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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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10203040 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Markovian RNN

Markovian RNN adapts to nonstationary data using HMM for better time series prediction.

problem Nonstationary sequential data in real-life applications.
method Markovian RNN with HMM for regime switching and end-to-end optimization.
result Significant performance gains over vanilla RNN and Markov Switching ARIMA.

A new method scales Gaussian process variational autoencoders to handle high-dimensional time series.

problem Scalability issue in Gaussian process variational autoencoders (GPVAEs).
method Introducing Markovian GPs and using Kalman filtering and smoothing for linear time training.
result MGPVAE outperforms existing approaches in various tasks with high scalability.

Complex textual information extraction tasks are often posed as sequence labeling or \emph{shallow parsing}, where fields are extracted using local labels made consistent through probabilistic inference in a graphical model with constrained transitions. Recently, it has become common to locally parametrize these models…

2018-09-28abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper uses RL and RNN to optimize trading with latent market information.

problem Optimal trading strategies exploiting latent information in financial markets.
method Blend of RL and RNN, integrating GRU networks for temporal dependencies.
result prob-DDPG achieves superior cumulative rewards and interpretable strategies.

Conventional sequential learning methods such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) focus on interactions between consecutive inputs, i.e. first-order Markovian dependency. However, most of sequential data, as seen with videos, have complex temporal dependencies that imply variable-length semantic flows and their composi…

2019-07-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Non-Markovian point process shows power-law scaling, similar to nonlinear Markovian process.

problem Understanding the scaling behavior of non-Markovian point processes.
method Analyzed a confined fractional Brownian motion-driven point process and compared it to a nonlinear Markovian process.
result A nonlinear Markovian process can reproduce the power-law scaling behavior of a non-Markovian point process.

Projects Markovian processes from Itô semimartingales with jumps.

problem Modeling Itô semimartingales with jumps using Markovian projections.
method Construct Markovian projections for Itô semimartingales with jumps using non-local FPKEs.
result Markovian projections match the marginal laws of the original process.

The fundamental task of general density estimation p(x)p(x) has been of keen interest to machine learning. In this work, we attempt to systematically characterize methods for density estimation. Broadly speaking, most of the existing methods can be categorized into either using: \textit{a}) autoregressive models to estim…

2018-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper solves the inversion problem for jump processes using Markovian projections.

problem Calibrating jump-diffusion models with both local and stochastic features.
method Inverting Markovian projections for pure jump processes.
result Constructs calibrated local stochastic intensity (LSI) models for credit risk applications.

In this paper, we explore different ways to extend a recurrent neural network (RNN) to a \textit{deep} RNN. We start by arguing that the concept of depth in an RNN is not as clear as it is in feedforward neural networks. By carefully analyzing and understanding the architecture of an RNN, however, we find three points …

2013-12-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper introduces PRMs to learn non-Markovian stochastic rewards for reinforcement learning.

problem Lack of structured representation for non-Markovian stochastic rewards in reinforcement learning.
method Introduces probabilistic reward machines (PRMs) and presents an algorithm to learn them from decision processes.
result Algorithm proves correct and convergent for learning PRMs from decision processes.

Lyapunov analysis improves RNN performance prediction.

problem Uncertainty in RNN performance prediction due to hyperparameters and architecture.
method Lyapunov spectral analysis of RNNs and Autoencoder-Lyapunov Embedding Learning (AeLLE).
result AeLLE successfully correlates RNN Lyapunov spectrum with accuracy and predicts performance.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been extraordinarily successful for prediction with sequential data. To tackle highly variable and noisy real-world data, we introduce Particle Filter Recurrent Neural Networks (PF-RNNs), a new RNN family that explicitly models uncertainty in its internal structure: while an RNN re…

2019-05-30abs ↗pdf ↗

In this work, we propose a novel recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The proposed RNN, gated-feedback RNN (GF-RNN), extends the existing approach of stacking multiple recurrent layers by allowing and controlling signals flowing from upper recurrent layers to lower layers using a global gating unit for each pai…

2015-02-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper establishes convergence rates and concentration bounds for stochastic approximation and reinforcement learning with Markovian noise.

problem Analyzing convergence rates and concentration bounds for stochastic approximation and reinforcement learning with Markovian noise.
method Novel discretization of the mean ODE of stochastic approximation algorithms using intervals with diminishing length.
result First almost sure convergence rate and maximal concentration bound with exponential tails for contractive stochastic approximation algorithms with Markovian noise.

Unified analytical tool for non-Markovian jump processes.

problem Analyzing history-dependent jump processes with non-Markovian behavior.
method Developed a standard form of master equations using Laplace-space embedding and asymptotic solution.
result Unified analytical toolset for general non-Markovian processes, leading to the GLE approximation.

Study improves covariance estimation for SGD under Markovian data, matching best rates.

problem Improving covariance estimation for SGD in Markovian data settings.
method Online overlapping batch-means covariance estimator for SGD under Markovian sampling.
result Established convergence rates for covariance estimation under Markovian sampling.

RNNs struggle with in-context retrieval, while Transformers excel.

problem In-context retrieval capability of RNNs.
method Theoretical analysis and experimental techniques (CoT, RAG, Transformer layer).
result Enhancing RNNs with techniques improves their in-context retrieval capability, closing the representation gap with Transformers.

Time series with non-uniform intervals occur in many applications, and are difficult to model using standard recurrent neural networks (RNNs). We generalize RNNs to have continuous-time hidden dynamics defined by ordinary differential equations (ODEs), a model we call ODE-RNNs. Furthermore, we use ODE-RNNs to replace t…

2019-07-08abs ↗pdf ↗

We develop a Markovian approximation for SVV models to compute hedging strategies.

problem Computing optimal hedging strategies for SVV models with non-Markovian noise.
method Develop a Markovian approximation of the Volterra noise kernel to compute hedging strategies.
result Error estimates for the approximation of volatility, prices, and optimal hedge.

A new HOM model improves forecasting of Indian base metal prices.

problem Improving accuracy in predicting base metal prices in the Indian market.
method A Higher Order Markovian (HOM) model with varying order based on market delay.
result The HOM model consistently outperforms the standard Markovian model in forecasting.

To understand the fundamental trade-offs between training stability, temporal dynamics and architectural complexity of recurrent neural networks~(RNNs), we directly analyze RNN architectures using numerical methods of ordinary differential equations~(ODEs). We define a general family of RNNs--the ODERNNs--by relating t…

2019-04-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Describes state variables in sequential decision problems, linking them to Markovian and non-Markovian models.

problem Sequential decision problems, especially in active learning and POMDPs, where decisions affect what is observed and learned.
method Canonical framework and novel two-agent perspective of POMDPs, defining state variables to claim Markovian or non-Markovian models.
result Properly modeled sequential decision problems are Markovian, while real decision problems are often non-Markovian.

Investigates optimal consumption and investment strategies in non-Markovian markets with unbounded parameters.

problem Optimal consumption and investment strategies in non-Markovian markets with unbounded parameters.
method Martingale optimal principle and quadratic BSDEs with exponential moment.
result Establishes optimal strategies for consumption and investment.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have long been recognized for their potential to model complex time series. However, it remains to be determined what optimization techniques and recurrent architectures can be used to best realize this potential. The experiments presented take a deep look into Hessian free optimization…

2015-10-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Study proves deep narrow RNNs can approximate any function, with minimum width independent of data length.

problem Proving universality of deep narrow RNNs with bounded widths.
method Analyzing RNNs as dynamical systems, proving universality for deep narrow structures with specific widths.
result Minimum width for universality of deep narrow RNNs is independent of data length.

We simplify a complex volatility model to make it easier to price options.

problem The rough Bergomi model's non-Markovian nature complicates option pricing.
method We approximate the rBergomi model with a Bergomi model that is Markovian.
result The rBergomi model can be effectively approximated by a Markovian model.

Frequentist method estimates uncertainty in RNNs without altering architecture.

problem Uncertainty quantification in RNNs for decision-making.
method Jackknife resampling and influence functions to estimate variability.
result The method provides theoretical coverage guarantees on uncertainty intervals.