Adaptive volatility method improves probabilistic financial forecasting.
problem Probabilistic forecasting in financial markets.
method Adapts classical time-varying volatility models with online stochastic optimization.
result Ranked 5th in M6 financial forecasting competition.
The study compares M6 competitors' performance to industry benchmarks and discusses incentives for investment managers.
problem Investors seek to understand the performance and skill of M6 competitors beyond the competition's metrics.
method Comparative analysis using financial metrics, factor models, and new strategies.
result Most competitors do not generate significant out-performance compared to industry benchmarks, but some show skill in recent performance.
Investment challenge study finds luck and strategy equally important.
problem The role of luck and strategic considerations in M6 investment challenge performance.
method Introduced a stylized model to derive and analyze a portfolio strategy.
result Improving chances of winning without attaining abnormal returns possible.
This paper won 1st place in forecasting and investment challenges, improving on meta-learning and parametric models.
problem Forecasting and investment challenges in time-series data.
method Hypernetworks and adversarial portfolios to design time-series models.
result Outperformed state-of-the-art meta-learning methods and conventional parametric models.
We compute for all orientable irreducible geometric 3-manifolds certain complexity functions that approximate from above Matveev's natural complexity, known to be equal to the minimal number of tetrahedra in a triangulation. We can show that the upper bounds on Matveev's complexity implied by our computations are sharp…
Proposes CoPO, a new policy optimization method for competitive games.
problem Designing efficient optimization methods for competitive Markov decision processes.
method Competitive policy optimization (CoPO) approach that exploits game-theoretic nature of competitive games.
result Stable optimization, convergence to sophisticated strategies, and higher scores compared to baseline methods.
Kaggle competitions offer valuable insights for business forecasting.
problem Lack of attention to Kaggle competitions in academic forecasting studies.
method Review of results from six Kaggle competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks.
result Global ensemble models outperform local single models in Kaggle competitions.
The origin of economic crises is a key problem for economics. We present a model of long-run competitive markets to show that the multiplicity of behaviors in an economic system, over a long time scale, emerge as statistical regularities (perfectly competitive markets obey Bose-Einstein statistics and purely monopolist…
New framework promotes reproducible, domain-agnostic reinforcement learning algorithms.
problem Domain-specific, compute-resource-maximizing, and non-reproducible participant solutions in reinforcement learning competitions.
method Submission retraining, domain randomization, desemantization through domain obfuscation, and compute/environment-sample budget limitation.
result Participant submissions are reproducible, non-specific to the competition environment, and sample/resource efficient.
The real estate is a pillar industry of China's national economy. Due to changes in policy and market conditions, the real estate companies are facing greater pressures to survive in a competitive environment. They must improve their financial competitiveness. Based on the conceptual framework of financial competitiven…
First ABAW 2020 Competition analyzes affective behavior tasks.
problem Automatic analysis of valence-arousal, basic expressions, and action units in real-world scenarios.
method Provided Aff-Wild2 database, described Challenges, evaluation metrics, and top-performing systems.
result Demonstrated the feasibility of automatic affective behavior analysis in real-world settings.
Study examines machine learning competitions' impact on AI development.
problem Fostering innovation and skill development in AI.
method Analysis of major competition platforms, workflows, and participant demographics.
result MLCs promote collaboration, reproducibility, and continuous innovation in AI.
Bayesian rating system for large competitions improves prediction and efficiency.
problem Rating systems for large, competitive events like online programming contests.
method Developed a Bayesian rating system for many participants, proving robustness and runtime.
result The system outperforms existing systems in accuracy and computation speed.
MineRL Competition reduced reinforcement learning sample needs.
problem Sample inefficiency in reinforcement learning.
method Human demonstrations and imitation learning integrated into reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Top solutions used deep reinforcement learning and imitation learning.
This paper evaluates financial competitiveness of Indian real estate companies using entropy method.
problem Improving financial competitiveness of Indian real estate companies in a competitive market.
method Financial competitiveness evaluation index system using key financial ratios and a scoring system.
result Companies with high scores have strong profitability and operational capacity, while those with lower scores struggle with solvency and working capital.
Paper tackles online optimization with memory and competitive control.
problem Minimizing hitting and switching costs in online optimization problems.
method Optimistic Regularized Online Balanced Descent algorithm.
result Achieves a constant, dimension-free competitive ratio.
In this paper, the optimal pricing strategy in Avellande-Stoikov's for a monopolistic dealer is extended to a general situation where multiple dealers are present in a competitive market. The dealers' trading intensities, their optimal bid and ask prices and therefore their spreads are derived when the dealers are info…
Model predicts growth competition on curved surfaces.
problem Growth dynamics of two subsets on Riemannian manifolds.
method Modeling growth rates on spherically symmetric Riemannian manifolds.
result Conditions for bounded or unbounded growth on different manifolds.
Market competition depends on computational complexity, P != NP makes it impossible.
problem Competitive market outcomes require computational intractability.
method Analyzes the computational hardness of collusion detection in markets.
result If P != NP, collusion detection is computationally infeasible, making collusion unstable.
The M5 competition tackles overdispersed retail sales forecasting with GAMLSS.
problem Overdispersed and zero-inflated retail sales data.
method Distributional forecasting using GAMLSS framework.
result GAMLSS provides better probabilistic forecasting for count data.
Model predicts competition between similar products in sales.
problem Predicting cannibalization between similar products in sales.
method Developed a neural network model that computes a 'competitiveness' function based on product features.
result The model outperforms traditional methods in predicting market share.
The NIPS 2018 Adversarial Vision Challenge is a competition to facilitate measurable progress towards robust machine vision models and more generally applicable adversarial attacks. This document is an updated version of our competition proposal that was accepted in the competition track of 32nd Conference on Neural In…
Improved forecasting in daily time series competition using a correlator method.
problem Forecasting daily time series with data leakage issues.
method Ensemble of five statistical forecasting methods and a correlator method.
result The correlator method was responsible for most of the gains over naive forecasting.
Data competitions rely on real-time leaderboards to rank competitor entries and stimulate algorithm improvement. While such competitions have become quite popular and prevalent, particularly in supervised learning formats, their implementations by the host are highly variable. Without careful planning, a supervised lea…
We introduce an irreversible discrete multiplicative process that undergoes Bose-Einstein condensation as a generic model of competition. New players with different abilities successively join the game and compete for limited resources. A player's future gain is proportional to its ability and its current gain. The the…
Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay constant λ=0.12. We use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Global …
We present a broad agenda for meaningful banking regulation reform aiming the creation of evolutive competitive environment to maximize the effectiveness of international financial system through the introduction of fair competition process among the banks in free market capitalism. We assume that the international fin…
FLAIR measures LP competitiveness in AMMs, improving LP performance evaluations.
problem LP returns are affected by both market risk and competitive strategies.
method Introduces FLAIR metric to quantify LP competitiveness and assesses its impact on LP returns.
result FLAIR captures dynamic behavior of LPs and differentiates between active provisioning strategies.
Kaggle chronicles 15 years of competitions, innovation, and data science.
problem Exploring 15 years of data science competitions and innovations.
method Longitudinal trend analysis and exploratory data analysis of millions of kernels and discussion threads.
result Kaggle is a growing platform with diverse use cases and adaptable Kagglers.
A competition increases financial transaction models' robustness against attacks.
problem Neural networks used by banks are vulnerable to adversarial attacks in financial transaction data.
method A novel competition where participants propose attacks and defenses, simulating real-world conditions.
result Participants' strategies and outcomes provide insights into improving financial transaction models' robustness.
This work bridges competitive learning with gradient-based learning for faster feature extraction.
problem Lack of powerful feature extractors in competitive learning methods.
method Introduces gradient-based competitive layers for feature extraction.
result Demonstrates theoretical equivalence and faster convergence of gradient-based competitive layers.
The authors propose a parametric model called the arena model for prediction in paired competitions, i.e. paired comparisons with eliminations and bifurcations. The arena model has a number of appealing advantages. First, it predicts the results of competitions without rating many individuals. Second, it takes full adv…
Study predicts individual treatment effects in ride-sharing competitions.
problem Understanding how team competitions affect individual drivers' outcomes.
method Analyzed data from 500 competitions, built machine learning models.
result Reduced out-sample prediction error by over 24%.
Two-layer model studies reinsurance contracts and competition between insurer and reinsurers.
problem Modeling and analyzing reinsurance contracts and competition between insurer and reinsurers.
method Two-layer stochastic game model with insurer negotiating with reinsurers, and reinsurers competing for business.
result Existence and uniqueness of equilibrium strategies for the insurer and reinsurers, characterized in semiclosed form.
Indirect competition emerged from the complex organization of human societies, and knowledge of the existing network topology may aid in developing effective strategies for success. Here, we propose an agent-based model of competition with systems co-existing in a `small-world' social network. We show that within the r…
The paper analyzes optimal stock position-building strategies in competitive markets.
problem Optimal stock position-building in competitive markets with market impact.
method Developed a game-theoretic framework to find best-response strategies.
result Closed-form solutions for equilibrium trading strategies were derived.
In this model study of the commodity market, we present some evidence of competition of commodities for the status of money in the regime of parameters, where emergence of money is possible. The competition reveals itself as a rivalry of a few (typically two) dominant commodities, which take the status of money in turn…
Competition aims to develop sample-efficient reinforcement learning methods.
problem Limited access to samples in reinforcement learning.
method Develops algorithms leveraging human demonstrations in Minecraft.
result Fosters innovation in sample-efficient reinforcement learning.
To accelerate research on adversarial examples and robustness of machine learning classifiers, Google Brain organized a NIPS 2017 competition that encouraged researchers to develop new methods to generate adversarial examples as well as to develop new ways to defend against them. In this chapter, we describe the struct…
Adaptive learning rate improves FTRL's performance in online learning.
problem Optimizing FTRL's learning rate for competitive regret in online learning.
method Formulated as a sequential decision-making problem, introduced competitive analysis framework, and proposed stability-penalty matching update rules.
result Achieved a constant competitive ratio under specific conditions, enabling Best-Of-Both-Worlds algorithms.
We study the growth dynamics of the size of manufacturing firms considering competition and normal distribution of competency. We start with the fact that all components of the system struggle with each other for growth as happened in real competitive bussiness world. The detailed quantitative agreement of the theory w…
We study a portfolio optimization problem for competitive agents with CRRA utilities and a common finite time horizon. The utility of an agent depends not only on her absolute wealth and consumption but also on her relative wealth and consumption when compared to the averages among the other agents. We derive a closed …
Study liquidity provision with exogenous competition using a reference market maker.
problem Liquidity provision in the presence of exogenous competition.
method Model a reference market maker who optimizes posted depths, competing market makers using a rule of thumb.
result Model admits approximate closed-form solution for a linear-quadratic goal functional.
We develop a probabilistic consumer choice framework based on information asymmetry between consumers and firms. This framework makes it possible to study market competition of several firms by both quality and price of their products. We find Nash market equilibria and other optimal strategies in various situations ra…
Combines gradient-based and competitive learning for unsupervised feature extraction.
problem Handling input data without supervision and replicating input manifold topology.
method Integrates gradient-based and competitive learning approaches to learn topological structures.
result The dual competitive layer outperforms the vanilla layer in high-dimensional datasets.
State-space models win a forecasting competition for unstable data.
problem Forecasting electricity demand during the post-covid period.
method Adapting state-space models to balance time-series adaptability and machine learning complexity.
result State-space models provide a better compromise between adaptability and accuracy for non-stationary data.
LLMs can collude in market divisions, maximizing profits.
problem Strategic collusion of LLM agents in multi-commodity markets.
method Examined LLMs in Cournot competition frameworks, analyzing pricing and resource allocation strategies.
result LLMs can monopolize specific commodities without direct human input or explicit collusion commands.
Model analyzes competitive pricing strategies in large markets of perishable products.
problem Maximizing profits in a competitive market of perishable products.
method Mean-field competition model, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, iterative numerical algorithm.
result Properties of equilibrium pricing strategies and market dynamics.