A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study finds phase transition in context-sensitive language model with short-range interactions.
QTD integrates quantization with diffusion for efficient data generation.
pLSTM tackles long-range language modeling and computer vision tasks with parallelizable linear source transition mark networks.
Within the framework of maximum entropy principle we show that the finite-size long-range Ising model is the adequate model for the description of homogeneous credit portfolios and the computation of credit risk when default correlations between the borrowers are included. The exact analysis of the model suggest that w…
Financial frequency combs emerge from macroeconomic long-range memory.
We consider the problem of learning the structure of Ising models (pairwise binary Markov random fields) from i.i.d. samples. While several methods have been proposed to accomplish this task, their relative merits and limitations remain somewhat obscure. By analyzing a number of concrete examples, we show that low-comp…
We consider the problem of learning the structure of Ising models (pairwise binary Markov random fields) from i.i.d. samples. While several methods have been proposed to accomplish this task, their relative merits and limitations remain somewhat obscure. By analyzing a number of concrete examples, we show that low-comp…
Vanishing and exploding gradients are two of the main obstacles in training deep neural networks, especially in capturing long range dependencies in recurrent neural networks~(RNNs). In this paper, we present an efficient parametrization of the transition matrix of an RNN that allows us to stabilize the gradients that …
The paper introduces a new method to detect rough volatility and market states using fractional derivatives.
Share price returns on different time scales can be well modelled by a superstatistical dynamics. Here we provide an investigation which type of superstatistics is most suitable to properly describe share price dynamics on various time scales. It is shown that while chi-square superstatistics works well on a time scale…
This paper looks into the analysis of the long-range auto-correlations and cross-correlations in bond market. Based on Detrended Moving Average (DMA) method, empirical results present a clear evidence of long-range persistence that exists in one year scale. The degree of long-range correlation related to maturities has…
Research on long-range memory in financial and social systems using various models.
A new method uses burst and inter-burst duration to test long-range memory in financial markets.
Transformers can perform well with less long-range memory.
Improved GNN handles long-range dependencies in multi-relational graphs.
Introduces Spectral Attention for better long-range time series forecasting.
We investigate how simultaneously recorded long-range power-law correlated multi-variate signals cross-correlate. To this end we introduce a two-component ARFIMA stochastic process and a two-component FIARCH process to generate coupled fractal signals with long-range power-law correlations which are at the same time lo…
Optimizes search times by resetting agents when a threshold is reached.
Improved Mamba model for long-range sequence tasks.
Novel graph neural network combines random walks with local message passing.
DRew dynamically rewires message passing to improve long-range tasks.
Fractal analysis is carried out on the stock market indices of seven European countries and the US. We find evidence of long range dependence in the log return series of the Mibtel (Italy) and the PX Glob (Czech Republic). Long range dependence implies that predictable patterns in the log returns do not dissipate quick…
Novel neural network layer improves long-range interactions in point clouds.
A new option pricing model uses a time-varying Hurst exponent for more accurate financial predictions.
HGNet improves GNNs' ability to handle long-range interactions in graphs.
Modeling financial time series by stochastic processes is a challenging task and a central area of research in financial mathematics. As an alternative, we introduce Quant GANs, a data-driven model which is inspired by the recent success of generative adversarial networks (GANs). Quant GANs consist of a generator and d…
This paper studies the dynamics of Brazilian interest rates for short-term maturities. The paper employs developed techniques in the econophysics literature and tests for long-range dependence in the term structure of these interest rates for the last decade. Empirical results suggest that the degree of long-range depe…
This paper presents empirical evidence using recently developed techniques in econophysics suggesting that the degree of long-range dependence in interest rates depends on the conduct of monetary policy. We study the term structure of interest rates for the US and find evidence that global Hurst exponents change dramat…
To simultaneously capture syntax and global semantics from a text corpus, we propose a new larger-context recurrent neural network (RNN) based language model, which extracts recurrent hierarchical semantic structure via a dynamic deep topic model to guide natural language generation. Moving beyond a conventional RNN-ba…
This study uses moving average cluster entropy to analyze financial market dynamics.
We present the Compressive Transformer, an attentive sequence model which compresses past memories for long-range sequence learning. We find the Compressive Transformer obtains state-of-the-art language modelling results in the WikiText-103 and Enwik8 benchmarks, achieving 17.1 ppl and 0.97 bpc respectively. We also fi…
We introduce a new method for detection of long-range cross-correlations and multifractality - multifractal height cross-correlation analysis (MF-HXA) - based on scaling of qth order covariances. MF-HXA is a bivariate generalization of the height-height correlation analysis of Barabasi & Vicsek [Barabasi, A.L., Vicsek,…
IGNN captures long-range graph dependencies using fixed-point equations.
The continuous observation of the financial markets has identified some stylized facts which challenge the conventional assumptions, promoting the born of new approaches. On the one hand, the long-range dependence has been faced replacing the traditional Gauss-Wiener process (Brownian motion), characterized by stationa…
We propose a new method (implemented in an R-program) to simulate long-range daily stock-price data. The program reproduces various stylized facts much better than various parametric models from the extended GARCH-family. In particular, the empirically observed changes in unconditional variance are truthfully mirrored …
FPG uses fractional calculus for efficient reinforcement learning with long-term memory.
Long-range correlation in financial time series reflects the complex dynamics of the stock markets driven by algorithms and human decisions. Our analysis exploits ultra-high frequency order book data from NASDAQ Nordic over a period of three years to numerically estimate the power-law scaling exponents using detrended …
Graph neural networks struggle to propagate long-range information, causing over-squashing.
New model incorporates long-range dependence in mortality rates for better valuation and risk management.
Proving that next-token prediction makes language models generate coherent long documents.
Earlier we proposed the stochastic point process model, which reproduces a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S(f) scaling as power of the frequency f and derived a stochastic differential equation with the same long range memory properties. Here we present a stochastic differential eq…
Representation and learning of long-range dependencies is a central challenge confronted in modern applications of machine learning to sequence data. Yet despite the prominence of this issue, the basic problem of measuring long-range dependence, either in a given data source or as represented in a trained deep model, r…
Analyzed a generalized voter model with power-law herding intensity, revealing anomalous diffusion and long-range memory.
New neural model processes 2D data with long-range dependencies efficiently.
Develops a bi-variate stochastic framework to model mortality and interest rates with long-range dependence.
Cointegration helps insurers understand long-range mortality patterns.
In this work, we develop a novel regularizer to improve the learning of long-range dependency of sequence data. Applied on language modelling, our regularizer expresses the inductive bias that sequence variables should have high mutual information even though the model might not see abundant observations for complex lo…
Missing value imputation is a fundamental problem in spatiotemporal modeling, from motion tracking to the dynamics of physical systems. Deep autoregressive models suffer from error propagation which becomes catastrophic for imputing long-range sequences. In this paper, we take a non-autoregressive approach and propose …