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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,694 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for ML Methods

Machine learning (ML) has become a commodity in our every-day lives. We routinely ask ML empowered smartphones to suggest lovely food places or to guide us through a strange place. ML methods have also become standard tools in many fields of science and engineering. A plethora of ML applications transform human lives a…

2018-05-14abs ↗pdf ↗

AI methods are energy-intensive, but efficiency alone isn't enough for sustainability.

problem AI methods are energy-intensive and contribute to climate change.
method Critically examines the limitations of efficiency in improving environmental sustainability of AI.
result Efficiency alone is insufficient to address the environmental impacts of AI.

Deployment of machine learning (ML) algorithms in production for extended periods of time has uncovered new challenges such as monitoring and management of real-time prediction quality of a model in the absence of labels. However, such tracking is imperative to prevent catastrophic business outcomes resulting from inco…

2019-02-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes counterfactual explanations for ML on multivariate time series data.

problem Lack of user trust and difficulty in debugging ML frameworks using multivariate time series data.
method Proposes a novel explainability technique for providing counterfactual explanations.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art explainability methods in metrics like faithfulness and robustness.

Machine learning can improve 2SLS first stage predictions, but nonlinear methods often introduce bias.

problem Improving the first stage of 2SLS using machine learning.
method Decomposed bias into three components, investigated through simulation.
result Nonlinear machine learning methods can introduce substantial bias in second-stage estimates.

Machine learning (ML) techniques are enjoying rapidly increasing adoption. However, designing and implementing the systems that support ML models in real-world deployments remains a significant obstacle, in large part due to the radically different development and deployment profile of modern ML methods, and the range …

2019-03-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Decisions by Machine Learning (ML) models have become ubiquitous. Trusting these decisions requires understanding how algorithms take them. Hence interpretability methods for ML are an active focus of research. A central problem in this context is that both the quality of interpretability methods as well as trust in ML…

2019-01-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine-learning (ML) hardware and software system demand is burgeoning. Driven by ML applications, the number of different ML inference systems has exploded. Over 100 organizations are building ML inference chips, and the systems that incorporate existing models span at least three orders of magnitude in power consump…

2019-11-06abs ↗pdf ↗

We discuss the relevance of the recent Machine Learning (ML) literature for economics and econometrics. First we discuss the differences in goals, methods and settings between the ML literature and the traditional econometrics and statistics literatures. Then we discuss some specific methods from the machine learning l…

2019-03-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Computing the marginal likelihood (ML) of a model requires marginalizing out all of the parameters and latent variables, a difficult high-dimensional summation or integration problem. To make matters worse, it is often hard to measure the accuracy of one's ML estimates. We present bidirectional Monte Carlo, a technique…

2015-11-08abs ↗pdf ↗

We identify a strong equivalence between neural network based machine learning (ML) methods and the formulation of statistical data assimilation (DA), known to be a problem in statistical physics. DA, as used widely in physical and biological sciences, systematically transfers information in observations to a model of …

2017-10-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Floods are among the most destructive natural disasters, which are highly complex to model. The research on the advancement of flood prediction models contributed to risk reduction, policy suggestion, minimization of the loss of human life, and reduction the property damage associated with floods. To mimic the complex …

2019-08-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Review and benchmark 58 feature selection methods for ML applications.

problem Selecting appropriate features for predictive modeling in ML applications.
method Synthesizes literature on feature selection benchmarking and evaluates 58 methods.
result Well-performing candidate methods identified: random forest, DISR, JIM.

We propose a new neural sequence model training method in which the objective function is defined by αα-divergence. We demonstrate that the objective function generalizes the maximum-likelihood (ML)-based and reinforcement learning (RL)-based objective functions as special cases (i.e., ML corresponds to α0α\to 0 and R…

2017-06-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning and deep learning infer surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data.

problem Inferring surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data with high temporal resolution.
method Application of machine learning and deep learning algorithms to infer surface/groundwater exchange flux from subsurface temperature observations.
result DL methods outperform ML methods in interpreting noisy temperature data, especially with a smoothing filter.

Causal ML methods failed to validate their personalized treatment effects in two large trials.

problem Validating causal machine learning methods for personalized treatment effects in precision medicine.
method Assessed 17 mainstream causal heterogeneity ML methods using two large randomized controlled trials.
result None of the ML methods reliably validated their performance, internal or external, showing significant discrepancies between training and test data.

Paper proposes mechanism learning to reverse causal inference in ML.

problem Machine learning models learn associational, not causal, relationships.
method Causally weighted Gaussian mixture models (CW-GMMs).
result CW-GMMs can deconfound observational data for reverse causal inference.

Develops fair feature importance scores for tree-based models to interpret fairness.

problem Ensuring fairness in machine learning models, especially tree-based ones.
method Inspired by decision trees, proposes a novel fair feature importance score based on mean decrease in group bias.
result Valid interpretations of fairness for tree-based ensembles and surrogates of other ML systems.

BAR reprograms black-box ML models for transfer learning with scarce data.

problem Transfer learning with limited data and resources.
method Zeroth-order optimization and multi-label mapping techniques to reprogram black-box models.
result BAR outperforms state-of-the-art methods and baseline transfer learning approaches.

Despite the high interest for Machine Learning (ML) in academia and industry, many issues related to the application of ML to real-life problems are yet to be addressed. Here we put forward one limitation which arises from a lack of adaptation of ML models and datasets to specific applications. We formalise a new notio…

2019-11-06abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper derives uncertainty quantification for ML models used in metrology.

problem Uncertainty quantification for ML models in metrology applications.
method Analytical expressions for mean and variance of model output are derived for various ML models.
result The derived expressions cover multiple ML models and are validated against Monte Carlo methods.

Most modern supervised statistical/machine learning (ML) methods are explicitly designed to solve prediction problems very well. Achieving this goal does not imply that these methods automatically deliver good estimators of causal parameters. Examples of such parameters include individual regression coefficients, avera…

2016-07-30abs ↗pdf ↗

New method reduces errors in pricing and sensitivities for discontinuous payoffs.

problem Errors in pricing and sensitivities for discontinuous payoffs in digital and barrier options.
method Alternative methods for estimating sensitivities, including likelihood ratio and hybrid methods.
result New methods substantially reduce test errors in prices and sensitivities.