A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model combines long-term and short-term memory using conceptors.
Paper questions RNN and LSTM's long-term memory and introduces a new definition.
Study finds long memory in some emerging Asian stocks but not in developed markets.
We study the long-term memory in diverse stock market indices and foreign exchange rates using the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA). For all daily and high-frequency market data studied, no significant long-term memory property is detected in the return series, while a strong long-term memory property is found in th…
Research on long-range memory in financial and social systems using various models.
It is generally accepted that many time series of practical interest exhibit strong dependence, i.e., long memory. For such series, the sample autocorrelations decay slowly and log-log periodogram plots indicate a straight-line relationship. This necessitates a class of models for describing such behavior. A popular cl…
New method combines long-memory reservoirs for accurate dengue forecasting from short data.
Stable Hadamard Memory improves reinforcement learning by efficiently managing memory.
A new method uses burst and inter-burst duration to test long-range memory in financial markets.
The properties of statistical tests for hypotheses concerning the parameters of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) are investigated, using Monte Carlo techniques. We show that, in the presence of multifractality, conventional tests of long memory tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of no long memory. Ou…
Transformers can perform well with less long-range memory.
One stylized feature of financial volatility impacting the modeling process is long memory. This paper examines long memory for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for Daily REITs and compares the findings for a non- REIT equity index. The paper utilizes a variety of tests for long memory f…
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM), and Memory Networks which contain memory are popularly used to learn patterns in sequential data. Sequential data has long sequences that hold relationships. RNN can handle long sequences but suffers from the vanishing and exploding gradient probl…
Accurate volatility modelling is paramount for optimal risk management practices. One stylized feature of financial volatility that impacts the modelling process is long memory explored in this paper for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for high frequency intraday UK futures. Volatility …
QLSTM outperforms LSTM in predicting KSE 100 index movements.
Extended LSTMs improve volatility prediction by 20%.
The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of stock prices at the transaction level. However, the volatility (defined by absolute return) in the MF…
Neural ARFIMA model improves exchange rate forecasting for BRIC economies.
We study the long memory of order flow for each of three liquid currency pairs on a large electronic trading platform in the foreign exchange (FX) spot market. Due to the extremely high levels of market activity on the platform, and in contrast to existing empirical studies of other markets, our data enables us to perf…
Many robotic applications require the agent to perform long-horizon tasks in partially observable environments. In such applications, decision making at any step can depend on observations received far in the past. Hence, being able to properly memorize and utilize the long-term history is crucial. In this work, we pro…
Current generation of memory-augmented neural networks has limited scalability as they cannot efficiently process data that are too large to fit in the external memory storage. One example of this is lifelong learning scenario where the model receives unlimited length of data stream as an input which contains vast majo…
Learning to remember long sequences remains a challenging task for recurrent neural networks. Register memory and attention mechanisms were both proposed to resolve the issue with either high computational cost to retain memory differentiability, or by discounting the RNN representation learning towards encoding shorte…
We describe a new class of learning models called memory networks. Memory networks reason with inference components combined with a long-term memory component; they learn how to use these jointly. The long-term memory can be read and written to, with the goal of using it for prediction. We investigate these models in t…
Deep neural networks estimate long memory parameters efficiently.
For the London Stock Exchange we demonstrate that the signs of orders obey a long-memory process. The autocorrelation function decays roughly as with , corresponding to a Hurst exponent . This implies that the signs of future orders are quite predictable from the signs of past orde…
RNN-HAR model improves VaR forecasting with long-memory and non-linear dynamics.
In this work we propose a new class of long-memory models with time-varying fractional parameter. In particular, the dynamics of the long-memory coefficient, , is specified through a stochastic recurrence equation driven by the score of the predictive likelihood, as suggested by Creal et al. (2013) and Harvey (2013)…
LEM efficiently models long-term sequences with gradients.
Long and short memory in economic processes is usually described by the so-called discrete fractional differencing and fractional integration. We prove that the discrete fractional differencing and integration are the Grunwald-Letnikov fractional differences of non-integer order d. Equations of ARIMA(p,d,q) and ARFIMA(…
Representation and learning of long-range dependencies is a central challenge confronted in modern applications of machine learning to sequence data. Yet despite the prominence of this issue, the basic problem of measuring long-range dependence, either in a given data source or as represented in a trained deep model, r…
Long short-term memory network outperforms seasonal model in JSE Top 40 forecasting.
A novel online GP model captures long-term memory in sequential data.
Recent empirical studies have demonstrated long-memory in the signs of orders to buy or sell in financial markets [2, 19]. We show how this can be caused by delays in market clearing. Under the common practice of order splitting, large orders are broken up into pieces and executed incrementally. If the size of such lar…
FPG uses fractional calculus for efficient reinforcement learning with long-term memory.
Generative diffusion models mimic biological memory networks, encoding associative dynamics in deep neural weights.
New solver avoids memory issues for long differential equations.
This note develops a stochastic model of asset volatility. The volatility obeys a continuous-time autoregressive equation. Conditions under which the process is asymptotically stationary and possesses long memory are characterised. Connections with the class of ARCH() processes are sketched.
Global Memory Augmentation (GMAT) improves Transformer performance on long documents.
Hydra boosts efficiency for long-context reasoning in resource-constrained settings.
Earlier we proposed the stochastic point process model, which reproduces a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S(f) scaling as power of the frequency f and derived a stochastic differential equation with the same long range memory properties. Here we present a stochastic differential eq…
New algorithms for multitask learning with long-term memory.
NeuroMemFPP uses LSTM to estimate FPP parameters with high accuracy.
Recent empirical results on long-term dependency tasks have shown that neural networks augmented with an external memory can learn the long-term dependency tasks more easily and achieve better generalization than vanilla recurrent neural networks (RNN). We suggest that memory augmented neural networks can reduce the ef…
In this paper, we present Gamma-LSTM, an enhanced long short term memory (LSTM) unit, to enable learning of hierarchical representations through multiple stages of temporal abstractions. Gamma memory, a hierarchical memory unit, forms the central memory of Gamma-LSTM with gates to regulate the information flow into var…
Recurrent neural networks (RNN) are at the core of modern automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. In particular, long-short term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks have achieved state-of-the-art results in many speech recognition tasks, due to their efficient representation of long and short term dependencies …
We study how the round-off (or discretization) error changes the statistical properties of a Gaussian long memory process. We show that the autocovariance and the spectral density of the discretized process are asymptotically rescaled by a factor smaller than one, and we compute exactly this scaling factor. Consequentl…
The paper examines how long-memory dynamics, rough-volatility, and persistence affect equity volatility forecasting.
A new RNN model tackles long-time dependencies with fast, invertible, and memory-efficient hidden states.