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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,932 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Millisecond prediction

DEFRAG accelerates extreme classification by reducing feature dimensions.

problem High precision and scalability in assigning labels from a vast label space.
method Adaptive feature agglomeration to reduce feature dimensions.
result Significant reduction in training and prediction times (up to 40%) for extreme classification algorithms.

Novel LSTM network predicts pulsar timing residuals with few-shot data.

problem Predicting pulsar timing residuals with limited data.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network optimized with model-agnostic meta-learning and particle swarm optimization.
result Robust generalization and accurate predictions across high-frequency test domains with minimal data.

Paper uses NMT to predict solutions to stochastic optimization problems quickly.

problem Predicting solutions to stochastic discrete optimization problems under uncertainty.
method Applied a state-of-the-art NMT algorithm with minimal adaptations and hyperparameter tuning.
result NMT can produce accurate solutions in milliseconds with less variability.

The paper analyzes real-time methods to detect rapidly varying liquidity in markets.

problem Increased trade execution price uncertainty due to rapid price variations by high-frequency traders.
method A four-state Markov switching model to identify volatile liquidity states.
result The model can generate a signal to delay orders, reducing price volatility for market participants.

The observation of power laws in the time to extrema of volatility, volume and intertrade times, from milliseconds to years, are shown to result straightforwardly from the selection of biased statistical subsets of realizations in otherwise featureless processes such as random walks. The bias stems from the selection o…

2011-12-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Estimation of facial expressions, as spatio-temporal processes, can take advantage of kernel methods if one considers facial landmark positions and their motion in 3D space. We applied support vector classification with kernels derived from dynamic time-warping similarity measures. We achieved over 99% accuracy - measu…

2013-06-08abs ↗pdf ↗

This thesis builds a real-time VaR calculation workflow for crypto derivatives.

problem Managing risk in volatile cryptocurrency markets.
method Applied EMWA, GARCH, and HAR models to forecast volatility; used delta-gamma-theta approach and Cornish-Fisher expansion.
result Real-time VaR estimates with millisecond calculation latencies.

ALIEN improves uncertainty estimation of language models by refining entropy-based methods.

problem Overconfidence in uncertainty estimation for language models, especially for difficult inputs.
method ALIEN refines entropy-based uncertainty by aligning it with prediction reliability, using a lightweight uncertainty head.
result ALIEN consistently outperforms strong baselines in detecting incorrect predictions and achieving the lowest calibration error.

New methods for ZZ-transform inversion and Wiener-Hopf factorization.

problem Efficient numerical inversion of ZZ-transforms and factorization of functions.
method Sinh-deformations of contours, variable changes, and simplified trapezoid rule.
result High precision and speed in evaluating moments and constructing filters.

SNNs enhance high-frequency price spike forecasting in HFT environments.

problem Conventional financial models fail to capture fine temporal structure in high-frequency price spikes.
method Application of Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) with hyperparameter tuning via Bayesian Optimization (BO).
result SNN models optimized with PSA achieve significantly higher cumulative returns in backtesting.

Efficiently solves inverse classification problems for logistic and softmax models.

problem Finding instances that change classifier predictions.
method Closed-form solution for logistic regression, iterative optimization for softmax.
result Fast, exact solutions for high-dimensional instances and many classes.

We introduce Microsoft Machine Learning for Apache Spark (MMLSpark), an ecosystem of enhancements that expand the Apache Spark distributed computing library to tackle problems in Deep Learning, Micro-Service Orchestration, Gradient Boosting, Model Interpretability, and other areas of modern computation. Furthermore, we…

2018-10-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Fast Bayesian inference with adaptable priors for real-time applications.

problem Intractable exact posterior computation limits Bayesian inference's adoption.
method Distribution Transformer architecture that learns mappings between priors and posteriors.
result Significant reduction in computation time from minutes to milliseconds.

The paper calibrates a model to market quotes efficiently and arbitrage-free.

problem Calibrating a model to market option quotes efficiently and without arbitrage.
method Piecewise-linear local variance function for efficient calibration.
result Arbitrage-free interpolation of class C2C^2 achieved under one millisecond.

Recent advances in neural architecture search (NAS) demand tremendous computational resources, which makes it difficult to reproduce experiments and imposes a barrier-to-entry to researchers without access to large-scale computation. We aim to ameliorate these problems by introducing NAS-Bench-101, the first public arc…

2019-02-25abs ↗pdf ↗

iDAD uses neural networks to quickly adapt experiments without likelihoods.

problem Performing adaptive experiments in real-time with implicit models.
method iDAD learns a design policy network upfront to make quick design decisions.
result iDAD can make design decisions in milliseconds, unlike traditional BOED approaches.

New method samples from time-integrated stochastic bridges using neural networks.

problem Sampling from time-integrated stochastic bridges with high accuracy and speed.
method Polynomial chaos expansion and artificial neural networks.
result Robust, data-driven Monte Carlo sampling with thousands of samples in milliseconds.

The paper derives formulas for option pricing and random walk expectations.

problem Calculating the price of barrier and lookback options.
method Inverse Z-transform, Fourier/Laplace inversion, Wiener-Hopf factorization, and numerical methods.
result Efficient numerical methods for option pricing are developed.

In an Ultrafast Extreme Event (or Mini Flash Crash), the price of a traded stock increases or decreases strongly within milliseconds. We present a detailed study of Ultrafast Extreme Events in stock market data. In contrast to popular belief, our analysis suggests that most of the Ultrafast Extreme Events are not prima…

2017-07-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Much of studies on neural computation are based on network models of static neurons that produce analog output, despite the fact that information processing in the brain is predominantly carried out by dynamic neurons that produce discrete pulses called spikes. Research in spike-based computation has been impeded by th…

2017-06-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Method reconstructs neuron models from spike times efficiently.

problem Reconstructing neuron models from spike times in degenerate populations.
method Combining deep learning with DICs to map spike times to DIC densities and generate degenerate CBM populations.
result Fast and scalable reconstruction of degenerate populations from spike recordings.

We present a neural network based calibration method that performs the calibration task within a few milliseconds for the full implied volatility surface. The framework is consistently applicable throughout a range of volatility models -including the rough volatility family- and a range of derivative contracts. The aim…

2019-01-28abs ↗pdf ↗

DAD learns to design experiments quickly, outperforming traditional methods.

problem Real-time decision-making in sequential Bayesian experimental design.
method Amortized design network trained with contrastive information bounds.
result DAD outperforms alternative strategies on various problems.

Taobao, as the largest online retail platform in the world, provides billions of online display advertising impressions for millions of advertisers every day. For commercial purposes, the advertisers bid for specific spots and target crowds to compete for business traffic. The platform chooses the most suitable ads to …

2017-02-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Young isolated neutron stars (INS) most commonly manifest themselves as rotationally powered pulsars (RPPs) which involve conventional radio pulsars as well as gamma-ray pulsars (GRPs) and rotating radio transients (RRATs). Some other young INS families manifest themselves as anomalous X-ray pulsars (AXPs) and soft gam…

2019-04-08abs ↗pdf ↗

New method for efficient pricing of double barrier options in Lévy models.

problem Difficulties in accurately and quickly calculating prices of double barrier options in jump models.
method GWR-SINH method based on Gaver-Wynn-Rho acceleration applied to Bromwich integral.
result Accurate and fast calculations of prices of double barrier options in jump models achieved.

K-Nearest Neighbours (k-NN) is a popular classification and regression algorithm, yet one of its main limitations is the difficulty in choosing the number of neighbours. We present a Bayesian algorithm to compute the posterior probability distribution for k given a target point within a data-set, efficiently and withou…

2017-05-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Detects corruption in agentic models during execution.

problem Inconsistent context, retrieval errors, or adversarial inputs corrupt intermediate steps of reasoning chains.
method Analyzes token graphs induced by attention and computes spectral statistics to emit accept/reject signals.
result A single threshold on the high frequency energy ratio optimally detects context inconsistency in agentic models.

AMS improves video inference on edge devices by adapting a small model with online knowledge distillation.

problem High computation cost of Deep Neural Networks for real-time video inference on edge devices.
method AMS uses a remote server to continually train and adapt a small model on edge devices, using online knowledge distillation from a large model.
result 0.4--17.8 percent mean Intersection-over-Union improvement in video semantic segmentation.