A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Postprocessing reduces Bayesian optimization steps for global optima.
Paper introduces HGSL for heterogeneous graphs, improving edge type and weight recovery.
Bayesian framework estimates label shift for improved classifier performance.
Bayesian Predictive Coding improves deep learning uncertainty quantification.
Maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference over discrete Markov random fields is a fundamental task spanning a wide spectrum of real-world applications, which is known to be NP-hard for general graphs. In this paper, we propose a novel semidefinite relaxation formulation (referred to as SDR) to estimate the MAP assignment. A…
Belief propagation (BP) can do exact inference in loop-free graphs, but its performance could be poor in graphs with loops, and the understanding of its solution is limited. This work gives an interpretable belief propagation rule that is actually minimization of a localized -divergence. We term this algorithm as $α…
Method identifies change points in high-dimensional models using sample weights.
Function-space MAP estimation leads to better generalization and robustness.
Deep Reinforcement Learning improves with Weighted Q-Learning to reduce bias and uncertainty.
One of the core problems in statistical models is the estimation of a posterior distribution. For topic models, the problem of posterior inference for individual texts is particularly important, especially when dealing with data streams, but is often intractable in the worst case. As a consequence, existing methods for…
Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences. However, when only short sequences are available, the lack of data amplifies the r…
Detecting and recovering labels in binomial logistic mixtures is challenging due to an information gap.
SVB method provides scalable Bayesian proportional hazards model for high-dimensional gene expression data.
While it's always possible to compute a variational approximation to a posterior distribution, it can be difficult to discover problems with this approximation. We propose two diagnostic algorithms to alleviate this problem. The Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) diagnostic gives a goodness of fit measurement f…
Bayesian network structure learning is often performed in a Bayesian setting, by evaluating candidate structures using their posterior probabilities for a given data set. Score-based algorithms then use those posterior probabilities as an objective function and return the maximum a posteriori network as the learned mod…
This work connects BNNs to GPs, providing scalable inference and identifying key properties.
Two synthetic likelihood methods learn EBM of likelihood from simulator data for SBI.
A new probabilistic framework for optimal transport using collective graphical models.
Meta-learning improves Bayesian causal discovery by sampling from the posterior.
Bayesian -regularized least squares is a variable selection technique for high dimensional predictors. The challenge is optimizing a non-convex objective function via search over model space consisting of all possible predictor combinations. Spike-and-slab (a.k.a. Bernoulli-Gaussian) priors are the gold standard f…
Bayesian approach optimizes quantum circuits for noisy hardware.
The Support Vector Machine (SVM) of Vapnik (1998) has become widely established as one of the leading approaches to pattern recognition and machine learning. It expresses predictions in terms of a linear combination of kernel functions centred on a subset of the training data, known as support vectors. Despite its wide…
Efficiently updates posterior tree distributions over meta-trees.
Crowdsourcing is an effective tool for human-powered computation on many tasks challenging for computers. In this paper, we provide finite-sample exponential bounds on the error rate (in probability and in expectation) of hyperplane binary labeling rules under the Dawid-Skene crowdsourcing model. The bounds can be appl…
Probabilistic topic models are popular unsupervised learning methods, including probabilistic latent semantic indexing (pLSI) and latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). By now, their training is implemented on general purpose computers (GPCs), which are flexible in programming but energy-consuming. Towards low-energy imple…
Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential statements about potentially observable random quantities given observed data. Th…
Bayesian network structure learning is often performed in a Bayesian setting, evaluating candidate structures using their posterior probabilities for a given data set. Score-based algorithms then use those posterior probabilities as an objective function and return the maximum a posteriori network as the learned model.…
The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e., computing a posterior of the latent state given the model. However, the key challenge in…
Extends GP regression to complex Helmholtz problems, improving wavefield inference in brain elastography.
Maximum likelihood estimation fails to be well-posed in Gaussian process regression.
It is now known that an extended Gaussian process model equipped with rescaling can adapt to different smoothness levels of a function valued parameter in many nonparametric Bayesian analyses, offering a posterior convergence rate that is optimal (up to logarithmic factors) for the smoothness class the true function be…
New maximum score estimators using ReLU functions and deep neural networks.
We present a new statistical learning paradigm for Boltzmann machines based on a new inference principle we have proposed: the latent maximum entropy principle (LME). LME is different both from Jaynes maximum entropy principle and from standard maximum likelihood estimation.We demonstrate the LME principle BY deriving …
Paper shows statistical learning can't always lead to true knowledge.
CNR uses convex optimization to estimate conditional distributions.
Estimates chirp signal frequencies using probabilistic models.
This work extends balancing to various simulation-based inference algorithms for more conservative posterior approximations.
We revisit the problem of linear regression under a differential privacy constraint. By consolidating existing pieces in the literature, we clarify the correct dependence of the feature, label and coefficient domains in the optimization error and estimation error, hence revealing the delicate price of differential priv…
In financial markets valuable information is rarely circulated homogeneously, because of time required for information to spread. However, advances in communication technology means that the 'lifetime' of important information is typically short. Hence, viewed as a tradable asset, information shares the characteristics…
Bayesian method improves online NARMAX model identification.
Paper proposes a new UCB approach for estimating maximum mean.
We propose a robust estimator to improve maximum likelihood in probabilistic models.
Calibrated probabilistic solvers improve accuracy of ODE estimates.
In this paper we present a proof of a Neumann type maximum principle for the Laplace operator on compact Riemannian manifolds. A key p oint is the simple geometric nature of the constant in the a priori estimate of this maximum principle. In particular, this maximum principle can be applied to manifolds with Ricci curv…
We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we show that it is non-trivial to select a good estimator without knowledge about the …
New estimate for complex Monge-Ampère equations improves previous results.
Paper presents a method for estimating Hawkes process parameters.
Matrix decomposition is a popular and fundamental approach in machine learning and data mining. It has been successfully applied into various fields. Most matrix decomposition methods focus on decomposing a data matrix from one single source. However, it is common that data are from different sources with heterogeneous…