A new method selects optimal temperature for Bayesian Deep Learning.
problem Finding the optimal temperature for improving predictive performance in Bayesian Deep Learning.
method Data-driven approach to estimate temperature as a model parameter.
result Our method performs comparably to grid search but at a fraction of the cost.
Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.
problem Understanding effective default correlation from monthly default data.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths.
result Temporal coarse-graining improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
problem Understanding effective default correlation in corporate defaults.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths, applied to corporate default-count data.
result Temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
The paper presents a novel approach to multi-output regression using probabilistic circuits.
problem Capturing correlations between multiple output dimensions in large-scale regression problems.
method Employing a mixture of single-output Gaussian process experts encoded via a probabilistic circuit.
result The method can capture correlations between output dimensions and often outperforms other approaches.
Advances variational Bayesian neural networks using singular learning theory.
problem Discrepancies between predictive performance and variational objective in BNNs.
method Corrected asymptotic form of singular posterior distributions to inform variational family design.
result Improvements in variational free energy and generalization error with proposed normalizing flow.
Anytime-valid confirmation of label-shift corrections
problem Small-batch scientific deployments with scarce labeled outcomes
method Conditional e-value and martingale-based rule
result Nonnegative martingale and anytime-valid confirmation rule
DeRegiME forecasts with regime structure, improving probabilistic predictions across various time series.
problem Probabilistic forecasting discards residual uncertainty, and distribution shifts are hard to capture.
method DeRegiME uses a sparse variational Gaussian process with a nonstationary regime-mixing kernel to separate latent uncertainty regimes.
result DeRegiME improves NLPD by 20.3% on average across benchmarks, with gains on CRPS and MSE.
AutoStan improves Bayesian models via predictive feedback.
problem Improving Bayesian models written in Stan.
method Iterative improvement of Stan models using NLPD and sampler diagnostics feedback.
result AutoStan can autonomously improve diverse Bayesian models across various structures.
We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use of a global-local shrinkage prior for the elements of the factor loadings matrix pulls loadings on superfluous factors…
The main task in oil and gas exploration is to gain an understanding of the distribution and nature of rocks and fluids in the subsurface. Well logs are records of petro-physical data acquired along a borehole, providing direct information about what is in the subsurface. The data collected by logging wells can have si…
Gaussian Processes outperform other models in estimating uncertainty for radiology report observation detection.
problem Uncertainty quantification in automatic data labelling for semi-supervised learning in clinical NLP.
method Investigation of uncertainty estimates from various predictive models using NLPP and MMPCL metrics.
result Gaussian Processes provide superior performance in quantifying uncertainty for radiology report observation detection.
Deep neural networks forecast financial return distributions accurately.
problem Forecasting probability distributions of financial returns.
method Used 1D CNN and LSTM architectures with custom loss functions to optimize distribution parameters.
result LSTM with skewed Student's t distribution outperformed classical models in multiple evaluation metrics.
Paper proposes a new method for learning business process representations.
problem Challenges in capturing all useful information in business process data.
method Combines Gramian Angular Fields and Convolutional Neural Networks for representation learning.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the approach through visualization and multiple process prediction tasks.
TAD efficiently finds optimal settings for advanced manufacturing.
problem Optimizing high-dimensional process control parameters for optimal design features.
method TAD uses Gaussian process surrogate models and optimizes log-predictive likelihood to find optimal settings.
result TAD efficiently locates optimal settings with quantified uncertainty.
Generative adversarial network improves geosteering in fluvial reservoirs.
problem Improving geosteering in complex reservoirs with high uncertainties.
method Generative adversarial deep neural network (GAN) trained to model fluvial successions.
result Reduces uncertainty and correctly predicts geological features up to 500 meters ahead of drill-bit.
MCD reformulates conditional density estimation into binary classification.
problem Conditional density estimation in statistical and machine learning.
method Marginal Contrastive Discrimination, reformulating into marginal and ratio density functions for binary classification.
result Significantly outperforms existing methods on most density models and regression datasets.
Paper proposes MMC to avoid high-density bias in clustering.
problem High-density bias in density-based clustering.
method Introduces mass distribution as a better foundation for clustering, proposing mass-maximization clustering (MMC).
result MMC avoids high-density bias and discovers clusters of arbitrary shapes, sizes, and densities.
New method minimizes robust density power-based divergences for general parametric densities.
problem Computational complexity of minimizing DPD for general parametric densities.
method Stochastic approach to minimize DPD for general parametric density models.
result Proposed method can be applied to minimize other density power-based γ-divergences.
Modes and ridges of the probability density function behind observed data are useful geometric features. Mode-seeking clustering assigns cluster labels by associating data samples with the nearest modes, and estimation of density ridges enables us to find lower-dimensional structures hidden in data. A key technical cha…
Normalizing flows improve density estimation from noisy data.
problem Estimating underlying density from noisy samples.
method Use normalizing flows for density estimation with arbitrary noise distributions, using amortized variational inference.
result Normalizing flows can outperform Gaussian mixtures for density deconvolution.
Study exact minimax rates for density estimation over convex classes, extending previous work.
problem Deriving minimax rates for density estimation over convex density classes.
method Building on Le Cam's work, determine exact minimax rates using local metric entropy.
result Exact minimax rates derived for any convex density class, including nonparametric and parametric cases.
New method uses SoS densities and α-divergences for efficient sequential transport maps.
problem Efficiently generating samples from approximated densities.
method Sequential transport maps using Sum-of-Squares (SoS) densities and α-divergences.
result Convex optimization problems with efficient semidefinite programming solutions.
The volume density of a hyperbolic link is defined as the ratio of hyperbolic volume to crossing number. We study its properties and a closely-related invariant called the determinant density. It is known that the sets of volume densities and determinant densities of links are dense in the interval [0,v_{oct}]. We cons…
TAKDE optimizes kernel density estimation for real-time dynamic processes.
problem Real-time density estimation in applications like computer vision and signal processing.
method Derives asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) upper bound for 'sliding window' kernel density estimator and proposes TAKDE as a novel, theoretically optimal estimator.
result TAKDE outperforms other dynamic density estimators in terms of test log-likelihood and runtime.
Most density-based clustering methods largely rely on how well the underlying density is estimated. However, density estimation itself is also a challenging problem, especially the determination of the kernel bandwidth. A large bandwidth could lead to the over-smoothed density estimation in which the number of density …
Optimizes kernel density ratios for better predictions and information measures.
problem Improving accuracy of kernel density estimates for density ratios.
method Derives an optimal weight function using calculus of variations.
result Reduces bias in kernel density estimates, leading to improved prediction posteriors and information-theoretic measures.
Study finds a linear lower bound on conformal dimension for random hyperbolic groups.
problem Understanding conformal dimension in random hyperbolic groups.
method Building undistorted round trees from lower density groups.
result Achieves a linear lower bound in l at all densities 0<d<1/2. Chia and Nakano (2009) introduced the concept of M-decomposability of probability densities in one-dimension. In this paper, we generalize M-decomposability to any dimension. We prove that all elliptical unimodal densities are M-undecomposable. We also derive an inequality to show that it is better to represent an M-de…
We introduce a novel conditional density estimation model termed the conditional density operator (CDO). It naturally captures multivariate, multimodal output densities and shows performance that is competitive with recent neural conditional density models and Gaussian processes. The proposed model is based on a novel …
Quantum method improves neural density estimation in high dimensions.
problem High-dimensional density estimation with poor performance and high computational complexity.
method Adaptive Fourier features based on quantum density matrices, integrated with neural networks.
result Competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods in various datasets.
Roundtrip uses deep generative models for flexible density estimation.
problem Density estimation in statistics and machine learning.
method Roundtrip is a deep generative neural density estimator that uses flexible mappings.
result Roundtrip achieves state-of-the-art performance in density estimation tasks.
Log-density gradient estimation is a fundamental statistical problem and possesses various practical applications such as clustering and measuring non-Gaussianity. A naive two-step approach of first estimating the density and then taking its log-gradient is unreliable because an accurate density estimate does not neces…
The study proves optimal isoperimetric regions in manifolds with density.
problem Finding optimal regions with minimal boundary area in manifolds with density.
method Proving existence of isoperimetric regions and using subgroup actions.
result Isoperimetric regions in product manifolds are slabs.
Fully augmented links have dense volume densities but discrete in certain ranges.
problem Characterizing the volume density spectrum of fully augmented links.
method Analyzing the ratio of volume to the number of augmentations.
result The set of FAL volume densities is dense in $[2\voct, 10\vtet)$ but discrete in $[\voct,2\voct)$.
Explains BV Laplacian on half-densities in simple terms.
problem None explicitly stated; focuses on explanation.
method Didactical review of BV Laplacian on half-densities.
result Explains BV Laplacian concept in plain language.
Defines hierarchical clustering axioms for various densities.
problem Defining hierarchical clustering for different types of densities.
method An axiomatic approach to piecewise constant densities, then extending to general densities.
result Our axiomatic definition results in Hartigan's cluster tree under certain conditions.
The paper analyzes kNN density estimation's convergence rates under different conditions.
problem Analyzing convergence rates of kNN density estimation under bounded and unbounded support conditions.
method Examined two cases: bounded support with known and unknown support sets, and unbounded support with smooth density function.
result kNN density estimation is minimax optimal under certain conditions and better than kernel density estimation in some cases.
Estimation of density derivatives is a versatile tool in statistical data analysis. A naive approach is to first estimate the density and then compute its derivative. However, such a two-step approach does not work well because a good density estimator does not necessarily mean a good density-derivative estimator. In t…
Develops spherical density-equalizing maps for closed surfaces.
problem Lack of methods for genus-0 closed surfaces.
method Conformal parameterization onto unit sphere, density equalization, quasi-conformal theory, harmonic energy, landmark constraints.
result Landmark-aligned spherical density-equalizing maps balancing different distortion measures.
Adapts RKHS methods to estimate density ratios with optimal error.
problem Estimating density ratios from limited data.
method Minimizes regularized Bregman divergence in RKHS, with Lepskii type parameter choice.
result Adaptive minimax optimal error rate for quadratic loss.
Method uses normalizing flows to efficiently sample from complex target densities.
problem Sampling from complex target densities with zero values in regions of transformation.
method Normalizing flows to address exploding reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence.
result Demonstrated efficient sampling from multi-mode complex density function.
Develops a new density ratio estimator for causal inference.
problem Estimation of density ratio functions in statistics.
method Super learning approach with a novel loss function.
result Empirical validation of the density ratio super learner's performance.
New density estimator from Markov Chains outperforms KDE.
problem Density estimation from Markov Chains.
method Nonparametric density estimator based on Markov Chains.
result Consistent and outperforms KDE in large sample size and high dimensionality.
DADC algorithm improves clustering for data with varying density.
problem Sparse cluster loss and cluster fragmentation in density peak clustering.
method Domain-adaptive density measurement, cluster center self-identification, and cluster self-ensemble.
result DADC achieves more reasonable clustering results on data with varying density.
We find that cusp densities of hyperbolic knots in the 3-sphere are dense in [0,0.6826...] and those of links are dense in [0,0.853...]. We define a new invariant associated with cusp volume, the cusp crossing density, as the ratio between the cusp volume and the crossing number of a link, and show that cusp crossing d…
Density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) is a data clustering algorithm which has the high-performance rate for dataset where clusters have the constant density of data points. One of the significant attributes of this algorithm is noise cancellation. However, DBSCAN demonstrates reduced per…
This paper introduces a probability density estimator based on Green's function identities. A density model is constructed under the sole assumption that the probability density is differentiable. The method is implemented as a binary likelihood estimator for classification purposes, so issues such as mis-modeling and …
Meta-learning improves relative density-ratio estimation from limited data.
problem Estimating relative density-ratios from few instances.
method Meta-learning using neural networks to extract and embed dataset information for relative DRE.
result Meta-learning enables efficient and effective adaptation to few instances for relative DRE.