A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study compares local and global models for hierarchical forecasting accuracy.
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We show that universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimiza…
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We also show that, under some asumptions, universal consisten…
The paper bounds the mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression.
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We prove the existence of an optimal MAPE model and we show the universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimization based on the MAPE. We also show that finding the best model under…
This paper models yearly exchange rates between USD/KZT, EUR/KZT and SGD/KZT, and compares the actual data with developed forecasts using time series analysis over the period from 2006 to 2014. The official yearly data of National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan is used for present study. The main goal of this paper…
The paper explores MAE as a loss function for DNN vector-to-vector regression, proving its advantages over MSE.
Optimal stock price prediction model using recurrent neural networks with RMSprop optimizer.
Method estimates parameters of complex nonlinear systems.
LALR adapts learning rate for faster convergence in regression and neural nets.
Paper proposes a new metric to evaluate survival models, especially for censored data.
This paper achieves optimal regret bounds for locally private linear contextual bandit.
Bayesian deep learning counts crowds robustly despite occlusions and scale variations.
Neural network training process takes long time when the size of training data is huge, without the large set of training values the neural network is unable to learn features. This dilemma between time and size of data is often solved using fast GPUs, but we present a better solution for a subset of those problems. To…
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility covariance matrix of the time series is modelled via inverted Wishart and singul…
LU-Net improves cardiac segmentation accuracy and robustness.
Model predicts viscosity of multicomponent systems efficiently.
The purpose of this research is to apply technical analysis of Sutte Indicator in stock trading which will assist in the investment decision making process i.e. buying or selling shares. This research takes data of "A" on the Indonesia Stock Exchange(IDX or BEI) 29 November 2006 until 20 September 2016 period. To see t…
We develop a family of techniques to align word embeddings which are derived from different source datasets or created using different mechanisms (e.g., GloVe or word2vec). Our methods are simple and have a closed form to optimally rotate, translate, and scale to minimize root mean squared errors or maximize the averag…
Study compares machine learning algorithms for predicting SST in the Great Barrier Reef.
Proposes a new loss function for learning with noisy labels.
eDCF estimates intrinsic dimension using local connectivity.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in a variety of applications across many disciplines. Yet, their superior performance comes with the expensive cost of requiring correctly annotated large-scale datasets. Moreover, due to DNNs' rich capacity, errors in training labels can hamper performance. …
Predicts Bitcoin price using Twitter sentiment analysis.
A visualization aids in comparing regression models by highlighting errors and correlations.
Prediction models in mobility and transportation maintenance systems have been dramatically improved through using machine learning methods. This paper proposes novel machine learning models for intelligent road inspection. The traditional road inspection systems based on the pavement condition index (PCI) are often as…
The uncertainties in future Bitcoin price make it difficult to accurately predict the price of Bitcoin. Accurately predicting the price for Bitcoin is therefore important for decision-making process of investors and market players in the cryptocurrency market. Using historical data from 01/01/2012 to 16/08/2019, machin…
SpinSVAR estimates SVAR models with sparse input, improving accuracy and scalability.
Predicting registration error can be useful for evaluation of registration procedures, which is important for the adoption of registration techniques in the clinic. In addition, quantitative error prediction can be helpful in improving the registration quality. The task of predicting registration error is demanding due…
We propose a Multi-Task Learning (MTL) paradigm based deep neural network architecture, called MTCNet (Multi-Task Crowd Network) for crowd density and count estimation. Crowd count estimation is challenging due to the non-uniform scale variations and the arbitrary perspective of an individual image. The proposed model …
A main goal of regression is to derive statistical conclusions on the conditional distribution of the output variable Y given the input values x. Two of the most important characteristics of a single distribution are location and scale. Support vector machines (SVMs) are well established to estimate location functions …
A complete surface of constant mean curvature 1 (CMC-1) in hyperbolic 3-space with constant curvature -1 has two natural notions of "total curvature"-- one is the total absolute curvature which is the integral over the surface of the absolute value of the Gaussian curvature, and the other is the dual total absolute cur…
Neural network accuracy improves with denser training samples.
Models predict probabilities of causation from limited data.
Paper introduces MADL loss function for better AIS model optimization.
Ordinal regression is aimed at predicting an ordinal class label. In this paper, we consider its semi-supervised formulation, in which we have unlabeled data along with ordinal-labeled data to train an ordinal regressor. There are several metrics to evaluate the performance of ordinal regression, such as the mean absol…
Study forecasts Bitcoin prices using ML algorithms.
New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.
Near-optimal algorithms for mean estimation and linear regression with Gaussian covariates and Huber contamination.
Study improves prediction of UK road accidents' severity using AI.
We investigate the waiting-time distribution of the absolute return in the Korean stock-market index KOSPI. We define the waiting time as a time interval during which the normalized absolute return remains continuously below a threshold . Through an exponential bin plot, we observe that the waiting-time distributi…
New methods improve insurance data quality for catastrophic events.
Predict stock prices using financial news sentiment analysis.
In this work, we study robust deep learning against abnormal training data from the perspective of example weighting built in empirical loss functions, i.e., gradient magnitude with respect to logits, an angle that is not thoroughly studied so far. Consequently, we have two key findings: (1) Mean Absolute Error (MAE) D…
Computational materials screening studies require fast calculation of the properties of thousands of materials. The calculations are often performed with Density Functional Theory (DFT), but the necessary computer time sets limitations for the investigated material space. Therefore, the development of machine learning …
This study proposes a novel Graph Convolutional Neural Network with Data-driven Graph Filter (GCNN-DDGF) model that can learn hidden heterogeneous pairwise correlations between stations to predict station-level hourly demand in a large-scale bike-sharing network. Two architectures of the GCNN-DDGF model are explored; G…
The logcosh loss function helps neural networks learn set-valued functions better.
Random walks and polygons are used to model polymers. In this paper we consider the extension of writhe, self-linking number and linking number to open chains. We then study the average writhe, self-linking and linking number of random walks and polygons over the space of configurations as a function of their length. W…