Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,051 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

3774111148 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for Marginal Joint Log-Likelihood

Derives M2^2VAE objective from marginal joint log-likelihood.

problem Training Multi-Modal Variational Autoencoders (M2^2VAEs).
method Derives trainable evidence lower bound from marginal joint log-likelihood.
result Derives M2^2VAE objective from marginal joint log-likelihood.

Though with progress, model learning and performing posterior inference still remains a common challenge for using deep generative models, especially for handling discrete hidden variables. This paper is mainly concerned with algorithms for learning Helmholz machines, which is characterized by pairing the generative mo…

2016-03-20abs ↗pdf ↗

MIM learns joint distributions with mutual information and low divergence.

problem Learning joint distributions over observations and latent variables.
method Probabilistic auto-encoder with three design principles: low divergence, high mutual information, and low marginal entropy.
result MIM learns representations with high mutual information, consistent encoding and decoding distributions, effective latent clustering, and comparable data log likelihood to VAE.

New model generates graphs with tighter likelihood bounds and better quality.

problem Intractable likelihood of autoregressive graph models.
method Derive exact joint probability, approximate node orderings, variational inference.
result Lower bound on log-likelihood is significantly tighter than previous methods.

New method uses joint stochastic approximation to improve learning of discrete latent models.

problem Challenges in learning discrete latent variable models, especially with inference model gradients and log-likelihood optimization.
method Proposes a new method based on stochastic approximation theory that directly maximizes the target log-likelihood and minimizes the posterior-inference model divergence.
result Consistently outperforms recent competitive algorithms in generative modeling and structured prediction tasks.

We introduce a deep generative model for functions. Our model provides a joint distribution p(f, z) over functions f and latent variables z which lets us efficiently sample from the marginal p(f) and maximize a variational lower bound on the entropy H(f). We can thus maximize objectives of the form E_{f~p(f)}[R(f)] + c…

2018-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian risk bounds and the Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization risk bounds maximizes the Bayesian marginal likelihood. This provides an alternative explanatio…

2016-05-27abs ↗pdf ↗

This work proposes a new method to estimate joint probability from pairwise marginals, reducing sample complexity.

problem Direct nonparametric estimation of high-dimensional joint probability is infeasible due to the curse of dimensionality.
method Developed a coupled nonnegative matrix factorization (CNMF) framework using only pairwise marginals.
result The method provably recovers the joint probability mass function up to bounded error in finite iterations under reasonable conditions.

Estimates joint probability distribution from 1-way marginals using low-rank tensors and random projections.

problem Nonparametric estimation of joint probability mass function (PMF) from limited data.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition and random projections to link data to PMF estimation.
result Estimates joint density from 1-way marginals using transformed space and novel algorithm.

The paper explores the relationship between joint mixability and negative dependence structures.

problem Understanding the connection between joint mixability and various negative dependence concepts.
method Analyzes the properties of joint mixes and their relation to negative dependence structures.
result Derives necessary and sufficient conditions for a joint mix to be negatively dependent.

The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.

problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.

mGRN improves multivariate time series prediction by managing marginal and joint memories.

problem Extracting dependencies in multivariate sequential data with strong serial and cross-sectional dependencies.
method Developed a novel recurrent network architecture, Memory-Gated Recurrent Networks (mGRN), with gates for marginal and joint memories.
result mGRN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art architectures on various public datasets.

Novel upper bound for unsupervised domain adaptation considers joint error.

problem Addressing the issue of mixing samples from different classes when matching marginal distributions.
method Proposes a general upper bound that penalizes undesirable joint error, uses constrained hypothesis space, and introduces cross margin discrepancy.
result Our proposal outperforms related approaches in image classification error rates on domain adaptation benchmarks.

Method estimates joint probability density from samples using low-rank decomposition and random projections.

problem Estimating joint probability density from limited samples.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition, dictionaries, and Radon transforms.
result Algorithm outperforms previous methods in estimating synthetic probability densities.

Introduces joint exclusivity (JE), a new form of negative dependence.

problem Negative dependence structures in probability distributions.
method Defines JE by exclusion of the interior of the non-negative orthant, establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for existence, proposes a canonical construction.
result Sharp necessary and sufficient condition for existence of JE random vectors with prescribed marginals.

Probabilistic embeddings improve speaker diarization accuracy.

problem Improving speaker diarization accuracy using embeddings.
method Extracting x-vectors and precision matrices from speech segments, interfacing with PLDA model, applying agglomerative clustering, joint training of PLDA and extractor.
result Joint training of PLDA and probabilistic x-vector extractor yields accuracy gains.

The paper presents a method to estimate joint interventional distributions from marginal interventional data.

problem Estimating joint interventional distributions from marginal interventional data.
method The paper extends the Causal Maximum Entropy method to use interventional data and employs Lagrange duality to prove the solution lies in the exponential family.
result The method allows for causal feature selection and inference of joint interventional distributions.

New methods improve Bayesian inference and decision-making in online learning.

problem Current Bayesian deep learning does not fully utilize joint predictives for sequential decision-making.
method Proposes new evaluation settings for active learning and active sampling, focusing on marginal and joint cross-entropies.
result Initial experiments suggest challenges in applying current BDL inference techniques in high-dimensional spaces.

The Neural Testbed evaluates joint predictions of neural agents, revealing their limitations.

problem Evaluating the quality of joint predictions generated by neural agents.
method Developed an open-source benchmark (The Neural Testbed) to assess agents' marginal and joint predictions.
result Popular Bayesian deep learning agents perform poorly on joint predictions, even with accurate marginal predictions.

New decision-theoretic characterization separates belief and decision posteriors.

problem Understanding the conditions under which loss-based updating coincides with Bayesian updating.
method Decision-theoretic approach to distinguish belief and decision posteriors.
result Generalized Bayes coincides with ordinary Bayesian updating only if the loss is proportional to negative log-likelihood.

KIPLMC methods improve statistical inference in latent variable models.

problem Statistical inference in latent variable models.
method Joint diffusion process in parameter and latent variable spaces, with two explicit discretizations.
result KIPLMC methods achieve accelerated convergence rates in Wasserstein-2 distance.

This paper uses HCR to predict bid-ask spreads from accessible data.

problem Predicting bid-ask spreads from incomplete data.
method Hierarchical correlation reconstruction (HCR) to model conditional distributions.
result Accurate predictions of bid-ask spreads with interpretable coefficients.

Generative models often fail to preserve joint structure despite matching marginals.

problem Generative models fail to capture complex dependencies beyond univariate marginals.
method Introduced D_Sigma(P,Q) = ||Sigma_P - Sigma_Q||_F to measure covariance-level dependence fidelity.
result Covariance-level divergence can lead to structural instability in downstream inference.

The marginal maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation problem, which calculates the mode of the marginal posterior distribution of a subset of variables with the remaining variables marginalized, is an important inference problem in many models, such as those with hidden variables or uncertain parameters. Unfo…

2013-02-26abs ↗pdf ↗

A statistical test of independence may be constructed using the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) as a test statistic. The HSIC is defined as the distance between the embedding of the joint distribution, and the embedding of the product of the marginals, in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). It has …

2015-01-25abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper examines how heavy-tailed risks behave under Gaussian copula models.

problem Understanding tail risk probabilities with heavy-tailed marginal risks and Gaussian dependence.
method Modeling heavy-tailed risks using regular variation and analyzing tail probabilities under Gaussian copula.
result The rate of decay of tail set probabilities varies with the type of tail sets and Gaussian correlation matrix.

New method for online learning in interacting particle systems.

problem Parameter estimation in stochastic interacting particle systems.
method Stochastic approximation of gradient of asymptotic log likelihood using continuous observations.
result Convergence to stationary points of asymptotic log-likelihood under suitable assumptions.

Evidential Softmax preserves multimodality in sparse probability distributions for generative models.

problem Sparse probability distributions in deep generative models make exact marginalization computationally intractable.
method Introduce ev-softmax, a sparse normalization function that preserves multimodality and can be trained with probabilistic loss functions.
result ev-softmax outperforms existing techniques in distributional accuracy and dimensionality reduction.

We improve GANs by enforcing reproducibility and using non-uniform sampling.

problem Overrepresentation of certain samples in GANs' marginal log-likelihood.
method Enforce reproducibility through matching empirical distribution to prior, use non-uniform sampling for mini-batch selection.
result Improved quality and variety in generated samples, validated on CIFAR10, Fashion MNIST, and CelebA.

Due to the intractable partition function, the exact likelihood function for a Markov random field (MRF), in many situations, can only be approximated. Major approximation approaches include pseudolikelihood and Laplace approximation. In this paper, we propose a novel way of approximating the likelihood function throug…

2018-03-27abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes a parallelizable clustering method for multivariate data.

problem The standard model-based clustering method assumes the same number of clusters per margin, which is often unrealistic.
method Developed a finite mixture model per margin with different numbers of clusters, and used a game-inspired algorithm to cluster multivariate data.
result The proposed method shows good performance in various scenarios and real datasets.

Improved forecasting of financial risk using Diffusion-Copula framework.

problem Capturing complex, asymmetric dependence structures in financial markets.
method Explicitly decouples marginal distribution learning from dependence structure using Mixture Density Networks and Classification-Diffusion Copula.
result Superior performance in forecasting systemic extremes of marginal and joint events.

New JSA autoencoders tackle discrete latent variable models for semi-supervised learning.

problem Handling discrete observations and latent codes in deep generative models.
method Joint-stochastic-approximation (JSA) autoencoders that directly maximize data log-likelihood and minimize KL divergence.
result JSA autoencoders achieve comparable performance to continuous latent space models in semi-supervised tasks.

Unpaired multi-domain causal representation learning is possible with sufficient conditions.

problem Learning shared causal representation from unpaired data across domains.
method Identify sufficient conditions for joint distribution and shared causal graph recovery.
result Practical method to recover shared latent causal graph from marginal distributions.

Paper introduces CWDAE for better synthetic data generation.

problem Measuring discrepancy between generative and ground-truth distributions.
method Introduces mixture Cramer-Wold distance for joint and marginal distributional learning.
result CWDAE shows remarkable performance in generating synthetic data.

Extends SW and GSW to compare heterogeneous joint distributions.

problem Limited applicability of SW and GSW to heterogeneous joint distributions.
method Introduces HHRT and PGRT to extend SW and GSW.
result H2SW distance for heterogeneous joint distributions.

Bayesian scores improve structure learning in probabilistic circuits.

problem Improper structure learning in probabilistic circuits based on heuristics.
method Developed Bayesian structure scores for deterministic PCs, using them in a greedy cutset algorithm.
result Effective protection against overfitting and fast, almost hyper-parameter-free structure learner.

We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for nn observations is estimated from a random subset of mm observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the log-likelihood based on control variates, such that the computing cost is much smal…

2014-04-16abs ↗pdf ↗