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48 results for Lucas critique

The paper examines how macroeconomic control tools lost effectiveness, leading to a 'dark ages' period.

problem Loss of effectiveness of control tools in macroeconomic stabilization policy.
method Historical analysis of macroeconomic stabilization policy from 1948 to 1993.
result The overstatement of the Lucas critique and Kydland and Prescott's time-inconsistency led to a period of ineffective stabilization policy.

Develops a generic two-layer framework for adaptive ABMs.

problem Bi-level adaptation problem in ABMs: agents adapt to environment, and environment adapts to agents.
method Formalizes bi-level problem as a Stackelberg game with conditional policies, solving coupled non-linear equations.
result Unified framework for adaptive ABMs, addressing traditional ABM limitations.

Naz and Chaudhry [3] established multiple closed-form solutions for the basic Lucas-Uzawa model. According to Boucekkine and Ruiz-Tamarit [1] and Chilarescu [2] unique closed-form solutions exist for the basic Lucas-Uzawa model. We equate expressions for variables h(t) and u(t). We provide here condition for the unique…

2017-12-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Study links weaving knots with polynomial coefficients and lattice numbers.

problem Understanding polynomial coefficients of weaving knots and their lattice counterparts.
method Established relationships between Jones and Chebyshev polynomials, and derived explicit formulas for Alexander polynomials.
result Proved coefficients of Jones polynomial are Whitney numbers of Lucas lattices and satisfied Fox's trapezoidal conjecture.

The study finds new infinite dilogarithm identities related to number sequences and continued fractions.

problem Finding new infinite dilogarithm identities.
method Demonstrating families of identities associated with specific number sequences and continued fractions.
result New infinite dilogarithm identities related to Fibonacci, Lucas numbers, convergents of even period continued fractions, and recurrence relations.

The aim of this work is to address the description of hyperinflation regimes in economy. The spirals of hyperinflation developed in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua are revisited. This new analysis of data indicates that the episodes occurred in Brazil and Nicaragua can be understood within the frame of the model availabl…

2016-01-01abs ↗pdf ↗

The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since. We have developed an integral technique similar to CUSUM using an empirical model…

2011-03-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning algorithms for prediction are increasingly being used in critical decisions affecting human lives. Various fairness formalizations, with no firm consensus yet, are employed to prevent such algorithms from systematically discriminating against people based on certain attributes protected by law. The aim…

2017-10-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Critiques binary classification evaluation methods, advocating for proper scoring rules.

problem The dominance of top-K metrics and fixed-threshold evaluations in machine learning.
method Introduces a decision-theoretic framework mapping evaluation metrics to their use cases, and implements a clipped Brier score variant.
result Demonstrates the clinical utility of proper scoring rules through a Python package, exttt{briertools}.

This work is a reproducibility study of the paper of Antoniou and Storkey [2019], published at NeurIPS 2019. Our results are in parts similar to the ones reported in the original paper, supporting the central claim of the paper that the proposed novel method, called Self-Critique and Adapt (SCA), improves the performan…

2019-11-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Let β:=σ1σ21β:=σ_1σ_2^{-1} be a braid in B3B_3, where B3B_3 is the braid group on 3 strings and σ1,σ2σ_1, σ_2 are the standard Artin generators. We use Gauss diagram formulas to show that for each natural number nn not divisible by 33 the knot which is represented by the closure of the braid βnβ^n is algebraically slice if an…

2016-04-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Recent work on fairness in machine learning has primarily emphasized how to define, quantify, and encourage "fair" outcomes. Less attention has been paid, however, to the ethical foundations which underlie such efforts. Among the ethical perspectives that should be taken into consideration is consequentialism, the posi…

2020-01-02abs ↗pdf ↗

The gauge theory of arbitrage was introduced by Ilinski in [arXiv:hep-th/9710148] and applied to fast money flows in [arXiv:cond-mat/9902044]. The theory of fast money flow dynamics attempts to model the evolution of currency exchange rates and stock prices on short, e.g.\ intra-day, time scales. It has been used to ex…

2010-06-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Responds to critiques on tests for causal parameter confidence intervals.

problem Testing nominal confidence interval coverage for causal parameters estimated by machine learning.
method Rejoinder to critiques on nearly assumption-free tests.
result Clarifies and supports the original research's approach.

Two-cycle GEILA equilibria are OLG equilibria and vice versa, with applications to indeterminacy and bubbles.

problem Relationship between GEILA and OLG models.
method Proof of equilibrium equivalence and application to indeterminacy and bubbles.
result GEILA and OLG models are equivalent under certain conditions.

The study proves inequalities for area and boundary length of disks in convex manifolds.

problem Proving inequalities for area and boundary length of disks in convex manifolds.
method Analyzing disks with homotopically non-trivial boundaries in manifolds with convex mean curvature boundary and positive scalar curvature.
result Proves an inequality involving area and boundary length of disks.

This article is a response to the recent Worrying Trends in Econophysics critique written by four respected theoretical economists. Two of the four have written books and papers that provide very useful critical analyses of the shortcomings of the standard textbook economic model, neo-classical economic theory and have…

2006-06-01abs ↗pdf ↗

In few-shot learning, a machine learning system learns from a small set of labelled examples relating to a specific task, such that it can generalize to new examples of the same task. Given the limited availability of labelled examples in such tasks, we wish to make use of all the information we can. Usually a model le…

2019-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

There are no solid arguments to sustain that digital currencies are the future of online payments or the disruptive technology that some of its former participants declared when used to face critiques. This paper aims to solve the cryptocurrency puzzle from a behavioral finance perspective by finding the parallelism be…

2018-06-29abs ↗pdf ↗

We study in this work the existence of minimizing solutions to the critical-power type equation gu+h.u=f.un+2n2\triangle_{\textbf{g}}u+h.u = f.u^{\frac{n+2}{n-2}} on a compact riemannian manifold in the limit case normally not solved by variational methods. For this purpose, we use a concept of "critical function" that was original…

2010-10-01abs ↗pdf ↗

ECD algorithm speeds up non-convex optimization, offering quantum and stochastic enhancements.

problem Non-convex optimization challenges in machine learning.
method Energy Conserving Descent (ECD) algorithm, stochastic ECD dynamics (sECD), quantum ECD Hamiltonian (qECD).
result ECD and its quantum version achieve exponential speedup over gradient descent.

AI agents manage portfolios, improving on human oversight.

problem Improving strategic asset allocation for institutional investors.
method 50 specialized agents produce capital market assumptions, construct portfolios, critique, and vote on each other's output.
result Meta-agent compares forecasts with realized returns and improves agent performance.

The paper critiques existing uncertainty concepts and proposes a new decision-theoretic approach.

problem Incoherence in existing discussions of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
method Decision-theoretic perspective that relates uncertainty, predictive performance, and statistical dispersion.
result Popular information-theoretic quantities can be poor estimators but still useful for guiding data acquisition.

A simple method treats heteroscedastic variance variatively, improving model calibration and sample quality.

problem Brittle optimization impacts model likelihoods for mean and variance estimation.
method Proposes a variational approach to heteroscedastic variance, improving predictive mean and variance calibration.
result The proposed method significantly improves parameter calibration and sample quality for regression and VAEs.

Training deep reinforcement learning agents complex behaviors in 3D virtual environments requires significant computational resources. This is especially true in environments with high degrees of aliasing, where many states share nearly identical visual features. Minecraft is an exemplar of such an environment. We hypo…

2019-08-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Automatic summarization of natural language is a current topic in computer science research and industry, studied for decades because of its usefulness across multiple domains. For example, summarization is necessary to create reviews such as this one. Research and applications have achieved some success in extractive …

2018-12-18abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper critiques and expands on common evaluation metrics in machine learning.

problem The common evaluation metrics like Precision, Recall, F-Measure, and Rand Accuracy are biased and misleading.
method The paper introduces new measures like Informedness, Markedness, and Correlation to better reflect the quality of predictions.
result A system that performs worse in terms of Informedness can appear better using common measures like Precision and Recall.

The paper critiques UBI as ineffective for addressing technological unemployment.

problem Technological unemployment due to automation.
method Empirical data analysis and theoretical projections of UBI's impact.
result UBI is not an effective solution for improving living standards and employability among displaced workers.

Consider a feedforward neural network ψ:RdRdψ: \mathbb{R}^d\rightarrow \mathbb{R}^d such that ψfψ\approx \nabla f, where f:RdRf:\mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R} is a smooth function, therefore ψψ must satisfy jψi=iψj\partial_j ψ_i = \partial_i ψ_j pointwise. We prove a theorem that a ψψ network with more than one hidden layer…

2019-10-28abs ↗pdf ↗

PEAR dynamically reconfigures agent roles to prevent persistent biases in multi-agent debates.

problem Persistent positional biases and sensitivity to role assignments in fixed topologies.
method Dynamic reconfiguration of agent roles and sparse topologies based on evolving agent states.
result Significantly improves average accuracy over debate baselines across multiple reasoning benchmarks.

Critiques causal reductionism in financial studies, suggesting alternative approaches.

problem Limitations of unidirectional causation in self-referencing systems like finance.
method Critical assessment of causal inference in empirical finance, using ecological models.
result Current financial tools may be limited to ex post inference, especially in reflexive contexts.

This paper critiques the Standardized Measurement Approach (SMA) for operational risk and recommends maintaining Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA).

problem Weaknesses and failures of the Standardized Measurement Approach (SMA) in operational risk.
method Critical review and analysis of SMA and AMA approaches.
result SMA is unstable, insensitive to risk, and implicitly related to systemic risk in the banking sector.

The paper compares LOCO and Shapley values for feature importance, highlighting their limitations and suggesting improvements.

problem Quantifying feature importance in the presence of feature correlation.
method LOCO and Shapley Values, critiquing their axioms and proposing new measures.
result Shapley values do not eliminate feature correlation, and a modified LOCO is recommended.

This study analyzes app reviews to understand students' behavior in the app market.

problem Extracting sentiment from growing app reviews manually is impractical.
method Used machine learning algorithms with TF-IDF for text representation and ensemble learning for evaluation.
result SVM achieved the highest accuracy (93.37%) on tri-gram + TF-IDF scheme.

The paper critiques the ambiguity of rank-based evaluation methods for entity alignment and link prediction.

problem Ambiguity in evaluating entity alignment and link prediction methods using rank-based scores.
method Analysis of multiple evaluation measures and demonstration of their shortcomings.
result Existing scores cannot reliably compare model performance across different datasets.