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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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162324485647 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Locally stationary processes

The paper develops a stationary-distribution theory for Random Forest ensemble size selection.

problem Determining the optimal number of trees in Random Forests.
method Modeling the ensemble size as a birth-death Markov chain and deriving its stationary distribution.
result The stationary ensemble size BB_* scales as O(ε2)O(\varepsilon^{-2}) as ε0\varepsilon\downarrow 0.

The paper examines Nash equilibrium in GANs for stationary Gaussian processes.

problem Existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibrium in GANs for stationary Gaussian processes.
method Analyzes the existence of Nash equilibrium in GANs for stationary Gaussian processes, considering different discriminator families.
result The existence of Nash equilibrium depends on the discriminator family and symmetry properties of the generator family.

This work improves Gaussian process regression for large, non-stationary data.

problem Scalability issues and performance degradation for non-stationary data.
method Combines variational free energy approximations with online expectation propagation and local splitting steps.
result Incremental adaptation to locality, heterogeneity, and non-stationarity in training data.

Proposes a new Bayesian mixture of student-t processes for modeling non-stationary data.

problem Non-stationary data with non-Gaussian errors.
method Bayesian mixture of student-t processes with an overall-local scale structure, using SMC for online inference.
result Superior performance compared to Gaussian processes on real-world data.

We prove a Morrey-type theorem for Hamiltonian stationary submanifolds of Cn\mathbb{C}^{n}. Namely, if LL \subset Cn\mathbb{C}^{n} is a C1C^{1} Lagrangian submanifold with weakly harmonic Lagrangian phase θ,θ, then LL must be smooth. In the process we also discuss a local version of the equation, which is a nonline…

2016-11-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper develops sparse learning for heavy-tailed time series with locally stationary dynamics.

problem Sparse learning for high-dimensional heavy-tailed locally stationary time series.
method Additive modeling with kernel smoothing, sparsity-inducing penalized estimation.
result Prediction-error bounds and convergence rates for different sparsity structures.

The study recovers airflow from thoracic and abdominal movements using advanced signal processing.

problem Challenges in measuring airflow from thoracic and abdominal movements using small, inexpensive devices.
method Synchrosqueezing transform and locally stationary Gaussian process regression.
result Accurate prediction of airflow achieved in both normal sleep and anesthesia transition cases.

Enhances DGPs with adaptive RKHS Fourier features for better non-stationary pattern modeling.

problem Capturing complex non-stationary patterns in non-linear dynamical systems.
method Integrates ODE-based RKHS Fourier features into DGPs using convolution operations for adaptive amplitude and phase modulation. Uses a doubly stochastic variational inference framework.
result Improved predictive performance across various regression tasks.

Paper develops NW kernel estimator for LSPs with Wasserstein bounds.

problem Capturing nuanced dynamics in time series data with evolving statistical characteristics.
method Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing for conditional probability estimation, using Wasserstein and sliced Wasserstein distances.
result Established convergence rates and bounds for NW-based conditional probability estimator in LSPs.

The expressive power of Gaussian processes depends heavily on the choice of kernel. In this work we propose the novel harmonizable mixture kernel (HMK), a family of expressive, interpretable, non-stationary kernels derived from mixture models on the generalized spectral representation. As a theoretically sound treatmen…

2018-10-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Designing a covariance function that represents the underlying correlation is a crucial step in modeling complex natural systems, such as climate models. Geospatial datasets at a global scale usually suffer from non-stationarity and non-uniformly smooth spatial boundaries. A Gaussian process regression using a non-stat…

2015-07-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes speeds up searches for stationary points.

problem Accelerating searches for stationary points on potential energy surfaces.
method Unified Bayesian optimization view using Gaussian process regression with derivative observations, inverse-distance kernels, and active learning.
result Surrogates can reduce the number of expensive electronic structure evaluations by an order of magnitude.

Improved API to achieve optimal error bound and query complexity in local planning.

problem Efficient local planning in discounted MDPs with linear approximation.
method Confident Approximate Policy Iteration (CAPI) for stationary policies, applying to local access simulators.
result Achieves optimal accuracy and query complexity bounds, improving over API.

Study on fake stationary Volterra Heston model for non-stationary processes.

problem Non-stationary nature of true Volterra equations.
method Weak notion of stationarity (fake stationary regime) for inhomogeneous affine Stochastic Volterra equations.
result Existence of limiting distributions in the long run, which may depend on initial state.

We study the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) method in nonconvex optimization problems from the point of view of approximating diffusion processes. We prove rigorously that the diffusion process can approximate the SGD algorithm weakly using the weak form of master equation for probability evolution. In the small ste…

2017-05-22abs ↗pdf ↗

NAST generalizes scattering transform for non-stationary time series analysis.

problem Analyzing non-stationary time series data.
method Neural activation of scattering transform with various activation functions and high pass filters.
result Central and non-central limit theorems for NAST of Gaussian processes.

The problem of time-series clustering is considered in the case where each data-point is a sample generated by a piecewise stationary ergodic process. Stationary processes are perhaps the most general class of processes considered in non-parametric statistics and allow for arbitrary long-range dependence between variab…

2019-06-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Graphs are a central tool in machine learning and information processing as they allow to conveniently capture the structure of complex datasets. In this context, it is of high importance to develop flexible models of signals defined over graphs or networks. In this paper, we generalize the traditional concept of wide …

2016-01-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Efficient GP framework for scalable non-stationary processes.

problem Heavy memory and computational requirements in Gaussian process regression for large data sets.
method Exploits structure in the kernel matrix, uses multiple sets of non-equidistant inducing points, and employs Toeplitz and Kronecker structure for efficient inference.
result Demonstrated scalability on numerical examples and large biomedical datasets.

This study improves estimation of locally stationary functional time series using NW method.

problem Accurately capturing time-dependence in locally stationary functional time series with time-varying covariates.
method Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimation procedure for the conditional distribution of LSFTS.
result Established convergence rates of NW estimator for LSFTS with respect to Wasserstein distance.

Develops a deep non-stationary kernel for non-stationary spatio-temporal point processes.

problem Capturing non-stationary dependencies in point process data.
method Approximates the influence kernel with a novel low-rank decomposition and introduces a log-barrier penalty to maintain non-negativity.
result Demonstrates superior performance and computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Adaptive importance sampling for estimating point process statistics.

problem Estimating the expected value of a statistic of a locally stable point process.
method Adaptive importance sampling with Poisson point processes and cross-entropy minimization.
result The proposed estimator converges to the target value almost surely and is asymptotically normal.

Efficient method classifies locally stationary time series based on second-order characteristics.

problem Classifying locally stationary time series for various applications.
method Autoregressive approximation, ensemble aggregation, distance-based threshold.
result Zero misclassification error rate asymptotically for mildly differing second-order characteristics.

Given an odd vector field QQ on a supermanifold MM and a QQ-invariant density μμ on MM, under certain compactness conditions on QQ, the value of the integral Mμ\int_{M}μ is determined by the value of μμ on any neighborhood of the vanishing locus NN of QQ. We present a formula for the integral in the case where…

2017-01-05abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method for nonstationary Gaussian processes using Fourier features.

problem Efficient simulation of nonstationary Gaussian processes with high-dimensional distributions.
method Discretizes the spectral representation of nonstationary processes, avoiding probability measure assumptions.
result An efficient low-rank approximation of nonstationary spectral densities, consistent and positive semi-definite.

Unified review of methods for inferring non-stationary process parameters.

problem Inferring parameters of non-stationary processes without a known model.
method Unified review and categorization of algorithms for Parameter Inference from a Non-stationary Unknown Process (PINUP).
result Simple statistical features can perform well on non-stationary systems, highlighting gaps in existing methods.

The Bivariate Dynamic Contagion Processes (BDCP) are a broad class of bivariate point processes characterized by the intensities as a general class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. The BDCP describes a rich dynamic structure where the system is under the influence of both external and internal factors model…

2014-05-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper introduces a neural network-based non-stationary influence kernel for complex event data.

problem Modeling complex, non-stationary, and dependent discrete event data.
method Neural Spectral Marked Point Processes (NSMPP) with a versatile non-stationary influence kernel.
result NSMPP outperforms state-of-the-art models on synthetic and real data.

This work explores variably scaled kernels to improve non-stationary Gaussian processes.

problem Limited ability of stationary kernels to represent heterogeneous correlation structures.
method Introduces variably scaled kernels to modify correlation structures explicitly.
result Improved reconstruction accuracy and better uncertainty estimates for non-stationary data.

The paper studies convergence of kernel autocovariance operators for stationary processes.

problem Estimating autocovariance operators of stationary processes on Polish spaces.
method Investigates convergence of empirical estimates of autocovariance operators under various conditions.
result Provides consistency results for kernel PCA and spectral analysis methods.

ETGPSSM efficiently models high-dimensional, non-stationary systems with reduced complexity.

problem Prohibitive computational and parametric complexity in high-dimensional, non-stationary dynamical systems.
method ETGPSSM integrates a single shared GP with input-dependent normalizing flows for scalable and flexible modeling.
result ETGPSSM outperforms existing models in computational efficiency and accuracy.

Flexible GP model improves wind power prediction accuracy.

problem Accurate probabilistic prediction of wind power for grid stability.
method Heteroscedastic non-stationary Gaussian process with generalised spectral mixture kernel.
result The proposed model outperforms conventional GP models in wind power prediction.

Gradient-based optimization methods are the most popular choice for finding local optima for classical minimization and saddle point problems. Here, we highlight a systemic issue of gradient dynamics that arise for saddle point problems, namely the presence of undesired stable stationary points that are no local optima…

2018-05-15abs ↗pdf ↗

A new convolutional spectral kernel network learns hierarchical and local features.

problem Lack of deep learning in non-stationary spectral kernels.
method Introduces convolutional filters and deep architectures into non-stationary spectral kernels, derives generalization error bounds, and introduces regularizers.
result Validated the effectiveness of the convolutional spectral kernel network on real-world datasets.

We propose non-stationary spectral kernels for Gaussian process regression. We propose to model the spectral density of a non-stationary kernel function as a mixture of input-dependent Gaussian process frequency density surfaces. We solve the generalised Fourier transform with such a model, and present a family of non-…

2017-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Green functions on stationary varifolds established with inequalities and convergence results.

problem Establishing Green functions on stationary varifolds with inequalities and convergence.
method Extending Grüter and Widman's method, constructing Green functions, using local Harnack inequality.
result Green functions converge for sequences of stationary varifolds converging with multiplicity one.