Historical income per capita data follow hyperbolic growth patterns.
problem Economic stagnation and Malthusian traps in historical data.
method Fitting hyperbolic distributions to GDP/capita and population data.
result Income per capita growth was monotonic and without transitions.
Historical economic growth in Asia (excluding Japan) is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used (but not analysed) during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malthusian…
Galor's mysterious income growth rate is debunked, revealing data manipulation.
problem Mysterious sudden spurt in income per capita growth rate.
method Mathematical analysis of historical world economic growth data.
result The sudden spurt in income per capita growth rate is an artifact of data presentation.
Historical economic growth in countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used, but not analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malt…
Historical economic growth in Latin America is analysed using the data of Maddison. Unified Growth Theory is found to be contradicted by these data in the same way as it is contradicted by the economic growth in Africa, Asia, former USSR, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and by the world economic growth. Paradoxically, U…
AdamZ optimiser improves neural network training efficiency.
problem Challenges in optimisation like overshooting and stagnation.
method Dynamic learning rate adjustment based on overshoot and stagnation factors.
result Consistently minimises loss function, improving model performance.
The Unified Growth Theory is a puzzling collection of myths based on illusions created by hyperbolic distributions. Some of these myths are discussed. The examination of data shows that the three stages of growth (Malthusian Regime, Post-Malthusian Regime and Modern Growth Regime) did not exist and that Industrial Revo…
Gradient descent stagnates in low-precision, but unbiased rounding schemes improve convergence.
problem Stagnation of gradient descent in low-precision computation.
method Proposed unbiased stochastic rounding schemes that trade zero bias for larger probability of preserving small gradients.
result Unbiased rounding methods typically improve convergence rate of gradient descent for convex problems.
A statistical analysis of financial, economic, and demographic indicators performed by the authors demonstrates (1) that the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian Trap yet; (2) that this countries are not likely to follow the "North African path" and to achieve this…
The aim of this paper is to compare statistical properties of stock price indices in periods of booms with those in periods of stagnations. We use the daily data of the four stock price indices in the major stock markets in the world: (i) the Nikkei 225 index (Nikkei 225) from January 4, 1975 to August 18, 2004, of (ii…
New study shows deep networks generalize well due to loss surface geometry.
problem Why deep networks generalize well despite many parameters.
method Analyzed local geometry of loss surface and its effect on SGD.
result SGD stays close to low-dimensional subspace, leading to better generalization bounds.
This paper presents a dynamic model to study the impact on the economic outcomes in different societies during the Malthusian Era of individualism (time spent working alone) and collectivism (complementary time spent working with others). The model is driven by opposing forces: a greater degree of collectivism provides…
Simplifies analysis of hyperbolic distributions in demographic and economic research.
problem Fundamental postulates of demographic and economic research contradicted by data.
method Simple method of reciprocal values for identifying and analyzing hyperbolic distributions.
result Fundamental postulates of demographic and economic research are incorrect.
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. They demonstrate convincingly that the takeoffs from stagnation to growth, claimed in the Unified Growth Theory, never happened. This theory is again contradicted by data, which were used, but never properly analysed, during its formulation. The absence of the cl…
This paper designs sensor arrays for estimating unsteady flows efficiently.
problem Estimating high-dimensional unsteady flow fields with limited sensor placement.
method Combines data-driven modeling, Kalman Filter design, and sparsification for sensor selection.
result Proposed sensor arrays are highly effective for flow-field estimation across various conditions.
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search …
Growth of monetary assets and debts is commonly described by the formula of compound interest which for the case of continuous compounding is the exponential growth law. Its differential form is dc/dt = i c where dc/dt describes the rate of monetary growth, i the compounded interest rate and c the actual principal. Exp…
Proposes r2SGLD for efficient constrained exploration in non-convex learning.
problem Stagnation in high-temperature chains of reSGLD in distribution tails.
method r2SGLD: replica exchange with reflection steps in a bounded domain.
result Reflection steps enhance mixing rates with quadratic improvement in domain diameter.
Machine learning improves RNA secondary structure prediction.
problem Stagnant performance of RNA secondary structure prediction methods.
method Machine learning, especially deep learning, is used to predict RNA secondary structures.
result Machine learning methods have improved the prediction of RNA secondary structures.
New sampler tackles complex discrete energy landscapes efficiently.
problem Stagnation in gradient-based discrete samplers for non-convex settings.
method DREXEL sampler with Replica Exchange and Adjusted Metropolis.
result Proves samplers satisfy detailed balance and converge to target distribution.
Gradient descent with biased rounding errors converges faster under certain conditions.
problem Stagnation or negative impact of rounding errors in neural network training with low precision.
method Analysis of gradient descent with stochastic fixed-point rounding errors under the Polyak-Lojasiewicz inequality.
result Biased rounding errors can improve convergence rates, especially when the Polyak-Lojasiewicz inequality holds.
Unified framework detects change-points and estimates parameters in nonlinear systems with regime switching.
problem Detecting change-points and estimating parameters in nonlinear dynamical systems with regime transitions.
method Residual-loss anomaly analysis of physics-informed neural networks, two-stage strategy.
result The method outperforms traditional approaches in change-point localization and parameter estimation accuracy.
Fairness criteria may harm over time, contrary to conventional wisdom.
problem The impact of fairness criteria on long-term population well-being.
method Study of fairness criteria in a one-step feedback model, analyzing long-term outcomes.
result Static fairness criteria do not necessarily promote improvement over time and may cause harm.
Study compares altcoins to Bitcoin, analyzing their features and market performance.
problem Comparing altcoins to Bitcoin to understand market performance and features.
method Used Google Trend data, price, volume, and market capitalization data from coinmarketcap.com.
result Features of Litecoin, Zcash, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Gold affect market performance and user preferences.
Improved quantum control fidelity for noisy systems using differential evolution.
problem Stagnation in non-convex optimization for noisy quantum dynamics.
method Employed differential evolution algorithms to optimize quantum control parameters.
result Achieved superior fidelity and scalability in quantum phase estimation and gate design.
New method helps nonconvex optimization algorithms avoid local minima.
problem Nonconvex optimization problems often get stuck in local minima.
method Run-and-Inspect Method: Adds inspection phase to existing algorithms.
result Approximate R-local minimizers are globally optimal under certain conditions.
Empirical study shows second-order methods improve non-convex ML problems.
problem Slow convergence and hyper-parameter sensitivity in first-order methods.
method Sub-sampled trust region and adaptive regularization with cubics algorithms.
result Second-order methods are computationally competitive and robust to hyper-parameters.
New method improves SACOBRA's performance on high-conditioning optimization problems.
problem High-conditioning optimization problems with expensive objective functions.
method Online whitening applied to SACOBRA in the black-box optimization paradigm.
result Online whitening reduces optimization error by a factor of 10 to 1e12 compared to plain SACOBRA.
This paper improves bandwidth selectors for SPBNs to enhance their performance.
problem Suboptimal density estimation and reduced predictive performance in SPBNs due to normal rule bandwidth selection.
method Theoretical framework for state-of-the-art bandwidth selectors (cross-validation and plug-in methods) are established and evaluated.
result Cross-validation selectors outperform the normal rule, especially in high sample size scenarios.
Dual labor market model explains low inflation despite low unemployment.
problem Low inflation despite low unemployment during economic recovery.
method Minimal model of dual labor market to explore factors affecting Phillips curve.
result Changes in bargaining power and labor supply elasticity make Phillips curve flat.
New findings show Bregman proximal algorithms can get stuck near non-stationary points.
problem Bregman proximal algorithms can get stuck near non-stationary points, misleadingly suggesting convergence.
method Analysis of Bregman proximal algorithms and their behavior near non-stationary points.
result Bregman proximal algorithms can get stuck near spurious stationary points, even in convex problems.
VINNAS uses variational inference to avoid mode collapse in neural architecture search.
problem Mode collapse in gradient-based NAS methods, leading to suboptimal architectures.
method Differentiable variational inference with variational dropout and automatic relevance determination.
result State-of-the-art accuracy with up to twice fewer non-zero parameters.
The paper analyzes deep neural networks' expressivity and training, revealing critical expressivity issues.
problem Critical expressivity issues in deep neural networks.
method Quantitative analysis using Hilbert space and Hermite polynomials for feature mapping and activation function design.
result Deep neural networks evolve to the edge of chaos, but expressivity depends on overcoming convergence.
Unified Growth Theory debunked: economic growth is insecure and unsustainable.
problem The mystery of the great divergence in income per capita.
method Analysis of economic data to show that growth trajectories are increasing vertically over time.
result Unified Growth Theory is incorrect and promotes misleading concepts.
New model learns execution of code using GNNs.
problem Stagnation of computer system performance due to Moore's Law.
method Multi-task GNN over low-level code and program state.
result Improved performance on dynamic tasks (26% and 45% over state-of-the-art).
Optimizes solving complex min-max problems with stochastic and nonconvex elements.
problem Min-max problems with stochastic and nonconvex elements.
method Combines conic nonexpansiveness, refined inexact Halpern iteration, and multilevel Monte Carlo estimator.
result Optimal or best-known complexity guarantees for $ρ< rac{1}{L}$, improving previous results.
The paper analyzes RLVR's training dynamics, proving convergence depends on aligning update direction with Gradient Gap.
problem Understanding why RLVR works and its limitations.
method Analysis of RLVR's training process at trajectory and token levels, introducing Gradient Gap.
result Convergence depends on aligning update direction with Gradient Gap, with a sharp step-size threshold.
Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks promise scalable performance in high dimensions.
problem Curse of dimensionality in multilayer perceptrons.
method Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem and interpolation methods.
result Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks achieve true freedom from the curse of dimensionality.
SAGE enhances reinforcement learning by injecting hints to prevent model stagnation.
problem Sparse rewards cause large language models to stall under relative policy optimization.
method SAGE injects privileged hints during training to increase within-group outcome diversity.
result SAGE consistently outperforms GRPO on 6 benchmarks with LLMs, achieving significant improvements.
PRUDEX-Compass evaluates FinRL methods on 6 axes for financial market investments.
problem Insufficient evaluation of FinRL methods in financial markets.
method Introduces PRUDEX-Compass with 6 axes and 17 measures for evaluation.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of PRUDEX-Compass on 4 real-world datasets.
Satellite images predict U.S. county mortality rates.
problem Predicting mortality rates in U.S. counties using satellite imagery.
method Convolutional neural network trained on crude mortality rates, learned features interpreted using Shapley Additive Feature Explanations.
result Predicted mortality from satellite images correlated strongly with true mortality rates (Pearson r=0.72).
Improves SGD convergence by online linear regression of gradients in multiple directions.
problem SGD's rough approximations of gradients lead to suboptimal plateaus and saddle points.
method Online linear regression of noisy gradients using PCA to estimate second-order behavior, and gradient descent outside the subspace.
result Improves convergence by avoiding suboptimal plateaus and saddles, leading to better final values.
Neural networks plateau during training, identified and quantified.
problem Plateau phenomenon in gradient descent training of ReLU networks.
method Identification and quantification of plateau phenomenon; new iterative training method ANLS.
result Plateaux correspond to periods of constant activation patterns; quantification of gradient flow dynamics; characterization of stationary points.
Signed compression progress on a sealed audit is goodhart-resistant.
problem Intrinsic motivation for agents to improve their world models by compressing experience.
method Rewarding agents for the signed decrease of a fixed sealed-audit loss.
result Cumulative reward telescopes exactly to endpoint audit improvement, preventing infinite reward push while true audit performance stagnates.
Deep RL evaluation underestimates uncertainty, leading to misleading conclusions.
problem Statistical uncertainty in deep RL performance evaluations is underestimated, leading to misleading conclusions.
method Advocates for reporting interval estimates of aggregate performance and proposes performance profiles to account for variability.
result Substantial discrepancies in prior performance comparisons are revealed, highlighting the need for more rigorous evaluation methods.