Combines Bézier curves with Gaussian processes for better sequential data modeling.
problem Limited expressiveness of MDNs in probabilistic modeling of sequential data.
method Integrates Gaussian processes with probabilistic Bézier curves for full Bayesian inference.
result Improves expressiveness of MDNs by enabling full Bayesian inference.
Accurate demand forecasts can help on-line retail organizations better plan their supply-chain processes. The challenge, however, is the large number of associative factors that result in large, non-stationary shifts in demand, which traditional time series and regression approaches fail to model. In this paper, we pro…
Predicting smartphone users activity using WiFi fingerprints has been a popular approach for indoor positioning in recent years. However, such a high dimensional time-series prediction problem can be very tricky to solve. To address this issue, we propose a novel deep learning model, the convolutional mixture density r…
A method to automatically learn proposal distributions for energy-based regression models.
problem Manual design and initial estimate of proposal distributions for energy-based regression models.
method Introduces a method to learn an effective proposal distribution automatically, parameterized by a separate network head, and derives a unified training objective to minimize KL divergence and negative log-likelihood.
result Consistently outperforms conventional MDN training on four real-world regression tasks within computer vision.
Proposes new loss functions for better handling bimodal predictive uncertainty.
problem Bimodal predictive uncertainty in machine learning models.
method Family of distribution-aware loss functions integrating normalized RMSE with Wasserstein and Cramér distances.
result Proposed loss functions reduce predictive uncertainty estimation error by 45% on complex bimodal datasets.
In this paper, we propose a novel maximum causal Tsallis entropy (MCTE) framework for imitation learning which can efficiently learn a sparse multi-modal policy distribution from demonstrations. We provide the full mathematical analysis of the proposed framework. First, the optimal solution of an MCTE problem is shown …
The vast majority of the neural network literature focuses on predicting point values for a given set of response variables, conditioned on a feature vector. In many cases we need to model the full joint conditional distribution over the response variables rather than simply making point predictions. In this paper, we …
UncertaintyPlayground simplifies uncertainty estimation in Python.
problem Uncertainty estimation in supervised learning tasks.
method Sparse and Variational Gaussian Process Regressions for normally distributed outcomes, Mixed Density Networks for mixed distributions.
result Fast and simplified uncertainty estimation through Python library.
While several methods for predicting uncertainty on deep networks have been recently proposed, they do not readily translate to large and complex datasets. In this paper we utilize a simplified form of the Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) to produce a one-shot approach to quantify uncertainty in regression problems. We …
Graph Mixture Density Networks model multimodal data on graphs.
problem Challenging conditional density estimation problems with structured data.
method Combining mixture models and graph representation learning.
result Significant improvement in likelihood of epidemic outcomes.
Improves sequence modeling with a flow-based recurrent mixture density network.
problem Sequence modeling and sequence-to-sequence mapping applications.
method Generalized recurrent mixture density networks using normalized flow transformations.
result Significantly improved fit to image sequences measured by log-likelihood.
In recent years, impressive progress has been made in the design of implicit probabilistic models via Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) and its extension, the Conditional GAN (CGAN). Excellent solutions have been demonstrated mostly in image processing applications which involve large, continuous output spaces. The…
The study applies spatial density models to mobile node movements using Möbius distributions.
problem Modeling the steady-state density of mobile nodes on a 2D terrain.
method Used mixture density networks with Möbius distributions to describe node density over a disk.
result Möbius distributions are more suitable for capturing radial changes in node density compared to Gaussian distributions.
Non-spanning identification of scheduled event risk in option pricing.
problem Separating continuous surface from scheduled jump in option pricing.
method Modeling FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and NFP reports as deterministic-time jumps in risk-neutral option pricing.
result Improves held-out event-spanning pricing with Gaussian and two-component mixture jumps.
MDNS generates samples from complex discrete distributions efficiently.
problem Learning neural samplers for discrete state spaces with multi-modal distributions.
method A novel framework using stochastic optimal control of continuous-time Markov chains.
result MDNS outperforms other methods in generating accurate samples from high-dimensional, multi-modal distributions.
Transfer learning improves loan recovery rate forecasting under data scarcity.
problem Data scarcity in loan portfolios limits RR modeling accuracy.
method Introduces FT-MDN-Transformer, a mixture-density tabular Transformer architecture for TL.
result FT-MDN-Transformer outperforms baseline models in RR forecasting, especially under covariate and conditional shifts.
Paper improves speech separation by using deep neural networks for more accurate density priors.
problem Improving the accuracy of source priors for independent vector analysis in speech separation.
method Estimating the derivative of speech density using deep neural networks to optimize performance indices.
result Neural network density priors outperform previous ones in convergence speed and SIR.
The paper introduces a new method for multivariate density estimation using deep neural mixture models.
problem Multivariate density estimation is a fundamental but underexplored task in machine learning.
method The paper extends Neural Mixture Densities (NMMs) to multivariate Deep Neural Mixture Models (DNMMs) using maximum-likelihood algorithm.
result The DNMMs can model any probability density function to any degree of precision and outperform traditional statistical estimation techniques.
Predicting smartphone users location with WiFi fingerprints has been a popular research topic recently. In this work, we propose two novel deep learning-based models, the convolutional mixture density recurrent neural network and the VAE-based semi-supervised learning model. The convolutional mixture density recurrent …
This paper introduces the kernel mixture network, a new method for nonparametric estimation of conditional probability densities using neural networks. We model arbitrarily complex conditional densities as linear combinations of a family of kernel functions centered at a subset of training points. The weights are deter…
Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty quantification. On the other hand, it was recently shown that ensembles of NNs, which belo…
Paper uses GMM and MAF for probabilistic classification, outperforming simpler models.
problem Classifying data with complex distributions.
method Density estimation using Gaussian Mixture Model and Masked Autoregressive Flow.
result Proposed classifiers outperform simpler models like linear discriminant analysis.
A new tensor ring mixture model improves density estimation efficiency.
problem Efficient probability density estimation in statistical machine learning.
method Tensor ring decomposition with mixture model for adaptive weights.
result Enhanced expressive capability and flexibility in density estimation.
The two most extended density-based approaches to clustering are surely mixture model clustering and modal clustering. In the mixture model approach, the density is represented as a mixture and clusters are associated to the different mixture components. In modal clustering, clusters are understood as regions of high d…
Generative Adversarial Networks have surprising ability for generating sharp and realistic images, though they are known to suffer from the so-called mode collapse problem. In this paper, we propose a new GAN variant called Mixture Density GAN that while being capable of generating high-quality images, overcomes this p…
We introduce RNADE, a new model for joint density estimation of real-valued vectors. Our model calculates the density of a datapoint as the product of one-dimensional conditionals modeled using mixture density networks with shared parameters. RNADE learns a distributed representation of the data, while having a tractab…
Sepsis is a life-threatening condition caused by the body's response to an infection. In order to treat patients with sepsis, physicians must control varying dosages of various antibiotics, fluids, and vasopressors based on a large number of variables in an emergency setting. In this project we employ a "world model" m…
Conditional diffusion models can approximate target distributions well with Gaussian-mixture reverse kernels.
problem Approximating target distributions in conditional diffusion models.
method Using finite Gaussian mixtures with ReLU-network logits as reverse kernels, reducing the problem to static conditional density approximation.
result The resulting neural reverse-kernel class is dense in conditional KL divergence under exact terminal matching.
A neural network method estimates densities from characteristic functions.
problem Estimating fixed-horizon probability densities from empirical characteristic functions.
method Data-driven Fourier-mixture neural-network method trained in Fourier space.
result Competitive performance and clear gains on heavy-tailed targets.
The paper proposes a method for interpretable mixture density estimation using a tree structure.
problem Complex probability distributions in machine learning models.
method Interpretable tree structure for mixture density estimation with fast inference.
result The method achieves both high speed and interpretability for mixture density estimation.
MD-CGAN models forecast time series with probabilistic posterior distributions.
problem Limited applications of GANs in time series forecasting, especially with probabilistic predictions.
method Mixture Density Conditional Generative Adversarial Model (MD-CGAN) using Gaussian mixture output.
result MD-CGAN outperforms benchmarks, especially in noisy time series.
A new model combines normalizing flows with mixture components for better density estimation.
problem Lack of explicit probability density functions in deep generative models.
method Variational mixture of normalizing flows, using variational inference and neural network parameters.
result The model can perform density estimation, semi-supervised learning, and clustering.
Estimates Gaussian mixtures from weighted samples efficiently.
problem Estimating Gaussian mixtures from weighted samples with correct weight treatment.
method Density interpretation and expectation-maximization method considering weights.
result Correctly estimates Gaussian mixtures with weighted samples.
Enhances mixture models with classifier-defined weights.
problem Density evaluation and sampling in mixture models.
method Introduces Classifier Weighted Mixtures (CWM) with functional weights.
result Improves expressivity in variational estimation without increasing complexity.
Regularized mixtures improve inflation and interest rate forecasts, especially correcting overconfidence.
problem Improving density forecasts of Eurozone inflation and real interest rates.
method Construct regularized mixtures of density forecasts with various objectives and penalties.
result Regularized mixtures outperform individual forecasters, especially correcting overconfidence.
Fast, reliable, and error-bounded option pricing with neural networks
problem Fast, reliable, and error-bounded option pricing
method Mixture Density Network
result Out-of-sample CDF error of 1.4imes10−4 The paper analyzes how a known density function can be deviated by a mixture distribution as more data is collected.
problem Modeling the deviation of a known density function when more data is collected.
method A novel distinguishability notion is used to establish rates of convergence for maximum likelihood estimates of the deviated proportion and latent mixing measure.
result Rates of convergence for the maximum likelihood estimates of the deviated proportion and latent mixing measure are established under the Wasserstein metric.
A new method for density estimation using mixture discrepancy and moments.
problem Generalizing histogram statistics to higher dimensions.
method Density estimation via mixture discrepancy and moments (DSP-mix and MSP).
result DSP-mix and MSP are computationally tractable and maintain accuracy with increased speed.
New deep learning model estimates scattering timescale of FRBs efficiently.
problem Estimating scattering timescale of fast radio bursts (FRBs) is a bottleneck.
method Multimodal Transformer Based Generic Mixture Density Network (MT-GMDN) that ingests dynamic spectrum and timeseries profile.
result Achieves 94% R2 on expected value of τ for measurable scattering. GGMPs improve non-Gaussian conditional density estimation.
problem Multimodality, heteroscedasticity, and strong non-Gaussianity in conditional density estimation.
method GGMP combines local Gaussian mixture fitting, cross-input component alignment, and per-component heteroscedastic GP training.
result GGMPs improve distributional approximation on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Paper presents LSTMMDN for hourly bike flow estimation in Copenhagen.
problem Sparse or unavailable hourly bike flow data for safety analysis.
method Hybrid LSTM MDN model for hourly bike flow estimation.
result 66-77% more accurate bike flow estimates compared to calibration factors.