We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We show that universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimiza…
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48 results for “Mean Absolute Error”
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We also show that, under some asumptions, universal consisten…
The paper bounds the mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression.
problem Bounding the mean absolute error in deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Error decomposition techniques in statistical learning theory and non-convex optimization theory were used to derive upper bounds for approximation, estimation, and optimization errors.
result Theoretical upper bounds for mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression were derived and validated experimentally.
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We prove the existence of an optimal MAPE model and we show the universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimization based on the MAPE. We also show that finding the best model under…
Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Time Series Analysis: The sample of the currency of Kazakhstanq-fin.ST
This paper models yearly exchange rates between USD/KZT, EUR/KZT and SGD/KZT, and compares the actual data with developed forecasts using time series analysis over the period from 2006 to 2014. The official yearly data of National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan is used for present study. The main goal of this paper…
The paper explores MAE as a loss function for DNN vector-to-vector regression, proving its advantages over MSE.
problem Improving loss function for deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Presenting performance bounds and new properties of MAE, deriving generalized upper bounds, and interpreting MAE as a Laplacian distribution.
result MAE is a more suitable loss function than MSE for DNN based vector-to-vector regression, especially when errors follow a Laplacian distribution.
Optimal stock price prediction model using recurrent neural networks with RMSprop optimizer.
problem Stock price prediction using neural networks.
method Comparison of fully connected, convolutional, and recurrent architectures; inclusion of three optimization techniques.
result Single layer recurrent neural network with RMSprop optimizer produces optimal results with validation and test MAE of 0.0150 and 0.0148 respectively.
Method estimates parameters of complex nonlinear systems.
problem Parameter estimation for nonlinear systems with derivative states.
method Regularized linear regression using differentiation filtering and least squares.
result Finite-sample bound on mean absolute error of estimation.
LALR adapts learning rate for faster convergence in regression and neural nets.
problem Finding optimal learning rates for faster convergence in regression and neural networks.
method Lipschitz continuity theory applied to Mean Absolute Error and Quantile loss functions.
result Adaptive learning rate policy enables up to 20x faster convergence.
Paper proposes a new metric to evaluate survival models, especially for censored data.
problem Challenges in evaluating survival prediction models due to censored data.
method Developed a novel approach to estimate Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for survival datasets with censored data.
result The proposed MAE metric using pseudo-observations accurately ranks model performance and closely matches true MAE.
This paper achieves optimal regret bounds for locally private linear contextual bandit.
problem Designing locally private linear contextual bandit algorithms with optimal regret bounds.
method New algorithmic and analytical ideas, including mean absolute deviation analysis and layered principal component regression.
result Achieves an regret upper bound for locally private linear contextual bandit.
Neural network training process takes long time when the size of training data is huge, without the large set of training values the neural network is unable to learn features. This dilemma between time and size of data is often solved using fast GPUs, but we present a better solution for a subset of those problems. To…
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility covariance matrix of the time series is modelled via inverted Wishart and singul…
LU-Net improves cardiac segmentation accuracy and robustness.
problem Robustness and accuracy of deep learning cardiac segmentation.
method Multi-task end-to-end network designed to improve cardiac segmentation.
result Outperforms current best deep learning solution, reducing outliers and improving clinical indices.
Model predicts viscosity of multicomponent systems efficiently.
problem Expensive experimental viscosity measurements in various industries.
method Artificial neural networks trained on a database of chemical systems and temperatures.
result Model Viskositas provides more accurate predictions with lower errors, variability, and outliers.
The purpose of this research is to apply technical analysis of Sutte Indicator in stock trading which will assist in the investment decision making process i.e. buying or selling shares. This research takes data of "A" on the Indonesia Stock Exchange(IDX or BEI) 29 November 2006 until 20 September 2016 period. To see t…
A Comparison of Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting Sea Surface Temperature in the Great Barrier Reef Regionphysics.ao-ph
Study compares machine learning algorithms for predicting SST in the Great Barrier Reef.
problem Predicting sea surface temperature in the Great Barrier Reef region.
method Ridge regression, LASSO, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms were evaluated.
result XGBoost significantly outperforms other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy and Kullback-Leibler Divergence.
Proposes a new loss function for learning with noisy labels.
problem Improving model learnability with noisy labels.
method Uses generalized Jensen-Shannon divergence as a noise-robust loss function.
result Shows state-of-the-art results on noisy data.
Predicts Bitcoin price using Twitter sentiment analysis.
problem Volatility and varied opinions in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed a model combining sentiment analysis of tweets and historical price data.
result Sentiment prediction MAPE of 9.45%, price prediction MAPE of 3.6%
Are Bitcoins price predictable? Evidence from machine learning techniques using technical indicatorsq-fin.ST
The uncertainties in future Bitcoin price make it difficult to accurately predict the price of Bitcoin. Accurately predicting the price for Bitcoin is therefore important for decision-making process of investors and market players in the cryptocurrency market. Using historical data from 01/01/2012 to 16/08/2019, machin…
A complete surface of constant mean curvature 1 (CMC-1) in hyperbolic 3-space with constant curvature -1 has two natural notions of "total curvature"-- one is the total absolute curvature which is the integral over the surface of the absolute value of the Gaussian curvature, and the other is the dual total absolute cur…
Models predict probabilities of causation from limited data.
problem Estimating probabilities of causation requires unreliable or impractical experimental and observational data.
method Proposed Exact-MLP and Mask-MLP models trained on reliable subpopulations.
result Models achieve average MAEs of roughly 0.03, reducing MAE by 80%.
Paper introduces MADL loss function for better AIS model optimization.
problem Optimizing machine learning models for AIS construction.
method Proposes Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function.
result MADL function improves hyperparameter selection and investment strategy efficiency.
Ordinal regression is aimed at predicting an ordinal class label. In this paper, we consider its semi-supervised formulation, in which we have unlabeled data along with ordinal-labeled data to train an ordinal regressor. There are several metrics to evaluate the performance of ordinal regression, such as the mean absol…
Study forecasts Bitcoin prices using ML algorithms.
problem Accurately predicting Bitcoin price movements.
method Applied four ML algorithms: SVM, ANN, NB, RF, and LR.
result RF outperforms other models in continuous dataset, NB in discrete.
New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.
problem Current validation methods fail to quantify extreme errors in high-stakes domains.
method Uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate worst-case failures.
result Establishes EVT as a fundamental tool for assessing model reliability.
Near-optimal algorithms for mean estimation and linear regression with Gaussian covariates and Huber contamination.
problem Gaussian mean estimation and linear regression with Gaussian covariates in the presence of Huber contamination.
method Near-optimal algorithms with optimal error guarantees, achieving sample complexity and almost linear runtime.
result First sample near-optimal and almost linear-time algorithms with optimal error guarantees for both problems.
New methods improve insurance data quality for catastrophic events.
problem Improving precision and size of insurance data for catastrophic events.
method Bootstrap, bootknife, and GAN algorithms.
result Compared MSE and MAE of simulated outputs, direct algorithm for fuzzy expert opinion.
Predict stock prices using financial news sentiment analysis.
problem Predicting stock market trends for better investment returns.
method Deep Learning (MLP, LSTM, FinBERT-LSTM) integrating news sentiment.
result FinBERT-LSTM model predicts stock prices more accurately.
In this work, we study robust deep learning against abnormal training data from the perspective of example weighting built in empirical loss functions, i.e., gradient magnitude with respect to logits, an angle that is not thoroughly studied so far. Consequently, we have two key findings: (1) Mean Absolute Error (MAE) D…
Materials property prediction using symmetry-labeled graphs as atomic-position independent descriptorscond-mat.mtrl-sci
Computational materials screening studies require fast calculation of the properties of thousands of materials. The calculations are often performed with Density Functional Theory (DFT), but the necessary computer time sets limitations for the investigated material space. Therefore, the development of machine learning …
Study compares local and global models for hierarchical forecasting accuracy.
problem Challenges in hierarchical time series forecasting, especially in accuracy and information utilisation.
method Developed and evaluated local and global forecasting models (GFMs) to exploit cross-series and cross-hierarchies information.
result Global Forecasting Models (GFMs) outperform local models in hierarchical forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.
Finding hidden-feature depending laws inside a data set and classifying it using Neural Networkcs.LG
The logcosh loss function helps neural networks learn set-valued functions better.
problem Learning set-valued functions with neural networks.
method Using artificial neural networks with logcosh loss.
result Neural networks with logcosh loss can classify samples based on set-valued functions.
We review recent results on classifying complete constant mean curvature 1 (CMC 1) surfaces in hyperbolic 3-space with low total curvature. There are two natural notions of "total curvature" -- one is the total absolute curvature, which is the integral over the surface of the absolute value of the Gaussian curvature, a…
Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient Boosting Regression. The method was tested on data from Global Energy Forecasting …
New 4-manifolds with exotic diffeomorphisms found.
problem Existence of exotic diffeomorphisms in 4-manifolds.
method Proves existence of infinitely many contractible 4-manifolds with exotic diffeomorphisms.
result Infinitely many contractible 4-manifolds with absolutely exotic diffeomorphisms.
We survey our recent results on classifying complete constant mean curvature 1 (CMC-1) surfaces in hyperbolic 3-space with low total curvature. There are two natural notions of "total curvature"-- one is the total absolute curvature which is the integral over the surface of the absolute value of the Gaussian curvature,…
An Exponential Factorization Machine with Percentage Error Minimization to Retail Sales Forecastingcs.LG
New model predicts sales of new products with short life cycles.
problem Forecasting sales of new products with short lead times and life cycles.
method Developed an exponential factorization machine (EFM) to consider attributes and pairwise interactions.
result EFM model outperforms existing models in terms of MAPE and MAE.
Gas demand forecasting is a critical task for energy providers as it impacts on pipe reservation and stock planning. In this paper, the one-day-ahead forecasting of residential gas demand at country level is investigated by implementing and comparing five models: Ridge Regression, Gaussian Process (GP), k-Nearest Neigh…
Finding Density Functionals with Machine Learningphysics.comp-ph
Machine learning is used to approximate density functionals. For the model problem of the kinetic energy of non-interacting fermions in 1d, mean absolute errors below 1 kcal/mol on test densities similar to the training set are reached with fewer than 100 training densities. A predictor identifies if a test density is …
Hinge-FM2I fills missing data in time series with high accuracy.
problem Handling missing data in univariate time series.
method Inspired by door hinges, Hinge-FM2I imputes missing data using FM2I and selects the best imputed gap.
result Hinge-FM2I significantly outperforms other methods in sMAPE scores.
Paper optimizes portfolios for absolute return funds with constraints.
problem Optimizing portfolios with constraints for absolute return funds.
method Stochastic control framework with numerical solution using kernel-based collocation method.
result Leverage is necessary to achieve the target level.
The prediction of stock prices is an important task in economics, investment and making financial decisions. This has, for decades, spurred the interest of many researchers to make focused contributions to the design of accurate stock price predictive models; of which some have been utilized to predict the next day ope…
Language models predict inorganic synthesis conditions and temperatures.
problem Limited data and heuristic approaches constrain inorganic synthesis planning.
method Language models without fine-tuning predict precursor conditions and temperatures.
result Language models achieve high accuracy in predicting synthesis conditions and temperatures.
Study shows heavy-tailed distributions affect reliability of machine learning calibration statistics.
problem Reliability of calibration statistics for machine learning regression tasks is affected by heavy-tailed uncertainty and error distributions.
method Examined two calibration error estimation methods (CE and ZMS) and found ZMS to be less sensitive to heavy-tailed distributions.
result Heavy-tailed distributions make MSE and MV unreliable, but ZMS remains a reliable approach.
Using artificial neural network for the prediction of heat demand has attracted more and more attention. Weather conditions, such as ambient temperature, wind speed and direct solar irradiance, have been identified as key input parameters. In order to further improve the model accuracy, it is of great importance to und…
Study compares MoE and RNN models for stock price prediction across volatility profiles.
problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy across different volatility levels.
method Dynamic Mixture of Experts model combining RNN and linear models, adjusting weights through a gating network.
result MoE model outperforms individual models in reducing prediction errors.
Versatile linkage: a family of space-conserving strategies for agglomerative hierarchical clusteringstat.ME
Agglomerative hierarchical clustering can be implemented with several strategies that differ in the way elements of a collection are grouped together to build a hierarchy of clusters. Here we introduce versatile linkage, a new infinite system of agglomerative hierarchical clustering strategies based on generalized mean…