A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new trading strategy using reinforcement learning for statistical arbitrage.
Recent studies have shown that online portfolio selection strategies that exploit the mean reversion property can achieve excess return from equity markets. This paper empirically investigates the performance of state-of-the-art mean reversion strategies on real market data. The aims of the study are twofold. The first…
On-line portfolio selection has attracted increasing interests in machine learning and AI communities recently. Empirical evidences show that stock's high and low prices are temporary and stock price relatives are likely to follow the mean reversion phenomenon. While the existing mean reversion strategies are shown to …
Consider the problem of pricing options on forwards in energy markets, when spot prices follow a geometric multi-factor model in which several rates of mean reversion appear. In this paper we investigate the role played by slow mean reversion when pricing and hedging options. In particular, we determine both upper and …
The purpose of these notes is to provide a systematic quantitative framework - in what is intended to be a "pedagogical" fashion - for discussing mean-reversion and optimization. We start with pair trading and add complexity by following the sequence "mean-reversion via demeaning -> regression -> weighted regression ->…
Solves optimal control for trading multiple mean-reverting assets.
Investigates geometric mean reversion process using Lie symmetry method.
A new formula reveals symmetries between mean excess and ES functions.
Optimizes trading returns using Hurst exponent and Q-learning.
In a market with a rough or Markovian mean-reverting stochastic volatility there is no perfect hedge. Here it is shown how various delta-type hedging strategies perform and can be evaluated in such markets in the case of European options. A precise characterization of the hedging cost, the replication cost caused by th…
A new Monte Carlo sampling method derived from reverse diffusion.
Improved calibration of HJM models using small volatility approximation.
This paper considers the mean-reverting portfolio design problem arising from statistical arbitrage in the financial markets. We first propose a general problem formulation aimed at finding a portfolio of underlying component assets by optimizing a mean-reversion criterion characterizing the mean-reversion strength, ta…
This paper applies DRL to mean reversion trading problems.
We continue our study of geometric analysis on (possibly non-reversible) Finsler manifolds, based on the Bochner inequality established by the author and Sturm. Following the approach of the -calculus a la Bakry et al, we show the dimensional versions of the Poincare--Lichnerowicz inequality, the logarithmic Sobolev…
Develops a martingale expansion for stochastic volatility models.
The electricity market is a very peculiar market due to the large variety of phenomena that can affect the spot price. However, this market still shows many typical features of other speculative (commodity) markets like, for instance, data clustering and mean reversion. We apply the diffusion entropy analysis (DEA) to …
Lorentz-Finsler geometry reveals new and old inequalities.
In financial markets, low prices are generally associated with high volatilities and vice-versa, this well known stylized fact usually being referred to as leverage effect. We propose a local volatility model, given by a stochastic differential equation with piecewise constant coefficients, which accounts of leverage a…
Paper optimizes diffusion models for denoising tasks with theoretical guarantees.
In this paper two metric properties on geodesic length spaces are introduced by means of the metric projection, studying their validity on Alexandrov and Busemann NPC spaces. In particular, we prove that both properties characterize the non-positivity of the sectional curvature on Riemannian manifolds. Further results …
We consider an SPDE description of a large portfolio limit model where the underlying asset prices evolve according to certain stochastic volatility models with default upon hitting a lower barrier. The asset prices and their volatilities are correlated via systemic Brownian motions, and the resulting SPDE is defined o…
Study shows price bubbles can exist even with heterogeneous beliefs.
We use commutator techniques and calculations in solvable Lie groups to investigate certain evolution Partial Differential Equations (PDEs for short) that arise in the study of stochastic volatility models for pricing contingent claims on risky assets. In particular, by restricting to domains of bounded volatility, we …
We consider a system of diffusion processes that interact through their empirical mean and have a stabilizing force acting on each of them, corresponding to a bistable potential. There are three parameters that characterize the system: the strength of the intrinsic stabilization, the strength of the external random per…
We find stationary distributions in a financial model with trends and mean-reversion.
Characterizes isometries between non-reversible Finsler manifolds.
Study finds IBS useful for predicting ETF price movements.
This paper is concerned with the following Markovian stochastic differential equation of mean-reversion type \[ dR_t= (θ+σα(R_t, t))R_t dt +σR_t dB_t \] with an initial value , where and are constants, and the mean correction function $α:\mathbb{R}\times[0,\infty)\to α(x,t)\…
This work improves understanding of symmetrizing Bregman divergences on positive definite matrices.
Optimizes trading large volumes of volatile assets with fast mean-reverting volatility.
We investigate a generalized stochastic model with the property known as mean reversion, that is, the tendency to relax towards a historical reference level. Besides this property, the dynamics is driven by multiplicative and additive Wiener processes. While the former is modulated by the internal behavior of the syste…
New method detects inconsistencies in AHP matrices using triadic preference reversals.
A model-free method analyzes trading strategies using excursion paths.
This paper studies the optimal VIX futures trading problems under a regime-switching model. We consider the VIX as mean reversion dynamics with dependence on the regime that switches among a finite number of states. For the trading strategies, we analyze the timings and sequences of the investor's market participation,…
In electricity markets, it is sensible to use a two-factor model with mean reversion for spot prices. One of the factors is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process driven by a Brownian motion and accounts for the small variations. The other factor is an OU process driven by a pure jump Lévy process and models the characteri…
Pairs trading strategy fails to outperform market benchmarks, but performs well during bear markets.
Post-hoc transforms can reverse model performance trends, especially in noisy settings.
Optimal trading strategy using LQR framework with price mean-reversion.
We generalize Brendle's geometric inequality considered in \cite{B} to static manifolds. The inequality bounds the integral of inverse mean curvature of an embedded mean-convex hypersurface by geometric data of the horizon. As a consequence, we obtain a reverse Penrose inequality on static asymptotically locally hyperb…
The leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between the return of an asset and the changes in its volatility. There is broad agreement in the literature that the effect should be present for theoretical reasons, and it has been consistently found in empirical work. However, a few papers have pointe…
New GP kernels avoid mean reversion without losing smoothness.
A new method for generating synthetic data using posterior distribution learning accelerates inference.
A new method simulates square-root processes efficiently.
We introduce a multivariate Hawkes process that accounts for the dynamics of market prices through the impact of market order arrivals at microstructural level. Our model is a point process mainly characterized by 4 kernels associated with respectively the trade arrival self-excitation, the price changes mean reversion…
Generative model for hypergraphs captures complex interactions without pairwise reductions.
Optimal trend-following strategy uses simple EMA, avoiding complex cherry-picked signals.
Improved speech enhancement using diffusion models with MSE loss.