This article presents valuation of Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds) on Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) and empirical test of duration, modified duration and convexity of the T-bonds at MSE in order to determine sensitivity of bonds prices on interest rate changes. The main goal of this study is to determine how standard valuat…
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48 results for “MSE risk”
Heterogeneous Information Network based Default Analysis on Banking Micro and Small Enterprise Usersq-fin.RM
Paper proposes HIDAM model to improve MSE default risk assessment using heterogeneous information networks.
problem Default risk assessment for MSEs due to lack of credit information and diverse financial activities.
method HIDAM model incorporating heterogeneous information networks with multi-typed nodes and links, extracting interactive information through meta-paths, and using a hierarchical attention mechanism.
result HIDAM model outperforms state-of-the-art competitors on real-world banking data.
The study establishes risk bounds for distributional regression estimators.
problem Estimating distributional regression models with nonparametric methods.
method Theoretical bounds for CRPS and MSE are derived for convex and non-convex constraints.
result Theoretical risk bounds are validated through experiments on simulated and real data.
Proposes an efficient shrinkage path for ridge regression.
problem Ill-conditioned data in linear models.
method A new generalized ridge regression shrinkage path that minimizes MSE risk.
result The path is as short as possible while maintaining optimal trade-off.
This paper solves hedging in incomplete markets using neural networks.
problem Hedging in incomplete markets with risk factor, illiquidity, and discrete transaction dates.
method Proposes a jump-diffusion model and uses RNN, LSTM, and Mogrifier-LSTM neural networks for hedging strategies.
result Mogrifier-LSTM is the fastest and most effective model for hedging.
Optimizes shortfall risk using gradient-based methods.
problem Optimizing utility-based shortfall risk measures.
method Gradient-based stochastic optimization, non-asymptotic bounds derivation.
result Non-asymptotic convergence rate for optimizing UBSR.
Estimating Covariance for Global Minimum Variance Portfolio: A Decision-Focused Learning Approachq-fin.PM
Paper uses DFL to optimize portfolio risk and outperforms conventional methods.
problem Optimizing portfolio risk and return under uncertainty.
method Decision-focused learning (DFL) to derive global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP).
result DFL-based methods consistently deliver superior decision performance in portfolio optimization.
Predicts local AQI using mobile sensor data, improving accuracy by 71.654 MSE.
problem Inaccurate AQI data from sparse sensors in developing countries.
method Spatio-temporal GNNs for fine-grained AQI forecasting.
result Significant improvement in AQI prediction accuracy (71.654 MSE reduction).
We consider the problem of learning a dictionary matrix from a number of observed signals, which are assumed to be generated via a linear model with a common underlying dictionary. In particular, we derive lower bounds on the minimum achievable worst case mean squared error (MSE), regardless of computational complexity…
Study shows MSE with sigmoid can match SCE in classification tasks, especially with noisy data.
problem Inconsistent errors in neural network classification tasks.
method Introduced Output Reset algorithm to use MSE with sigmoid activation.
result MSE with sigmoid activation achieves comparable accuracy and convergence rates to Softmax Cross-Entropy, especially in noisy data scenarios.
In this paper, we study the problem of computing -statistics of degree , i.e., quantities that come in the form of averages over pairs of data points, in the local model of differential privacy (LDP). The class of -statistics covers many statistical estimates of interest, including Gini mean difference, Kendal…
Deep nets trained with MSE loss exhibit Neural Collapse, collapsing features and classifiers to class means.
problem Understanding Neural Collapse in MSE-trained deep nets.
method Developed a new MSE loss decomposition and introduced the central path concept.
result Exact dynamics of Neural Collapse along the central path can be predicted.
The Many-to-Many Mapping Between the Concordance Correlation Coefficient and the Mean Square Errorcs.LG
We derive the mapping between two of the most pervasive utility functions, the mean square error () and the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC, ). Despite its drawbacks, is one of the most popular performance metrics (and a loss function); along with lately in many of the sequence prediction…
Gaussian surrogates improve Poisson imaging performance at low doses.
problem Improving Poisson imaging performance at low doses.
method Analysis of Poisson and Gaussian surrogate reconstruction objectives under Poisson noise.
result Gaussian surrogates can achieve MSE comparable to Poisson MAP at low doses.
Enhances Transformers for better risk assessment in finance.
problem Transformer models lack sensitivity to extreme financial losses.
method Integrates Loss-at-Risk function with Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR).
result Improves risk prediction and management in financial datasets.
This work justifies neural collapse under MSE loss and analyzes the optimization landscape.
problem Understanding neural collapse in deep neural networks under MSE loss.
method Global landscape analysis of vanilla nonconvex MSE loss.
result The only global minimizers are neural collapse solutions.
The Theory and Practice of Highly Scalable Gaussian Process Regression with Nearest Neighboursstat.ML
Develops a theoretical framework for scalable Gaussian Process regression methods.
problem Limited scalability of Gaussian Process regression for large datasets.
method Introduces and analyzes Nearest Neighbour Gaussian Process (NNGP) and scalable GPnn methods.
result Derives almost sure pointwise limits for predictive criteria and proves risk minimax rates.
Repeated self-distillation improves model performance significantly.
problem How much gain is possible by applying multiple steps of self-distillation?
method Investigated linear regression tasks, applied multiple steps of self-distillation, analyzed excess risk reduction.
result Multi-step self-distillation reduces excess risk by a factor as large as , where is the input dimension.
Improved nested simulation for financial risk measurement.
problem Efficiently estimating nested risk measures in financial engineering.
method Reusing inner simulation outputs to improve efficiency and accuracy.
result The proposed approach outperforms standard nested simulation and regression methods.
In this manuscript we propose two objective terms for neural image compression: a compression objective and a cycle loss. These terms are applied on the encoder output of an autoencoder and are used in combination with reconstruction losses. The compression objective encourages sparsity and low entropy in the activatio…
New estimators outperform maximum likelihood without hyper-parameter estimation.
problem Improving system identification performance without hyper-parameter estimation.
method Developed generalized Bayes and closed-form biased estimators using excess MSE.
result New estimators have comparable performance to empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator.
Deep learning detects microsleep episodes in EEG data.
problem Automatic detection of microsleep episodes (MSEs) in EEG data.
method Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and LSTM networks were implemented to analyze MWT data.
result Deep learning algorithms showed good performance close to human experts in detecting MSEs.
This paper explains CART random forests using stochastic control theory.
problem Understanding the inner workings of CART random forests.
method Developed a stochastic-control perspective on CART random forests, interpreting feature subsampling as a random feasible action set and the split rule as a policy.
result Established that the CART policy is locally stabilizing but globally suboptimal for the forest objective.
Noise in imputed values corrects biases in machine learning models.
problem Systematic biases in imputed values affect downstream analyses.
method Introducing noise to imputed values to correct biases.
result Noise-corrected imputation methods produce unbiased estimates.
Sampling and Reconstruction of Graph Signals via Weak Submodularity and Semidefinite Relaxationstat.ML
We study the problem of sampling a bandlimited graph signal in the presence of noise, where the objective is to select a node subset of prescribed cardinality that minimizes the signal reconstruction mean squared error (MSE). To that end, we formulate the task at hand as the minimization of MSE subject to binary constr…
We consider the problem of dictionary learning under the assumption that the observed signals can be represented as sparse linear combinations of the columns of a single large dictionary matrix. In particular, we analyze the minimax risk of the dictionary learning problem which governs the mean squared error (MSE) perf…
Study integrates climate and text data to improve credit default prediction.
problem Improving credit risk assessment for mSEs with limited financial histories.
method Multimodal framework using LSTM, GRU, and transformer models.
result Integration of multiple data modalities improves credit default prediction.
Advanced Risk Prediction and Stability Assessment of Banks Using Time Series Transformer Modelsq-fin.RM
Paper uses Time Series Transformer for bank stability prediction.
problem Predicting bank stability using complex financial data.
method Time Series Transformer model with self-attention mechanism.
result Time Series Transformer model outperforms other models in MSE and MAE.
CAEL-MIPS learns embeddings to improve MIPS for better OPE in contextual bandits.
problem High variance in IPS weighting for OPE in large action spaces.
method Context-Action Embedding Learning (CAEL) for MIPS to minimize MSE.
result CAEL-MIPS outperforms baselines in MSE for OPE in contextual bandits.
The paper explains why estimating a history-dependent policy can reduce MSE in reinforcement learning.
problem Understanding why history-dependent policies can improve MSE in off-policy evaluation.
method The paper derives a bias-variance decomposition of MSE for various OPE estimators, showing how history-dependent policies can decrease variance and increase bias.
result History-dependent policies can decrease the variance of importance sampling estimators, leading to lower MSE.
A new KF handles outliers without MSE loss.
problem Outliers degrade Kalman filter performance.
method NUV priors, EM and AM for variance estimation.
result Outlier-insensitive KF outperforms existing methods.
Replacing MSE with f-divergence in diffusion models improves robustness under data contamination.
problem Improving robustness of diffusion models under data contamination.
method Replacing MSE with f-divergence in diffusion models.
result Empirical improvement in performance under data contamination.
The paper explores MAE as a loss function for DNN vector-to-vector regression, proving its advantages over MSE.
problem Improving loss function for deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Presenting performance bounds and new properties of MAE, deriving generalized upper bounds, and interpreting MAE as a Laplacian distribution.
result MAE is a more suitable loss function than MSE for DNN based vector-to-vector regression, especially when errors follow a Laplacian distribution.
We formalize AURC and develop estimators for SC systems.
problem Evaluation of SC systems' performance.
method Formal statistical formulation, Monte Carlo methods, plug-in estimators.
result Plug-in estimators are consistent, with low bias and bounded MSE.
GMADL loss function improves model performance and reduces transaction costs.
problem Overfitting and high transaction costs in high-frequency algorithmic trading models.
method Introduces GMADL loss function for better optimization and feature selection.
result GMADL produces superior results and reduces transaction costs compared to standard loss functions.
Study on LMMSE estimation with model mismatch, quantifying MSE trade-offs.
problem Model mismatch in LMMSE estimation with undermodeling.
method Analyzing the average MSE of LMMSE estimation with random regressors.
result Performance improvement depends on sufficient samples and model complexity.
In this paper, we derive Hybrid, Bayesian and Marginalized Cramér-Rao lower bounds (HCRB, BCRB and MCRB) for the single and multiple measurement vector Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) problem of estimating compressible vectors and their prior distribution parameters. We assume the unknown vector to be drawn from a compr…
Improved covariance matrix estimation for multiple classes with limited data.
problem Estimating covariance matrices for multiple classes with scarce data.
method Coupled regularized sample covariance matrix estimator (RSCM) that combines pooled SCM and scaled identity matrix for regularization.
result The coupled RSCM estimators outperform cross-validation in classification tasks with comparable accuracy but faster computation.
Paper proposes a new autoencoder metric for balanced learning in imbalanced tabular datasets.
problem Challenges of imbalanced self-supervised learning in tabular data.
method Developed a Multi-Supervised Balanced MSE metric to balance learning.
result The new metric outperforms standard MSE in imbalanced datasets.
Enhances ENet's prediction accuracy while maintaining uncertainty estimation.
problem Gradient shrinkage problem in ENet's loss function.
method Proposes a multi-task learning framework with a modified MSE loss function.
result Improves ENet's prediction accuracy without losing uncertainty estimation.
Bagging can significantly improve the generalization performance of unstable machine learning algorithms such as trees or neural networks. Though bagging is now widely used in practice and many empirical studies have explored its behavior, we still know little about the theoretical properties of bagged predictions. In …
Optimized AIS scheme reduces bias and MSE for general proposals.
problem Performing Monte Carlo integration with general proposals.
method Global optimization of χ²-divergence using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics.
result Explicit theoretical guarantees for uniform-in-time MSE reduction.
Modern CATE models often fail to outperform a trivial zero-effect predictor, highlighting significant challenges.
problem Lack of robustness in CATE models when applied to real-world data.
method Large-scale benchmark study using diverse observational sampling strategies and novel statistics.
result 62% of CATE estimates have higher MSE than a trivial zero-effect predictor, indicating poor performance.
This paper introduces minimum-risk recalibration for probabilistic classifiers, improving their reliability and accuracy.
problem Improving the reliability and accuracy of probabilistic classifiers.
method Minimum-risk recalibration within the MSE decomposition framework, analyzing UMB method and label shift adaptation.
result The optimal number of bins for UMB scales with , resulting in a risk bound of approximately .
LeanML reduces machine learning project waste by estimating best performance without training models.
problem Avoidable wastes in machine learning projects.
method Lean design pattern based on mutual information and performance metrics.
result Estimating best performance without training models is faster and cheaper.
The paper analyzes a simple neural network model with algebraic methods.
problem Finding minima of a ridge-regularized mean squared error for ReLU perceptrons.
method Developed a Divide-Enumerate-Merge strategy using computational algebra.
result Identifies both isolated and connected minima of the RR-MSE.
Continuous monitoring of cardiac health under free living condition is crucial to provide effective care for patients undergoing post operative recovery and individuals with high cardiac risk like the elderly. Capacitive Electrocardiogram (cECG) is one such technology which allows comfortable and long term monitoring t…
While the objective in traditional multi-armed bandit problems is to find the arm with the highest mean, in many settings, finding an arm that best captures information about other arms is of interest. This objective, however, requires learning the underlying correlation structure and not just the means of the arms. Se…