Predicts long-term return distributions with time-varying volatility.
problem Risk management in long-horizon returns.
method Predicts future return distributions without specifying volatility dynamics or shock distribution.
result Derives risk measures like VaR and CTE from the predicted return distribution.
State-of-the-art forecasting methods using Recurrent Neural Net- works (RNN) based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) cells have shown exceptional performance targeting short-horizon forecasts, e.g given a set of predictor features, forecast a target value for the next few time steps in the future. However, in many appli…
A framework for learning disentangled representations of symmetric environments.
problem Discovering and modelling the underlying structure of environments.
method Group representation theory for disentangled representations of dynamical environments.
result Our method enables accurate long-horizon predictions and correlates with disentanglement quality.
LLapDiff models irregular multivariate time series without step-by-step integration.
problem Trade-off between discrete and continuous methods for long-horizon forecasting.
method Generative framework that models target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, guided by modal parameterization and Laplace domain poles.
result Improves long-horizon forecasting over baselines and supports missing-value imputation.
A new model decomposes equity returns and volatilities into memory components.
problem Understanding long-term equity dynamics and volatility patterns.
method Proposes a multivariate generalization of the variance ratio to decompose long-horizon equity dynamics.
result Identifies a five-factor model capturing persistent, antipersistent, and multi-scale memory in returns and volatility.
Action-bisimulation learns long-horizon controllability for reinforcement learning.
problem Learning relevant state features in high-dimensional observations for robust reinforcement learning.
method Action-bisimulation encoding, inspired by bisimulation invariance, extends single-step controllability to multi-step.
result Action-bisimulation pretraining improves sample efficiency in various environments.
Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.
problem Understanding effective default correlation from monthly default data.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths.
result Temporal coarse-graining improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
problem Understanding effective default correlation in corporate defaults.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths, applied to corporate default-count data.
result Temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
Behavior cloning training instabilities amplified by SGD noise over long horizons.
problem Training instabilities in behavior cloning with deep neural networks.
method Empirical dissection of minibatch SGD updates and their effects on long-horizon rewards.
result Exponential moving average (EMA) of iterates effectively mitigates gradient variance amplification (GVA).
Agents compose pre-trained policies for complex tasks, improving zero-shot performance.
problem Challenges in long-horizon predictions and estimating visitation distributions induced by policy sequences.
method Learn predictive jumpy world models of multi-step dynamics, enhancing predictions with a consistency objective.
result Compositional planning with jumpy world models yields, on average, a 200% relative improvement over primitive actions on long-horizon tasks.
The paper improves model-based reinforcement learning by using multi-timestep objectives.
problem Compounding errors in one-step dynamics models as trajectory length increases.
method Developed a multi-timestep objective as a weighted sum of losses at various future horizons.
result Exponentially decaying weights significantly improve long-horizon performance.
Max entropy exploration guides reinforcement learning agents to pursue achievable goals.
problem Achieving distant test-time goals in long-horizon tasks.
method Optimize entropy of historical achieved goals by focusing on sparsely explored areas.
result Order of magnitude better sample efficiency on long-horizon multi-goal tasks.
We present relay policy learning, a method for imitation and reinforcement learning that can solve multi-stage, long-horizon robotic tasks. This general and universally-applicable, two-phase approach consists of an imitation learning stage that produces goal-conditioned hierarchical policies, and a reinforcement learni…
FDS tackles long horizon hyperparameter optimization issues.
problem Memory scaling and gradient degradation in long horizon tasks.
method Forward-mode differentiation with sharing (FDS).
result Significantly outperforms greedy gradient-based alternatives.
Framework uses expert intervention to solve long-horizon reinforcement learning tasks.
problem Long horizon robot learning tasks with sparse rewards.
method Option templates and expert intervention to enable high-level task understanding.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art approaches by two orders of magnitude.
TRM improves long-horizon LLM RL by masking divergent sequences.
problem Long-horizon reinforcement learning with LLMs suffers from off-policy mismatch and approximation errors.
method Derives and applies trust region bounds to control divergence, proposing Trust Region Masking.
result First non-vacuous monotonic improvement guarantees for long-horizon LLM-RL.
TRM improves long-horizon reinforcement learning for LLMs by masking divergent sequences.
problem Long-horizon reinforcement learning for LLMs suffers from off-policy mismatch and approximation errors.
method Derives and applies trust region bounds to control divergence, proposing Trust Region Masking.
result First non-vacuous monotonic improvement guarantees for long-horizon LLM-RL.
Soft geometric bias improves physical dynamics predictions.
problem Learning physical dynamics with exact group equivariance can degrade performance.
method Object-centric world models using geometric algebra neural networks.
result Soft geometric inductive bias leads to better physical fidelity predictions.
We introduce a method for learning the dynamics of complex nonlinear systems based on deep generative models over temporal segments of states and actions. Unlike dynamics models that operate over individual discrete timesteps, we learn the distribution over future state trajectories conditioned on past state, past acti…
We propose a hybrid model of portfolio credit risk where the dynamics of the underlying latent variables is governed by a one factor GARCH process. The distinctive feature of such processes is that the long-term aggregate return distributions can substantially deviate from the asymptotic Gaussian limit for very long ho…
Learning to imitate expert behavior from demonstrations can be challenging, especially in environments with high-dimensional, continuous observations and unknown dynamics. Supervised learning methods based on behavioral cloning (BC) suffer from distribution shift: because the agent greedily imitates demonstrated action…
Accelerates TD learning for long-horizon reinforcement learning problems.
problem Slow convergence of conventional TD learning in long-horizon tasks.
method Introduces PID Accelerated Temporal Difference (PID TD) learning algorithms.
result Accelerates convergence of TD learning compared to conventional methods.
As autonomous vehicles (AVs) need to interact with other road users, it is of importance to comprehensively understand the dynamic traffic environment, especially the future possible trajectories of surrounding vehicles. This paper presents an algorithm for long-horizon trajectory prediction of surrounding vehicles usi…
Using reinforcement learning to learn control policies is a challenge when the task is complex with potentially long horizons. Ensuring adequate but safe exploration is also crucial for controlling physical systems. In this paper, we use temporal logic to facilitate specification and learning of complex tasks. We combi…
This work improves RL for complex robotic tasks by guiding exploration with task-specific goal distributions.
problem Solving long-horizon, complex sequential tasks in robotics with sparse rewards.
method Extends hindsight relabelling to task-specific goal distributions using a small set of demonstrations.
result Significantly higher overall performance on complex robotic manipulation tasks.
New method produces coherent forecasts for long-range data.
problem Inaccurate and non-coherent forecasts on long-horizon data.
method Probabilistic forecasting with KL-divergence for coherent aggregates.
result Improves forecast performance across base levels and aggregates.
Study proposes adaptive RL for dynamic portfolio optimization.
problem Traditional portfolio optimization models fail to adapt to regime shifts.
method Regime-aware reinforcement learning framework with hybrid observations and constrained reward functions.
result Transformer PPO achieves highest risk-adjusted returns, while LSTM variants offer a good balance.
This review tackles long horizon forecasting in time series analysis using deep learning.
problem Long horizon forecasting in time series analysis.
method Incorporates deep learning techniques such as trend, seasonality, Fourier and wavelet transforms, and various model architectures.
result LHF is an error propagation problem, with models like xLSTM and Triformer showing better performance.
The study reveals distinct patterns in retail investors' holding periods affecting stock returns.
problem Understanding the impact of retail investors' investment horizons on stock returns.
method Using self-reported holding periods from StockTwits, the study categorizes retail investors into long-horizon and short-horizon groups and analyzes their return patterns.
result Long-horizon retail investors exhibit underreaction to earnings announcements, while short-horizon investors show overreaction.
SGM combines deep learning and planning for robust long-horizon tasks.
problem Combining deep learning and planning for robust long-horizon tasks.
method Sparse Graphical Memory (SGM) that stores states and feasible transitions in a sparse memory, aggregating states according to a two-way consistency objective.
result SGM significantly outperforms current state of the art methods on long horizon, sparse-reward visual navigation tasks.
Paper uses DMD to embed time in spatiotemporal forecasting.
problem Forecasting long-range seasonal dependencies in spatiotemporal data.
method Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) for time representation.
result DMD-based embedding improves long-horizon forecasting accuracy.
Investigates multi-period portfolio optimization for DC plans using buffered Probability of Exceedance.
problem Optimizing long-term Defined Contribution plans with realistic constraints and dynamic dynamics.
method Formulates and solves bilevel optimization problems for pre-commitment and time-consistent Mean-bPoE and Mean-CVaR portfolio optimization.
result Time-consistent Mean-bPoE strategies maintain investor preferences for minimum terminal wealth, unlike Mean-CVaR.
While recent progress in deep reinforcement learning has enabled robots to learn complex behaviors, tasks with long horizons and sparse rewards remain an ongoing challenge. In this work, we propose an effective reward shaping method through predictive coding to tackle sparse reward problems. By learning predictive repr…
This paper introduces a new neural ODE model for continuous-time sequence generation.
problem Representing and predicting continuous-time sequences with high accuracy.
method A neural emission model and neural ODE define the latent state evolution, with an Energy-based model for prior distribution.
result The model outperforms existing methods in various tasks, including long-horizon predictions.
Video prediction models combined with planning algorithms have shown promise in enabling robots to learn to perform many vision-based tasks through only self-supervision, reaching novel goals in cluttered scenes with unseen objects. However, due to the compounding uncertainty in long horizon video prediction and poor s…
Long horizon reinforcement learning is as hard as short horizon learning.
problem Understanding the difficulty of long horizon reinforcement learning problems.
method Introduced new concepts: ε-net for optimal policies and Online Trajectory Synthesis algorithm.
result Proved that sample complexity scales logarithmically with the planning horizon, refuting the conjecture.
The paper clarifies long-horizon investment and DCA, showing no risk reduction but different exposure profiles.
problem Misleading claims about reducing risk with longer investment horizons and DCA.
method Unified probabilistic framework, defining risk and uncertainty, and introducing effective investment exposure.
result Different investment timing strategies can lead to distinct exposure profiles over time, affecting risk and uncertainty.
The objective of this work is to augment the basic abilities of a robot by learning to use new sensorimotor primitives to enable the solution of complex long-horizon problems. Solving long-horizon problems in complex domains requires flexible generative planning that can combine primitive abilities in novel combination…
Many robotic applications require the agent to perform long-horizon tasks in partially observable environments. In such applications, decision making at any step can depend on observations received far in the past. Hence, being able to properly memorize and utilize the long-term history is crucial. In this work, we pro…
For an investor with constant absolute risk aversion and a long horizon, who trades in a market with constant investment opportunities and small proportional transaction costs, we obtain explicitly the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volume. We identify these quantities as…
Compositional diffusion models simulate coupled PDEs efficiently.
problem Efficiently simulating long-horizon coupled PDE systems.
method Diffusion models trained on decoupled data are composed at inference time.
result Compositional diffusion models recover coupled trajectories with low error.
LatentTrack generates model parameters online for nonstationary data.
problem Online probabilistic prediction under nonstationary dynamics.
method Sequential neural architecture with latent filtering and amortized inference.
result Consistently lower negative log-likelihood and mean squared error than baselines.
RLVR training dynamics reveal an implicit curriculum that shapes learning progression.
problem Understanding how RLVR overcomes the long-horizon barrier.
method Developed a theory of training dynamics for RLVR on transformers, using Fourier analysis on finite groups.
result Mixed-difficulty training naturally follows an implicit curriculum, shaping the learning progression from easy to hard.
Spectral portfolio theory links neural networks to wealth dynamics via SGD weight matrices.
problem Understanding wealth dynamics from neural network training.
method Direct identification of weight matrices as portfolio allocation matrices, linking SGD forces to portfolio dynamics.
result Spectral properties of SGD weight matrices transition between additive and multiplicative regimes, influencing wealth dynamics.
Reservoir computing predicts chaotic systems for long horizons with sparse updates.
problem Predicting chaotic systems with long horizons using limited data.
method Sparse, time-dependent data inputs into reservoir computing.
result Achieves arbitrarily long prediction horizons for chaotic systems.
WeldNet reduces complex dynamics to simpler, manageable segments.
problem Complex, high-dimensional time-dependent datasets from physical processes are costly to simulate.
method Windowed Encoders for Learning Dynamics, splitting time domain into windows for nonlinear dimension reduction and propagator training.
result WeldNet captures nonlinear latent structures and dynamics, outperforming existing methods.
NDPs embed dynamical systems into neural networks for efficient sensorimotor learning.
problem Training policies directly in raw action spaces limits scalability for continuous tasks.
method Embed dynamical systems into neural networks to learn robot behaviors via demonstrations.
result NDPs outperform prior methods in both imitation and reinforcement learning setups.
We consider a market consisting of one safe and one risky asset, which offer constant investment opportunities. Taking into account both proportional transaction costs and linear price impact, we derive optimal rebalancing policies for representative investors with constant relative risk aversion and a long horizon.