A motif-based framework identifies local spillover structures in financial markets.
problem Aggregate risk spillovers obscure local interaction patterns in systemic risk.
method Develops a motif-based framework using multiscale backbones and colored motifs.
result Motif-based portfolios outperform traditional benchmarks on risk-adjusted returns.
Decomposes spillover effects under misspecified exposure mappings.
problem Modeling outcomes as functions of own treatment and a misspecified exposure mapping of others' treatments.
method Pseudo-true estimands and local-global extension for structured misspecification.
result Sharp asymptotic decomposition into direct, local, and global components.
This paper examines cryptocurrency integration with traditional markets, showing how network structure and turbulence influence cross-asset spillovers.
problem Understanding how cryptocurrencies integrate with traditional financial markets and the impact of market stress on cross-asset spillovers.
method Combining rolling correlation networks, community structure, market-specific and system-wide Turbulence Indices, and VAR-based connectedness analysis.
result Cross-asset integration is episodic, with network structure and turbulence playing a role in transmission during stress periods.
We detect and quantify asymmetries in volatility spillovers using the realized semivariances of petroleum commodities: crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil. During the 1987--2014 period we document increasing spillovers from volatility among petroleum commodities that substantially change after the 2008 financial crisi…
Study uses neural networks to filter financial spillovers from noise.
problem Accurately measuring spillovers in financial markets from noise.
method Neural network-based denoising of covariance matrices.
result Developed markets are net transmitters of volatility spillovers, but can become receivers during stress.
Study examines spillovers between BRICS and U.S. staple grain futures markets.
problem Contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects in BRICS staple grain futures markets and their linkages with U.S. markets.
method Examines contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects using econometric models.
result Contemporaneous spillovers dominate, and net spillovers are driven by lagged connectedness. Systemic risk is lower in intra-BRICS markets compared to those including the U.S.
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
problem Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
method Analytical framework for tail dependence, Copula-CoVaR method, ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model.
result The outbreak of the conflict intensified risks in the wheat market the most and showed significant asymmetries in extreme risk spillovers.
Method estimates heterogeneous causal effects on networks using orthogonal learning.
problem Challenges in estimating causal effects on networks due to treatment effects on both treated and neighbors, and network homophily.
method Two-stage orthogonal learning framework: first stage uses graph neural networks for nuisance components, second stage residualizes and interpretable attention-based model for causal effects.
result Improves heterogeneous effect estimation and supports interpretable analyses.
Study shows how China's stock market reflects economic demand changes during COVID-19.
problem Understanding how stock market volatility is influenced by economic demand changes.
method Divided industries into demand-oriented groups and analyzed spillover networks.
result Spillover effects from demand-oriented sectors to consumption-oriented sectors increased during the outbreak.
The paper examines spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon, and climate markets.
problem Understanding dynamic spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon emission, and climate markets.
method A novel R2 decomposed connectedness approach. result Overall spillovers are mainly contemporaneous, not lagged; climate change significantly impacts others; agricultural markets have heterogeneous effects; corn is a major risk contributor.
Improved tail risk forecasting model for assets using CAViaR with spillover effects.
problem Improving tail risk forecasting across assets.
method Component-based CAViaR model with spillover effects, decomposing risk into proper and spillover components.
result Spillover effects significantly improve out-of-sample tail risk forecasts.
Study examines market reactions and spillovers in Japanese bank mergers using multiple methods.
problem Understanding valuation and spillover effects of bank mergers in the Japanese banking sector.
method Combines event study, VAR models, IRFs, and PSM to analyze two M&A events.
result Significant positive market reaction and prolonged positive spillovers detected.
The study finds significant financial sector volatility and tail risk spillovers to real economy sectors.
problem Volatility and tail risk spillovers from financial to real economy sectors.
method New measure of tail risk spillover, empirical analysis of U.S. economy 2001-2011.
result Significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from financial to real economy sectors, especially during crises.
Graph neural networks improve volatility forecasting by capturing spillover effects.
problem Forecasting multivariate realized volatility with spillover effects.
method Customized graph neural networks incorporating spillover effects from multi-hop neighbors.
result Modeling nonlinear spillover effects enhances forecasting accuracy, especially for short-term horizons.
Using a rolling windows analysis of filtered and aligned stock index returns from 40 countries during the period 2006-2014, we construct Granger causality networks and investigate the ensuing structure of the relationships by studying network properties and fitting spatial probit models. We provide evidence that stock …
BSG learns dynamic network spillovers and uncertainty quantification.
problem Identifying indirect spillovers and systemic risk in dynamic networks.
method Bayesian Spillover Graphs using FEVD and Bayesian time series models.
result Significant performance gains over baselines in identifying source and sink nodes.
Study measures risk spillovers between US and China's agricultural futures markets.
problem Interconnectedness and risk transmission in agricultural futures markets.
method TVP-VAR-DY model with quantile method.
result CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat are primary risk transmitters; DCE corn and soybean are main receivers.
We show how bad and good volatility propagate through forex markets, i.e., we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 - 2015 we document the dominating asymmetries in spillovers that are due to bad r…
Unified framework linking firm signals and cross-asset spillovers for SDF estimation.
problem Estimating SDF with cross-asset spillovers and firm-level predictive signals.
method Maximizing Sharpe ratio to jointly estimate signals and spillovers, yielding interpretable SDF.
result SDF consistently outperforms benchmarks across various investment universes and market states.
Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers - are studied using the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model. We account for the p…
The structure of return spillovers is examined by constructing Granger causality networks using daily closing prices of 20 developed markets from 2nd January 2006 to 31st December 2013. The data is properly aligned to take into account non-synchronous trading effects. The study of the resulting networks of over 94 sub-…
Dynamic treatment strategies on networks amplify policy impact through spillovers.
problem Effective dynamic treatment allocation in network settings.
method Q-Ising, a three-stage pipeline integrating Bayesian dynamic Ising model, treatment adoption histories, and offline reinforcement learning.
result Adaptive targeting outperforms static centrality benchmarks in Indian village microfinance networks and synthetic data.
Model forecasts global stock market volatility using dynamic graphs and all trading days.
problem Enhance forecasting accuracy and practical utility in global stock market volatility.
method Spatial-temporal graph neural network architecture to capture volatility spillover effect.
result Forecasting performance surpasses baseline models in all scenarios.
A new model predicts financial volatility across firms using spatial correlations.
problem Predicting financial volatility across firms in a network.
method Heterogeneous spatiotemporal GARCH model with local likelihood estimation.
result The model captures spatial spillovers and contagion effects in financial networks.
Spatial Deconfounder tackles interference and confounding in spatial data.
problem Interference and unmeasured spatial factors confound causal inference in spatial domains.
method Two-stage method using CVAE with spatial prior to reconstruct confounder, then estimate causal effects.
result Nonparametric identification of direct and spillover effects under weak assumptions.
This paper examines momentum spillover across multiple asset classes using only pricing data.
problem Challenges in studying momentum spillover across diverse asset classes due to lack of common characteristics.
method Utilised a linear and interpretable graph learning model to reveal momentum spillover network.
result Network momentum strategy yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.5 and an annual return of 22%.
Study examines cryptocurrency risk spillover effects before and after pandemic.
problem Analyzing risk propagation among cryptocurrencies during extreme events.
method Asymmetric breakpoint approach and network analysis.
result Cryptocurrency risk spillover effect increased during pandemic.
This study analyzes dynamic connectedness in global supply chain infrastructure portfolios, identifying key risk factors and extreme events.
problem Understanding dynamic connectedness in global supply chain infrastructure portfolios under various risk factors and extreme events.
method Time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to study spillover and interconnectedness of risk factors.
result Risk shocks influence dynamic connectedness between portfolios and risk factors, and extreme events affect investment outcomes.
New method estimates treatment effects in network data, accounting for spillover effects.
problem Treatment effect estimation in networks with spillover effects.
method Augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) with cross-fitting and machine learning.
result Semiparametric treatment effect estimator converges at parametric rate and follows Gaussian distribution.
Modeling spillover effects from observational data is an important problem in economics, business, and other fields of research. % It helps us infer the causality between two seemingly unrelated set of events. For example, if consumer spending in the United States declines, it has spillover effects on economies that de…
Crypto markets show negative spillovers between chains, not positive co-movements.
problem Negative spillovers in crypto asset returns across different blockchains.
method On-chain data from multiple blockchains (Ethereum, Solana, Binance, Arbitrum, Avalanche) analyzed over 2022-2025.
result Surges on one chain often coincide with declines on others, especially during attention shocks.
The paper analyzes risk spillovers between AI ETFs, AI tokens, and green markets.
problem Risk spillovers among AI ETFs, AI tokens, and green markets.
method R2 decomposition method
result AI ETFs and clean energy act as risk transmitters, while AI tokens and green assets act as receivers.
Study examines cryptocurrency impacts on financial indices using advanced risk models.
problem Interdependence between cryptocurrencies and financial indices, focusing on risk spillover.
method Hybrid approach integrating GARCH, EVT, and copula functions for risk measures.
result eGARCH-EVT-Copula model outperforms conventional methods in risk estimation.
Study compares sentiment spillover networks from news and social media in tech companies.
problem Understanding how sentiment information flows between companies through news and social media.
method Network-based transfer entropy method to measure and compare sentiment spillover.
result News shows stronger information flow among tech companies after COVID-19.
The paper proposes an evolution-based approach to estimate causal effects in interference networks without fully observing the network structure.
problem Estimating causal effects in complex systems with unobserved interaction pathways.
method An evolution-based approach that characterizes how outcomes change across observation rounds in response to interventions, using an exposure-mapping perspective.
result The approach identifies minimal structural conditions under which evolution mappings exist, enabling consistent learning about heterogeneous spillover effects.
A new framework for causal inference in networked settings.
problem Causal inference under network interference.
method Characterize agent network configuration and use it to estimate treatment effects.
result Finite-sample bounds and asymptotically valid tests for policy irrelevance.
Asymmetries in volatility spillovers are highly relevant to risk valuation and portfolio diversification strategies in financial markets. Yet, the large literature studying information transmission mechanisms ignores the fact that bad and good volatility may spill over at different magnitudes. This paper fills this gap…
Dynamic model captures spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal volatility effects.
problem Analyzing volatility in spatial and temporal networks.
method Dynamic spatiotemporal and network ARCH model with common factors, Bayesian estimation.
result Model captures strong spatial/network interactions and spillover effects.
This paper pretends to analyze the importance which the natural advantages and local resources are in the manufacturing industry location, in relation with the "spillovers" effects and industrial policies. To this, we estimate the Rybczynski equation matrix for the various manufacturing industries in Portugal, at regio…
A method to detect spillover effects and select valid donors for synthetic control models.
problem Identifying valid donors in synthetic control models when spillover effects are possible.
method Theoretical grounding and practical method using pre-intervention data to identify donor values and debias causal estimates.
result A Theorem that identifies assumptions for identifying donor values and debias causal estimates.
Paper uses AI to predict tail risks in US financial markets.
problem Predicting extreme risks in US financial markets.
method Multivariate multilevel CAViaR model optimized by gradient descent and genetic algorithm.
result Credit market's spillover effect on stock market is greater and longer-lasting.
Proposes a Structural Matrix Autoregressive model for joint analysis of asset returns, realized volatility, and trading volume.
problem Joint analysis of asset returns, realized volatility, and trading volume
method Structural Matrix Autoregressive model
result Volatility is primary driver of trading activity, with informational shocks incorporated through price variability.
The paper tackles adaptive targeting in networks with interference effects.
problem Adaptive targeting under network interference in a bandit setting.
method Linear model in a sparse regime, analyzing different levels of knowledge of the interference structure.
result Unified view of how knowledge of the interference structure affects online learning efficiency.
GenAI adoption paradoxically lowers ROE for U.S. banks, with spillovers but systemic risk concerns.
problem Productivity paradox and implementation costs in U.S. banking sector with AI adoption.
method Dynamic Spatial Durbin Models (DSDM) and Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) for causal inference.
result AI adoption leads to a 428-basis-point decline in ROE for banks, with spillovers but systemic risk implications.
New method for estimating firm linkages using CVLs and QCML.
problem Estimating firm linkages for profitable trading strategies.
method Characteristic Vector Linkages (CVLs) and Quantum Cognition Machine Learning (QCML).
result QCML similarity outperforms Euclidean similarity in constructing profitable trading strategies.
This paper studies the problem of optimally allocating treatments in the presence of spillover effects, using information from a (quasi-)experiment. I introduce a method that maximizes the sample analog of average social welfare when spillovers occur. I construct semi-parametric welfare estimators with known and unknow…
Study on systemic risk in European insurance sector, showing insurer connections during stress.
problem Understanding systemic risk connectedness in European insurance sector.
method Common connectedness framework applied to returns, volatility, value-at-risk, and expected shortfall.
result Insurers are a significant component of systemic risk connectedness, especially during stress episodes.
Endogenous reinsurance pricing in large insurance markets
problem Endogenous reinsurance pricing in large insurance markets
method Stackelberg leader and insurer equilibrium analysis
result Characterization of insurers' equilibrium retention and Stackelberg equilibria