Bayesian parametric matrix models provide uncertainty quantification for spectral learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in spectral learning for safety-critical applications.
method Bayesian parametric matrix models (B-PMMs) that extend PMMs to provide uncertainty estimates.
result B-PMMs achieve exceptional uncertainty calibration (ECE < 0.05) while maintaining favorable scaling.
UA-LQE improves value function learning by selectively erasing uncertain entries in Q-matrix.
problem Improving value function learning in complex reinforcement learning tasks.
method Uncertainty-aware low-rank Q-matrix estimation (UA-LQE) algorithm.
result UA-LQE selectively erases uncertain entries in Q-matrix to improve value function approximation.
Characterizes uncertainty in low-rank matrix completion with noisy data.
problem Uncertainty quantification in low-rank matrix completion with heterogeneous sub-exponential noise.
method Characterizes the distribution of estimated matrix entries under low-rank estimators with heterogeneous sub-exponential noise.
result Explicit formulas for the distribution of estimated matrix entries under Poisson and Binary noise.
This paper improves matrix completion by estimating uncertainty and performing inference.
problem Estimating a low-rank matrix with noisy and incomplete data and assessing uncertainty.
method Developed a de-biased estimator procedure to compensate for bias in convex and nonconvex estimators.
result Achieved nearly precise non-asymptotic distributional characterizations for de-biased estimators, enabling valid confidence intervals.
New method quantifies classifier uncertainty, revealing large variability in performance metrics.
problem Uncertainty in classifier performance metrics due to small data sets.
method Probability model of the confusion matrix to quantify uncertainty.
result Large uncertainties in classification performance metrics can lead to misleading conclusions.
Develops a method to estimate uncertainty for group-level recommendations in matrix completion.
problem Uncertainty estimation for group-level recommendations in matrix completion.
method Structured conformal inference method combining any matrix completion algorithm.
result Stronger group-level guarantees through structured calibration.
A method for semi-supervised regression under uncertainty combines graph Laplacian and cluster ensemble.
problem Semi-supervised regression with uncertain data structure and noise.
method Combines graph Laplacian regularization and cluster ensemble methodologies; uses low-rank decomposition of co-association matrix.
result Robust, efficient, and scalable method demonstrated through numerical experiments.
This paper proposes a probabilistic imputation method with uncertainty quantification.
problem Missing value imputation with uncertainty estimation for large datasets.
method Low Rank Gaussian Copula framework that augments PPCA with column-specific transformations.
result The method yields state-of-the-art imputation accuracy and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates.
A new metric for uncertainty quantification using class collisions.
problem Fine-grained uncertainty quantification in classification problems.
method Introducing the collision matrix and estimating it from one-hot labeled data.
result The collision matrix uniquely recovers the posterior class probability distribution.
Compressed sensing (CS) shows that a signal having a sparse or compressible representation can be recovered from a small set of linear measurements. In classical CS theory, the sampling matrix and representation matrix are assumed to be known exactly in advance. However, uncertainties exist due to sampling distortion, …
Deep learning models need accurate uncertainty quantification for safe use.
problem Uncertainty in deep learning models, especially for black box models.
method Model multivariate uncertainty for regression problems using neural networks, incorporating aleatoric and epistemic sources of heteroscedastic uncertainty. Train using direct multivariate Gaussian density loss function and end-to-end Kalman filter training.
result Accurate multivariate uncertainty quantification improves Kalman filter performance for in-domain and out-of-domain evaluation data.
Optimizes ellipsoids for uncertainty regions in parameter estimation.
problem Learning minimal volume uncertainty ellipsoids for parameter estimation.
method Differentiable optimization approach using neural networks to approximate optimal ellipsoids.
result Approximately computed ellipsoids are smaller and more accurate than existing methods.
We develop a sparse representation method for neural network uncertainty.
problem Estimating model uncertainty in neural networks.
method Sparse representation of model uncertainty using inverse Multivariate Normal Distribution (MND), with a novel sparsification algorithm and analytical sampler.
result The information form of neural networks can be effectively applied for model uncertainty representation, showing competitive performance.
A new method improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning, especially for hard-to-label samples.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation for hard-to-label samples in deep learning.
method Introduces Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) to dynamically reweight objective loss terms.
result Consistently outperforms traditional evidential neural networks in uncertainty estimation tasks.
New algorithm for efficient prediction intervals in neural networks.
problem Challenges in estimating uncertainty in neural network predictions.
method Applies matrix sketching to approximate Jacobian matrix for efficient uncertainty estimation.
result Produces approximate prediction intervals with competitive performance.
The paper addresses statistical inference in matching markets with dependent missingness.
problem Statistical inference for two-sided matching markets with matching-induced dependence.
method Non-convex algorithm based on Grassmannian gradient descent, debiasing and projection framework.
result Near-optimal entrywise convergence rates for various matching mechanisms.
Delta method applied to deep nets for uncertainty quantification.
problem Quantifying epistemic uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Low-cost variant of Delta method for L2-regularized deep neural networks. result Approximation error close to zero for meaningful rankings of images.
Enhanced Elastic-Net with box-constraint improves support recovery in noisy measurements.
problem Support recovery of sparse signals from noisy measurements.
method Box-Elastic Net (Box-EN) method with mean squared error and probability of support recovery analysis.
result The Box-Elastic Net outperforms the standard Elastic-Net in support recovery.
A new model combines Gaussian processes with collaborative filtering for uncertainty-aware recommendations.
problem Uncertainty in recommendation systems.
method Combining Gaussian process multi-output models with collaborative filtering.
result Generates uncertainty estimates for predictions.
The log-determinant of a kernel matrix appears in a variety of machine learning problems, ranging from determinantal point processes and generalized Markov random fields, through to the training of Gaussian processes. Exact calculation of this term is often intractable when the size of the kernel matrix exceeds a few t…
We show that the Kullback-Leibler distance is a good measure of the statistical uncertainty of correlation matrices estimated by using a finite set of data. For correlation matrices of multivariate Gaussian variables we analytically determine the expected values of the Kullback-Leibler distance of a sample correlation …
clusterBMA combines clustering results from multiple models using Bayesian model averaging.
problem Uncertainty in model selection for clustering.
method Bayesian model averaging to combine results from multiple clustering algorithms.
result ClusterBMA offers probabilistic cluster allocations and quantifies model-based uncertainty.
Last-layer approximation improves UQ performance without sacrificing computational efficiency.
problem Epistemic uncertainty quantification for deep neural networks.
method Comparison of full-network and last-layer linearization using theoretical and empirical approaches.
result Last-layer approximation yields comparable UQ performance with improved computational efficiency.
New method predicts binary matrix entries using empirical Bayes and low-rank structure.
problem Predicting unobserved entries in binary matrices.
method Empirical Bayes method motivated by Efron--Morris estimator, exploiting low-rank structure.
result Superior performance in predictive accuracy, calibration, and efficiency compared to existing methods.
The paper addresses portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices, finding a logarithmic risk dependence.
problem Portfolio allocation with uncertain covariance matrices.
method Calculates the expected value of CARA utility function over a distribution of covariance matrices, considering uncertainty in future returns and covariances.
result Marginalization introduces a logarithmic dependence on risk, leading to lower allocation levels for higher uncertainties.
This paper visualizes uncertainty in classifier performance metrics.
problem Overemphasis on model performance metrics risks overlooking uncertainty.
method Developed visualizations of confusion matrix metric distributions.
result Uncertainty in performance metrics can overshadow model differences.
The paper analyzes how factorized Gaussian approximations underestimate uncertainty in variational inference.
problem Underestimation of uncertainty in variational inference using factorized Gaussian approximations.
method Examined the trade-off between shrinkage and delinking in approximating a Gaussian with a diagonal covariance matrix.
result Entropy of the factorized Gaussian approximation underestimates both componentwise variance and entropy of the original Gaussian.
A Bayesian Boolean Matrix Factorization for cancer genomics
problem Identifying coordinated feature changes in cancer
method Bayesian Boolean Matrix Factorization
result Captures widespread, near-simultaneous chromosome-number changes
Paper tackles uncertainties in reduced-order modeling of complex systems.
problem Model-form uncertainties in reduced-order modeling of complex systems.
method Combines Riemannian projection and retraction operators on a subset of the Stiefel manifold with an information-theoretic formulation.
result Identifies and quantifies the impact of model-form uncertainties on inferred operators.
BN^2MF identifies unknown exposure patterns in environmental mixtures.
problem Identifying unknown exposure patterns in environmental mixtures.
method Bayesian non-parametric non-negative matrix factorization (BN^2MF) with non-negative continuous priors and a non-parametric sparse prior.
result Estimates patterns of chemical exposures without specifying the number of patterns.
Learning probability distributions on the weights of neural networks (NNs) has recently proven beneficial in many applications. Bayesian methods, such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), offer an elegant framework to reason about NN model uncertainty. However, by assuming independent Gaussian priors for the i…
Uncertainty-aware PCA preserves data uncertainty during dimensionality reduction.
problem Uncertainty in data affects traditional PCA methods, leading to inaccurate results.
method Generalizes PCA for multivariate probability distributions, respecting uncertainty.
result Uncertainty-aware PCA maintains data characteristics after projection.
Improved deep probabilistic time series forecasting by learning error autocorrelation.
problem Simplification of time-independent error process and lack of serial correlation in existing models.
method Proposes a training method that incorporates error autocorrelation to enhance probabilistic forecasting accuracy.
result Improves predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification across multiple datasets.
This project compares MCMC and VI for Bayesian PMF on MovieLens.
problem Intractable posterior distribution in PMF.
method Employed MCMC and VI for Bayesian inference on MovieLens.
result VI converges faster, MCMC provides more accurate estimates.
The paper proposes AIS for Bayesian inversion of multioutput signals with covariance estimation.
problem Performing uncertainty analysis of covariance matrices in Bayesian inversion problems for multioutput signals.
method Adaptive Importance Sampling (AIS) scheme, split variables, frequentist approach for noise covariance, prior density over covariance matrix.
result Estimation of model parameters and covariance matrix of noise.
This paper is the first work to propose a network to predict a structured uncertainty distribution for a synthesized image. Previous approaches have been mostly limited to predicting diagonal covariance matrices. Our novel model learns to predict a full Gaussian covariance matrix for each reconstruction, which permits …
A method to reduce memory usage in deep learning models by adding inducing weights.
problem Memory inefficiency in Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles.
method Augmenting the weight matrix with inducing weights and using Matheron's conditional Gaussian sampling rule.
result Reduces parameter size to 24.3% of a single neural network while maintaining competitive performance.
SLANG improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.
problem Challenging uncertainty estimation in large deep-learning models.
method SLANG estimates a 'diagonal plus low-rank' structure based on back-propagated gradients.
result SLANG enables faster and more accurate uncertainty estimation than mean-field methods.
As part of Basel II's incremental risk charge (IRC) methodology, this paper summarizes our extensive investigations of constructing transition probability matrices (TPMs) for unsecuritized credit products in the trading book. The objective is to create monthly or quarterly TPMs with predefined sectors and ratings that …
Bayesian Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) is a promising approach for understanding uncertainty and structure in matrix data. However, a large volume of applied work optimizes traditional non-Bayesian NMF objectives that fail to provide a principled understanding of the non-identifiability inherent in NMF-- an i…
New method improves Kalman filtering and smoothing for large state spaces.
problem High computational cost and uncertainty in large-scale Kalman filtering.
method Probabilistic numerical method leveraging GPU acceleration and tunable trade-off.
result Mitigates scaling issues and provides more accurate uncertainty estimates.
We consider the matrix completion problem of recovering a structured matrix from noisy and partial measurements. Recent works have proposed tractable estimators with strong statistical guarantees for the case where the underlying matrix is low--rank, and the measurements consist of a subset, either of the exact individ…
Portfolio theory is a very powerful tool in the modern investment theory. It is helpful in estimating risk of an investor's portfolio, which arises from our lack of information, uncertainty and incomplete knowledge of reality, which forbids a perfect prediction of future price changes. Despite of many advantages this t…
STACI uses neural nets to estimate spatio-temporal fields with valid uncertainty quantification.
problem Scalable spatio-temporal deep learning models fail to capture underlying correlation structure.
method Variational Bayesian neural network approximation of non-stationary spatio-temporal Gaussian Process (GP) with conformal inference.
result STACI provides accurate prediction intervals for spatio-temporal processes, outperforming competing methods.
Bayesian method learns graph structures from Gaussian data efficiently.
problem Scalability issue in Bayesian Gaussian graphical model inference.
method Marginal pseudo-likelihood, birth-death and reversible jump MCMC algorithms.
result Efficient graph structure learning for large graphs with over 1,000 nodes.
Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) is a popular tool for data exploration. Bayesian NMF promises to also characterize uncertainty in the factorization. Unfortunately, current inference approaches such as MCMC mix slowly and tend to get stuck on single modes. We introduce a novel approach using rapidly-exploring ra…
We present a learning theory for the training of a linear system operator having an input compositional variable and propose a Bayesian inversion method for inferring the unknown variable from an output of a noisy linear system. We assume that we have partial or even no knowledge of the operator but have training data …
We quantify uncertainty in Oja's algorithm's leading eigenvector estimation.
problem Estimating the error of Oja's algorithm's leading eigenvector from streaming data.
method Combining U-statistics, high-dimensional central limit theorems, and multiplier bootstrap.
result Established a weighted χ² approximation for the error between the eigenvector and algorithm output.