Study examines how MFI ratings and loan features influence online microfunding behavior.
problem Understanding the impact of MFI ratings and loan features on lending behavior.
method Quantitative data mining techniques, focusing on Kiva's online platform.
result MFI ratings and loan features significantly influence lending behavior.
mFI-PSO generates effective adversarial images for DNNs.
problem Vulnerability of DNNs to small perturbations in images.
method Uses mFI for pixel selection and PSO for objective functions.
result mFI-PSO effectively designs flexible adversarial images.
Proposes MFI for non-linear learning to explain complex feature interactions.
problem Lack of straightforward interpretation for non-linear learning models.
method Introduces Measure of Feature Importance (MFI) for any learning machine.
result MFI detects and explains complex feature interactions.
A control-theoretic model tackles microfinance sustainability issues.
problem High default rates in microfinance due to lack of data and information.
method A novel control-theoretic model that learns microfinance decision policies.
result The model achieves financial inclusion, fairness, social welfare, and sustainability.
Entropy-based GP adaptive design improves failure probability estimation.
problem Limited accuracy in failure probability estimation due to model evaluation costs.
method Entropy-based Gaussian process (GP) adaptive design combined with multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS).
result More accurate failure probability estimates and higher confidence.
Improved MACD trading strategies with other indicators for better performance.
problem Evaluating the effectiveness of MACD-based trading strategies in the US stock market.
method Backtested various MACD-based trading strategies on US stock indices using Python.
result Win-rate of MACD strategies improved with other momentum indicators, leading to a new VPVMA indicator.
AlphaX uses AI to outperform Brazilian stock market benchmarks.
problem AI strategies often overperform in backtests but underperform in real markets due to lookahead bias.
method Controlled simulations to mitigate lookahead bias, using Value Investing principles.
result AlphaX strategy outperforms major benchmarks and technical indicators.
The study examines biases in Kiva.org's microfinance platform and proposes methods to mitigate them.
problem Identifying and mitigating hidden biases in lender preferences for different sectors on Kiva.org.
method The study uses causal inference and regression models with Bayesian variable selection methods to investigate and quantify biases. Fairness constraints are then incorporated to maintain comparable results.
result The influence of economic factors and loan attributes on lender preferences varies by sector, and models can be adjusted to mitigate biases.
The paper models SOFR and EFFR dynamics, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
problem Updating interest rate models for SOFR, which is becoming a key benchmark.
method Calibrates a model to SOFR and EFFR futures prices, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
result The model reflects key empirical features of SOFR dynamics and reconciles diffusive and piecewise paths.
There are more than eight hundred interest rates published in China bond market every day. Which are the benchmark interest rates that have broad influences on most interest rates is a major concern for economists. In this paper, multi-variable Granger causality test is developed and applied to construct a directed net…
The study proposes algorithms to minimize rating discordance in missing data.
problem Missing ratings in combined rating lists.
method Optimization models and algorithms that minimize total rating discordance.
result The proposed methods outperform state-of-the-art imputation methods in accuracy.
Overrides of credit ratings are important correctives of ratings that are determined by statistical rating models. Financial institutions and banking regulators agree on this because on the one hand errors with ratings of corporates or banks can have fatal consequences for the lending institutions and on the other hand…
Model credit ratings using economic states with Markov chains.
problem Credit rating migration influenced by economic state changes.
method Developed a Markov chain model for credit ratings conditional on economic states.
result Derived asymptotic behavior of the rating process using Markov theory.
The paper analyzes how learning rate affects SGD and provides insights into optimal rates.
problem Understanding the impact of learning rate on stochastic gradient descent.
method Developed a learning-rate-dependent stochastic differential equation (lr-dependent SDE) to analyze SGD.
result Established a linear rate of convergence for SGD and found the optimal linear rate by analyzing the spectrum of the Witten-Laplacian.
This paper models short rates with jumps using PDEs.
problem Capturing jumps and spikes in interest rates.
method PDE approach for pricing interest rate derivatives.
result Established Feynman-Kač representation and derived solutions.
The paper explores using set-level ratings for better user-item preference prediction in recommender systems.
problem Capturing user preferences on individual items using set-level ratings.
method Developed collaborative filtering-based methods to model user behaviors in set-level ratings.
result Collaborative filtering-based models can recover and predict user preferences on individual items using set-level ratings.
In this survey paper we discuss recent advances on short interest rate models which can be formulated in terms of a stochastic differential equation for the instantaneous interest rate (also called short rate) or a system of such equations in case the short rate is assumed to depend also on other stochastic factors. Ou…
New definition for forward rates in multi-state models.
problem Defining forward rates in multi-state models.
method Established a theoretical framework and provided a novel definition.
result Interchanged transition probabilities and intensities in Kolmogorov forward equations.
We first show that there are in fact triangular arbitrage opportunities in the spot foreign exchange markets, analyzing the time dependence of the yen-dollar rate, the dollar-euro rate and the yen-euro rate. Next, we propose a model of foreign exchange rates with an interaction. The model includes effects of triangular…
A novel approach models rating transitions using Lie groups and Deep Learning.
problem Modeling rating transitions with geometric properties and stochastic processes.
method Introducing Itô-SDEs on Lie groups, using TimeGAN for calibration, and examining rating matrix properties.
result The geometric approach using Lie groups and Deep Learning generates a good fit for rating transitions.
Following widely used in visual recognition concept of relative attributes, the article establishes definition of the relative PCA attributes for a class of objects defined by vectors of their parameters. A new rating model (RELARM) is built using relative PCA attribute ranking functions for rating object description a…
Paper examines pricing and hedging for cross-currency swaps referencing backward-looking rates.
problem Pricing and hedging cross-currency swaps with backward-looking rates.
method Uses interest rate and currency futures for hedging, analyzes arbitrage-free multi-curve setting.
result Explicit pricing and hedging results for CCBS with backward-looking rates.
Develops a model for cryptocurrency interest rates.
problem Modeling interest rates for cryptocurrencies.
method Term structure model with zero short rate, price processes of crypto bonds, and expressions for forward rates.
result Model can be calibrated to market data and uses strict local martingales for pricing kernels.
Method calibrates local volatility and stochastic short rate models for equity-rate dynamics.
problem Joint calibration of local volatility and stochastic short rate models.
method Iterative approach using semimartingale optimal transport.
result Demonstrated performance on market data using European SPX options and cap interest rate options.
This paper analyzes the robust growth rate of leveraged ETFs under uncertain parameters.
problem Analyzing the robust long-term growth rate of leveraged ETFs with uncertain parameters.
method Derive worst-case parameters using comparison principle and martingale extraction method.
result Explicitly obtain robust long-term growth rates under various models.
Large initial learning rate helps neural nets generalize better.
problem Understanding why large initial learning rates lead to better neural net generalization.
method Developed a proof for a two-layer network and demonstrated with experiments on CIFAR-10.
result Proved that a two-layer network trained with a large initial learning rate and annealing generalizes better than one trained with a small learning rate.
Examines SOFR derivatives pricing and hedging post-LIBOR discontinuation.
problem Pricing and hedging of SOFR derivatives post-LIBOR discontinuation.
method One-factor model based on Vasicek's equation for overnight interest rates dynamics.
result Arbitrage-free pricing and hedging of SOFR derivatives instruments.
Abstract Coxeter groups have growth rates that are Perron numbers.
problem Understanding growth rates of Coxeter groups.
method Defined a class of Coxeter groups, ∞--spanned, and analyzed their growth rates. result For ∞--spanned Coxeter groups, geodesic growth rate strictly dominates word growth rate and appears to be a Perron number. Approximates bond option volatilities using affine short-rate models.
problem Calculating implied volatilities for bond options.
method Derive asymptotic approximation for bond option volatilities under affine short-rate dynamics.
result Accuracy of approximation validated through numerical experiments.
Paper finds funding rates on BitMEX predict Bitcoin inverse swap contracts.
problem Understanding the relationship between BitMEX funding rates and Bitcoin derivatives.
method Examined Heteroskedasticity of funding rates, established Granger causality, developed GARCH models for prediction.
result Funding rates on BitMEX predict Bitcoin inverse swap contracts.
In this paper, we give a new sharp generalization bound of lp-MKL which is a generalized framework of multiple kernel learning (MKL) and imposes lp-mixed-norm regularization instead of l1-mixed-norm regularization. We utilize localization techniques to obtain the sharp learning rate. The bound is characterized by the d…
The currency carry trade is the investment strategy that involves selling low interest rate currencies in order to purchase higher interest rate currencies, thus profiting from the interest rate differentials. This is a well known financial puzzle to explain, since assuming foreign exchange risk is uninhibited and the …
A new CIR# model preserves volatility and tractability for short-term interest rates.
problem Inadequacy of CIR model for negative short rates and skewed distributions.
method Developed CIR# model to fit term structure of short interest rates.
result Preserves volatility and analytical tractability of original CIR model.
Estimates the maximal rate of convergence for Ricci flow solutions.
problem Understanding the maximal rate of convergence of Ricci flow solutions.
method Estimates the rate from above for solutions converging to solitons.
result Solutions converging faster than any fixed exponential rate must be self-similar.
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all nominal interest rates remain positive in the model. We give examples where our mode…
The paper introduces a new short rate model with memory components.
problem Modeling short rate dynamics with past values.
method Integrates memory (delay) components into Merton or Vasiček models.
result Analytical solutions for bond prices and forward rates.
Rate-In dynamically adjusts dropout rates during inference to improve uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Static dropout rates lead to suboptimal uncertainty estimates in neural networks.
method Rate-In dynamically adjusts dropout rates using information-theoretic principles.
result Rate-In improves calibration and sharpens uncertainty estimates compared to fixed or heuristic dropout rates.
This paper shows how forward rate interpolations are equivalent to discount factor interpolations in yield curve construction.
problem The challenge of choosing between different interpolation methods for yield curve construction.
method Demonstrates the equivalence between forward rate interpolations and discount factor interpolations.
result Some popular interpolation methods on forward rates are equivalent to classical interpolation methods on discount factors.
We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of the past rates in the exchange …
Clarifies interest rate cap rules for loans with unconventional cash flows.
problem Ambiguity in applying interest rate caps to loans with non-conventional internal rate of return (IRR).
method Clarified conventional IRR definition, axiomatized, and extended to all loans.
result Unique extension of interest rate cap rule for all loans, based on net present value test.
Cyclical learning rate improves neural machine translation performance.
problem Optimizing learning rate for neural machine translation.
method Applied cyclical learning rate to transformer-based neural networks.
result Cyclical learning rate significantly impacts neural machine translation performance.
Proves lower discount rates are needed for future losses.
problem Determining appropriate discount rates for future losses.
method Analyzes climate change and discount rates debate.
result Risk requires a lower, not higher, discount rate.
The study analyzes historical interest rates to predict future discount rates and their implications on climate change.
problem Predicting future discount rates to inform climate change mitigation policies.
method Constructed real interest rates using historical data and a stochastic model (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck).
result Only 4 out of 14 countries have positive long-run discount rates, suggesting urgent action on climate change.
Rate GENERIC extends thermodynamics principles to non-equilibrium systems.
problem Understanding non-equilibrium thermodynamics and its relation to equilibrium thermodynamics.
method Developed a geometrical framework for rate GENERIC, extending Onsager's variational principle.
result Rate GENERIC structure provides a new perspective on thermodynamics in non-equilibrium systems.
Developed unbiased estimators for Heston model with stochastic interest rates.
problem Estimating the Heston model with stochastic interest rates.
method Combined unbiased estimators with the Heston model and developed a semi-exact log-Euler scheme.
result Convergence rate of O(h) in the L2 norm for a wide range of models. We introduce here for the first time the long-term swap rate, characterised as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore we analyse the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, see Biagini et al. [2018], Biagini and Härtel [2014], and El Karoui et a…
New methods improve recommendation accuracy for users and items with few ratings.
problem Skewed distribution and low ratings affect recommendation accuracy.
method Four matrix completion-based approaches: FARP, TMF, TMF + Dropout, IFWMF.
result Improved prediction accuracy for users and items with few ratings.
Two-dimensional transition rates improve life insurance reserve calculations.
problem Calculating life insurance reserves with Markov assumptions.
method Introducing two-dimensional forward and backward transition rates.
result Two-dimensional transition rates enable more accurate reserve calculations.