A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New model for multivariate discrete event data with flexible interactions.
Upper bound on expected supremum of Bernoulli process.
Methodology for estimating marked Hawkes processes with neural networks.
A new method for efficient nonlinear process monitoring using random Bernoulli features.
The beta-Bernoulli process provides a Bayesian nonparametric prior for models involving collections of binary-valued features. A draw from the beta process yields an infinite collection of probabilities in the unit interval, and a draw from the Bernoulli process turns these into binary-valued features. Recent work has …
This paper proposed a new regression model called -regularized outlier isolation and regression (LOIRE) and a fast algorithm based on block coordinate descent to solve this model. Besides, assuming outliers are gross errors following a Bernoulli process, this paper also presented a Bernoulli estimate model which, …
We introduce a novel multivariate random process producing Bernoulli outputs per dimension, that can possibly formalize binary interactions in various graphical structures and can be used to model opinion dynamics, epidemics, financial and biological time series data, etc. We call this a Bernoulli Autoregressive Proces…
New model captures time and mark inter-dependence in TPPs.
We develop a quasi-likelihood analysis procedure for a general class of multivariate marked point processes. As a by-product of the general method, we establish under stability and ergodicity conditions the local asymptotic normality of the quasi-log likelihood, along with the convergence of moments of quasi-likelihood…
We introduce a class of hybrid marked point processes, which encompasses and extends continuous-time Markov chains and Hawkes processes. While this flexible class amalgamates such existing processes, it also contains novel processes with complex dynamics. These processes are defined implicitly via their intensity and a…
Proposes a non-parametric method for deep discrete latent variable models.
This paper extends the analysis of Muni Toke and Yoshida (2020) to the case of marked point processes. We consider multiple marked point processes with intensities defined by three multiplicative components, namely a common baseline intensity, a state-dependent component specific to each process, and a state-dependent …
New method models MTPP without predefined intensity functions.
New acquisition functions improve Bernoulli LSE.
Physics-informed model predicts beam stiffness and monitors structural health.
Neural marked point processes show saturation with complexity, leading to new simple architectures.
Framework handles both exchangeable and non-exchangeable event sequences without tuning.
A new method clusters rows of a matrix of point processes.
Paper introduces a neural network-based non-stationary influence kernel for complex event data.
The paper models user-advertiser interactions using point processes.
Spectral method speeds fitting of binary time series models.
The paper extends consistency results for sequential design strategies to vector-valued Gaussian processes.
A new method for pricing derivatives using self-exciting dynamics and finite-difference transforms.
In a wide variety of applications, humans interact with a complex environment by means of asynchronous stochastic discrete events in continuous time. Can we design online interventions that will help humans achieve certain goals in such asynchronous setting? In this paper, we address the above problem from the perspect…
This paper introduces the factorial marked temporal point process model and presents efficient learning methods. In conventional (multi-dimensional) marked temporal point process models, event is often encoded by a single discrete variable i.e. a marker. In this paper, we describe the factorial marked point processes w…
We develop constructions for exchangeable sequences of point processes that are rendered conditionally-i.i.d. negative binomial processes by a (possibly unknown) random measure called the base measure. Negative binomial processes are useful in Bayesian nonparametrics as models for random multisets, and in applications …
A new framework generates high-dimensional event sequences efficiently.
Data processing inequalities link Fisher information to local differential privacy constraints.
A new framework predicts links in time-dependent networks using Bernoulli autoregression.
The paper proves ML estimators are strongly consistent for identifying edge weights in BAR models.
If a variational problem comes with no boundary conditions prescribed beforehand, and yet these arise as a consequence of the variation process itself, we speak of a free boundary values variational problem. Such is, for instance, the problem of finding the shortest curve whose endpoints can slide along two prescribed …
Characterizes symmetric Bernoulli distributions with minimal convex sums.
Motivated by the prediction of cell loads in cellular networks, we formulate the following new, fundamental problem of statistical learning of geometric marks of point processes: An unknown marking function, depending on the geometry of point patterns, produces characteristics (marks) of the points. One aims at learnin…
A new RBM model handles both linear and log-amplitude spectrograms.
Study applies Hawkes volatility to mid-price process for real-time risk management.
This paper addresses the mapping problem. Using a conjugate prior form, we derive the exact theoretical batch multi-object posterior density of the map given a set of measurements. The landmarks in the map are modeled as extended objects, and the measurements are described as a Poisson process, conditioned on the map. …
We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a multivariate Bernoulli process with auto-regressive feedback in the high-dimensional setting where the number of samples available is much less than the number of parameters. This problem arises in learning interconnections of networks of dynamical systems with …
We study the stochastic control problem of maximizing expected utility from terminal wealth under a non-bankruptcy constraint. The wealth process is subject to shocks produced by a general marked point process. The problem of the agent is to derive the optimal insurance strategy which allows "lowering" the level of the…
The key idea of Bayesian optimization is replacing an expensive target function with a cheap surrogate model. By selection of an acquisition function for Bayesian optimization, we trade off between exploration and exploitation. The acquisition function typically depends on the mean and the variance of the surrogate mod…
We describe the combinatorial stochastic process underlying a sequence of conditionally independent Bernoulli processes with a shared beta process hazard measure. As shown by Thibaux and Jordan [TJ07], in the special case when the underlying beta process has a constant concentration function and a finite and nonatomic …
Exact asymptotic solutions found for nonlinear Hawkes processes.
In this paper, we consider the multivariate Bernoulli distribution as a model to estimate the structure of graphs with binary nodes. This distribution is discussed in the framework of the exponential family, and its statistical properties regarding independence of the nodes are demonstrated. Importantly the model can e…
Finite index solutions to Bernoulli problem are always axially symmetric.
Proposes a new framework to disentangle event influences in MTPP.
A simple Hawkes model have been developed for the price tick structure dynamics incorporating market microstructure noise and trade clustering. In this paper, the model is extended with random mark to deal with more realistic price tick structures of equities. We examine the impact of jump in price dynamics to the futu…
A beta-negative binomial (BNB) process is proposed, leading to a beta-gamma-Poisson process, which may be viewed as a "multi-scoop" generalization of the beta-Bernoulli process. The BNB process is augmented into a beta-gamma-gamma-Poisson hierarchical structure, and applied as a nonparametric Bayesian prior for an infi…
Proves a principle for one-phase Bernoulli problem minimizers.
Study optimal stopping for diffusion processes with unknown primitives, applying RL and martingale methods.