Measuring systemic risk or fragility of financial systems is a ubiquitous task of fundamental importance in analyzing market efficiency, portfolio allocation, and containment of financial contagions. Recent attempts have shown that representing such systems as a weighted graph characterizing the complex web of interact…
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48 results for “Market Fragility”
Research shows ESG signals lower exposure to market fragility during stress periods.
problem Market fragility often occurs together, and ESG is associated with reduced exposure.
method Monthly data on S&P 500 constituents from 2014 to 2025, analyzing downside returns, volatility, illiquidity, and cofragility states.
result A one-standard-deviation increase in ESG lowers the probability of severe cofragility by 0.92 percentage points during stress periods.
Study fragility in global financial indices using network analysis.
problem Monitor fragility in global financial indices.
method Network-based approach to analyze daily closing prices of global financial indices.
result Network-centric measures reveal fragility in global financial indices.
The MSPI predicts market stress with machine learning.
problem Estimating the probability of high market stress.
method L1-regularized logistic regression on stock fragility signals.
result MSPI tracks major stress episodes and improves accuracy.
Study finds stock and crypto markets tend to be robust, not antifragile.
problem Understanding the resilience of financial markets to noise and disorder.
method Defined and tested a measure of antifragility for complex systems, analyzed stock and crypto market returns.
result Top performers in stock and crypto markets are robust, not antifragile.
Study analyzes smart contract adoption under bounded risk, showing stable adoption but fragile financial outcomes.
problem Understanding smart contract adoption in derivative markets under risk constraints.
method Structural theory linked with simulation and real-world validation.
result Adoption intensity is stable but profitability and service outcomes are sensitive to volatility.
Measuring Strategy-Decay Risk: Minimum Regime Performance and the Durability of Systematic Investingq-fin.RM
Measures strategy durability through minimum regime performance, revealing trade-offs between efficiency and resilience.
problem Systematic investing strategies are vulnerable to regime changes, affecting their effectiveness and performance.
method Introduces minimum regime performance (MRP) to quantify the durability of systematic strategies, capturing how performance deteriorates under changing market conditions.
result Higher long-term Sharpe ratios do not always correlate with higher MRP, highlighting a new dimension of portfolio fragility.
We construct and study market models admitting optimal arbitrage. We say that a model admits optimal arbitrage if it is possible, in a zero-interest rate setting, starting with an initial wealth of 1 and using only positive portfolios, to superreplicate a constant c>1. The optimal arbitrage strategy is the strategy for…
Quantum physics model uses knot theory for fragile topology.
problem Modeling quantum physics' fragile topology.
method Knot theoretic algorithm.
result Quantum physics' fragile topology modeled.
Transfer learning framework for fragility modeling under domain shift and class imbalance
problem Data gaps in structural fragility modeling
method Transfer learning
result Improves failure detection and predictive stability in low-data regimes
AI-driven investment strategies self-defeat at scale due to signal crowding and erosion.
problem Excess returns from AI-driven investment strategies diminish at scale due to signal crowding and erosion.
method Theoretical model and empirical validation using SEC Form 13F filings and hedge fund return dynamics.
result The alpha half-life of signals decreases significantly with AI adoption, leading to diminishing returns.
A framework for the generation of bridge-specific fragility utilizing the capabilities of machine learning and stripe-based approach is presented in this paper. The proposed methodology using random forests helps to generate or update fragility curves for a new set of input parameters with less computational effort and…
New research investigates why influence functions are fragile and proposes new validation procedures.
problem Understanding and mitigating the fragility of influence functions in deep learning model explanations.
method Verification of influence functions using various conditions and procedures, including convexity and non-convexity.
result Validation procedures may cause the observed fragility of influence functions.
BN helps learn fragile features, which can improve adversarial robustness.
problem The role of batch normalization in adversarial training and its impact on robustness.
method Investigated the expressiveness of BN in learning robust features compared to random features.
result Adversarially fine-tuning BN layers can result in non-trivial adversarial robustness.
We present a financial market model, characterized by self-organized criticality, that is able to generate endogenously a realistic price dynamics and to reproduce well-known stylized facts. We consider a community of heterogeneous traders, composed by chartists and fundamentalists, and focus on the role of informative…
The recent financial crisis have generated renewed interests in fragilities of global financial networks among economists and regulatory authorities. In particular, a potential vulnerability of the financial networks is the "financial contagion" process in which insolvencies of individual entities propagate through the…
We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted institution to start a cascade depends on an interplay of shock size and connectivity. Fu…
In this article, we present a discrete time modeling framework, in which the shape and dynamics of a Limit Order Book (LOB) arise endogenously from an equilibrium between multiple market participants (agents). We use the proposed modeling framework to analyze the effects of trading frequency on market liquidity in a ve…
GeomHerd predicts herding behavior before market prices move, using Ricci curvature of agent interaction graphs.
problem Quantifying herding behavior in markets that lags behind actual price movements.
method Develops a geometric framework to track coordination on agent interaction graphs, bypassing lag in price-correlation statistics.
result GeomHerd anticipates herding long before market baselines, with significant lead times in predictions.
Hour-Aware Adaptive Risk Management for Autonomous Memecoin Trading
problem Autonomous memecoin trading system performance
method Hour-of-day effects, filter precision, fragility
result 40.5% win rate, mean per-trade return of +0.62%, cumulative +117.7%
Bitcoin fails to function as a stable currency or store of value.
problem Bitcoin's failure to serve as a reliable currency or store of value.
method Quantitative finance methods and economic arguments applied to cryptocurrencies.
result Bitcoin does not function as a currency, store of value, or inflation hedge.
FTX's failure linked to Terra-Luna collapse and Binance's influence.
problem FTX's collapse due to misuse of native token and reliance on leverage.
method Analyzed on-chain data, studied cryptocurrency dependency structures, and examined public trades.
result FTX's downfall was accelerated by Binance's tweets and public reaction.
This study examines deep hedging for S&P 500 options, revealing systematic delta corrections and fragility.
problem Understanding and validating deep hedging strategies for financial options.
method Compared TD3 agents with a Black-Scholes delta hedge, using walk-forward tests and symbolic regression.
result Deep hedging agents learn systematic delta corrections, which can improve performance but are regime-fragile.
In order for machine learning to be deployed and trusted in many applications, it is crucial to be able to reliably explain why the machine learning algorithm makes certain predictions. For example, if an algorithm classifies a given pathology image to be a malignant tumor, then the doctor may need to know which parts …
We provide a mathematical definition of fragility and antifragility as negative or positive sensitivity to a semi-measure of dispersion and volatility (a variant of negative or positive "vega") and examine the link to nonlinear effects. We integrate model error (and biases) into the fragile or antifragile context. Unli…
The 2008 financial crisis revealed banking consolidation paradoxically increased systemic fragility and global financial contagion with negligible spatial decay.
problem Fundamental vulnerabilities in interconnected banking systems during the 2008 financial crisis were inadequately addressed by existing frameworks.
method Developed a unified spatial-network framework using spectral analysis of network Laplacian operators combined with spatial difference-in-differences identification.
result Banking consolidation paradoxically increased systemic fragility and global financial contagion with negligible spatial decay.
Active learning method optimizes seismic fragility curve estimation.
problem Optimizing calls to complex numerical models for fragility curve estimation.
method Importance sampling based active learning for parametric seismic fragility curve estimation.
result The method optimizes the estimation of fragility curves with mathematical rigor.
Fragility curves which express the failure probability of a structure, or critical components, as function of a loading intensity measure are nowadays widely used (i) in Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment studies, (ii) to evaluate impact of construction details on the structural performance of installations under se…
Simplicial persistence of financial markets: filtering, generative processes and portfolio riskq-fin.ST
Simplicial persistence measures financial market dynamics, revealing long-term structure evolution.
problem Understanding the long-term structure evolution of financial markets.
method Simplicial persistence, null models, TMFG filtering, thresholding, generative process analysis.
result More liquid markets exhibit slower persistence decay, suggesting higher fragility to systemic shocks.
AI systems that explain their decisions can be monitored for harmful intentions.
problem Monitoring AI systems' decision-making processes for harmful intentions is imperfect and can miss some misbehavior.
method Monitoring the chain of thought (CoT) of AI systems that communicate in human language.
result CoT monitoring is a promising but fragile approach to AI safety.
Paper evaluates whether AI is a bubble or a productivity revolution.
problem Determining if AI investments are a bubble or a sustainable technology.
method Hybrid review and diagnostic framework combining asset pricing foundations and modern econometric methods.
result AI investments show both genuine fundamentals and bubble-like fragilities.
New framework forecasts both supply and demand in rental markets.
problem Booking models ignore supply, leading to regime-specific ceilings.
method Three-part coupling framework (behavioral, informational, intervention).
result Booking models learn a regime-specific ceiling and become fragile.
Study finds significant price declines and capital reallocation from centralized to decentralized exchanges after FTX collapse.
problem Quantifying trust dynamics and redistribution between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
method Interdisciplinary approach combining causal inference and computational text analysis.
result Significant price declines and capital reallocation from centralized to decentralized exchanges following the FTX collapse.
SRR detects early signs of financial crises using multi-layer graphs.
problem Predicting systemic financial transitions from evolving market interactions.
method Systemic Risk Radar (SRR) models financial markets as multi-layer graphs.
result Graph-derived features provide useful early-warning signals compared to feature-based models.
AutoQuant addresses cryptocurrency backtesting fragility by modeling execution costs and improving strategy selection.
problem Fragile backtests of cryptocurrency perpetual futures ignoring microstructure frictions and execution costs.
method Execution-centric framework with Bayesian optimization, double screening, and strict T+1 semantics.
result Fee-only and zero-cost backtests overestimate returns, highlighting the importance of modeling execution costs.
Be Water: An Evolutionary Proof for Trend-Followingphysics.soc-ph
Trend-following strategies outperform in a noisy financial market, mirroring ancient wisdom.
problem Navigating the complex, noisy financial market environment.
method Agent-based model with 10,000 agents representing different trading strategies.
result Trend-following strategies are structurally more robust than mean-reversion strategies.
Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from Chinaq-fin.GN
The prevalent view in the economics literature is that a high level of infrastructure investment is a precursor to economic growth. China is especially held up as a model to emulate. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, this paper punctures the twin myths that, first, infrastructure creates economic value, and, se…
A Kyle-inspired model with adaptive agents explains excess volatility and volatility clustering.
problem Reconciling asymmetrically informed traders with adaptive market hypothesis.
method Proposes a model with adaptive agents using inductive reasoning, reconciling Kyle model with Adaptive Market Hypothesis.
result Microfoundations for GARCH models and volatility clustering explained.
Credit and liquidity risks represent main channels of financial contagion for interbank lending markets. On one hand, banks face potential losses whenever their counterparties are under distress and thus unable to fulfill their obligations. On the other hand, solvency constraints may force banks to recover lost funding…
CoCos can increase financial fragility in certain network structures.
problem The effectiveness of CoCos in enhancing financial stability depends on the network structure.
method Analysis of phase transitions in a network of interconnected banks.
result CoCos can increase financial fragility under certain network structures.
We introduce a general framework for models of cascade and contagion processes on networks, to identify their commonalities and differences. In particular, models of social and financial cascades, as well as the fiber bundle model, the voter model, and models of epidemic spreading are recovered as special cases. To uni…
Study quantifies systemic risk in DeFi using network analysis.
problem Systemic risk in decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.
method Network-based fragility analysis of TVL dynamics.
result Developed CFI and RCS to quantify structural fragility and risk contribution.
Study examines financial market structure changes during the COVID-19 crash using a novel MI approach.
problem Analyzing nonlinear dependencies among major stocks during market crashes.
method Conditional p-threshold mutual information (MI) and Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) framework.
result Financial networks become more integrated during crashes, with increased periphery vulnerability.
Study on information cascade fragility under mismatched revealing probabilities.
problem Analyzing the fragility of information cascades in decision-making processes with imperfect knowledge of revealing probabilities.
method Examined sequential decision-making models with players having private information and imitating previous decisions. Studied the effect of a mismatch between players' beliefs and actual revealing probabilities.
result Derived closed-form expressions for optimal learning rates and identified phase transitions in the behavior of asymptotic learning rates.
Project forecasts liquidity withdrawal using machine learning models.
problem Predicting liquidity withdrawal at individual stock levels.
method Tested a framework using machine learning models (AR, HAR, XGBoost) on Nasdaq MBO data.
result Introduced the Liquidity Withdrawal Index (LWI) for measuring liquidity removal.
Optimal Network Compressionq-fin.RM
Paper tackles optimal network compression for financial systems.
problem Optimal network compression for financial systems under shocks.
method Formulated as an NP-hard problem, studied systemic risk measures, and analyzed specific networks.
result Systemic fragility results no longer hold generally under shocks and heterogeneous networks.
In this paper we characterise the propensity of big capital investments to systematically deliver poor outcomes as "fragility," a notion suggested by Nassim Taleb. A thing or system that is easily harmed by randomness is fragile. We argue that, contrary to their appearance, big capital investments break easily - i.e. d…
Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the interbank lending market as an important diffusion channel for financial distress d…