A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Local approach learns causal structure of linear Gaussian polytree models from interventional data.
New method uses diffusion models for Bayesian inverse problems.
Framework for sensitivity analysis in biomanufacturing processes.
The NL score optimizes speaker recognition tasks.
Generalizes bits back coding for time-series models with latent Markov structures.
Proposes NUV priors for half-space and box constraints.
Method predicts future rewards from past actions in a linear Gaussian system.
A model learns causal representations from high-dimensional data.
We report an exact likelihood computation for Linear Gaussian Markov processes that is more scalable than existing algorithms for complex models and sparsely sampled signals. Better scaling is achieved through elimination of repeated computations in the Kalman likelihood, and by using the diagonalized form of the state…
New algorithm estimates causal effects for non-Gaussian data.
Study non-Gaussian measures' concentration properties in metric spaces.
Critically ill patients in regular wards are vulnerable to unanticipated clinical dete- rioration which requires timely transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU). To allow for risk scoring and patient monitoring in such a setting, we develop a novel Semi- Markov Switching Linear Gaussian Model (SSLGM) for the inpatient…
Gaussian belief propagation (BP) has been widely used for distributed inference in large-scale networks such as the smart grid, sensor networks, and social networks, where local measurements/observations are scattered over a wide geographical area. One particular case is when two neighboring agents share a common obser…
Gaussian processes are conditioned on various types of data.
New method corrects Laplace/BIC errors in singular models, revealing effective dimension.
This paper considers inference over distributed linear Gaussian models using factor graphs and Gaussian belief propagation (BP). The distributed inference algorithm involves only local computation of the information matrix and of the mean vector, and message passing between neighbors. Under broad conditions, it is show…
The paper compares and optimizes estimators for treatment effects with observed confounders and mediators.
The study sets limits on how well systems can be controlled adaptively.
Paper studies sparsity and DAG constraints for learning linear DAGs.
Count data take on non-negative integer values and are challenging to properly analyze using standard linear-Gaussian methods such as linear regression and principal components analysis. Generalized linear models enable direct modeling of counts in a regression context using distributions such as the Poisson and negati…
We consider a long-term optimal investment problem where an investor tries to minimize the probability of falling below a target growth rate. From a mathematical viewpoint, this is a large deviation control problem. This problem will be shown to relate to a risk-sensitive stochastic control problem for a sufficiently l…
Jump Markov linear models consists of a finite number of linear state space models and a discrete variable encoding the jumps (or switches) between the different linear models. Identifying jump Markov linear models makes for a challenging problem lacking an analytical solution. We derive a new expectation maximization …
Improved causal discovery methods for large graphs without strict assumptions.
We consider the problem of structure learning for bow-free acyclic path diagrams (BAPs). BAPs can be viewed as a generalization of linear Gaussian DAG models that allow for certain hidden variables. We present a first method for this problem using a greedy score-based search algorithm. We also prove some necessary and …
Using the linear Gaussian latent variable model as a starting point we relax some of the constraints it imposes by deriving a nonparametric latent feature Gaussian variable model. This model introduces additional discrete latent variables to the original structure. The Bayesian nonparametric nature of this new model al…
We propose an affine extension of the Linear Gaussian term structure Model (LGM) such that the instantaneous covariation of the factors is given by an affine process on semidefinite positive matrices. First, we set up the model and present some important properties concerning the Laplace transform of the factors and th…
Reduces IB problem to a simpler, lower-dimensional problem.
Beta process is the standard nonparametric Bayesian prior for latent factor model. In this paper, we derive a structured mean-field variational inference algorithm for a beta process non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) model with Poisson likelihood. Unlike the linear Gaussian model, which is well-studied in the non…
This tutorial provides a gentle introduction to the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm for parameter inference in nonlinear state-space models together with a software implementation in the statistical programming language R. We employ a step-by-step approach to develop an implementation of the PMH algorithm …
The paper uses Gaussian mixture models for Bayesian networks and proposes an optimization algorithm.
Bayesian nonparametric models get better posterior estimates via SPDE methods.
New method resolves inconsistency in learning directed acyclic graphs using penalized likelihood.
Bayesian networks are typically faithful, with implications for causal inference.
Bayesian methods improve drug discovery experiment design.
A new comprehensive approach to nonlinear time series analysis and modeling is developed in the present paper. We introduce novel data-specific mid-distribution based Legendre Polynomial (LP) like nonlinear transformations of the original time series Y(t) that enables us to adapt all the existing stationary linear Gaus…
Inference for latent feature models is inherently difficult as the inference space grows exponentially with the size of the input data and number of latent features. In this work, we use Kurihara & Welling (2008)'s maximization-expectation framework to perform approximate MAP inference for linear-Gaussian latent featur…
Variational Bayes (VB) is a recent approximate method for Bayesian inference. It has the merit of being a fast and scalable alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) but its approximation error is often unknown. In this paper, we derive the approximation error of VB in terms of mean, mode, variance, predictive den…
Modified asymmetric hidden Markov models for time series with autoregressive components.
Latent feature models are widely used to decompose data into a small number of components. Bayesian nonparametric variants of these models, which use the Indian buffet process (IBP) as a prior over latent features, allow the number of features to be determined from the data. We present a generalization of the IBP, the …
Online Passive-Aggressive (PA) learning is a class of online margin-based algorithms suitable for a wide range of real-time prediction tasks, including classification and regression. PA algorithms are formulated in terms of deterministic point-estimation problems governed by a set of user-defined hyperparameters: the a…
The paper is concerned with non-linear Gaussian filtering and smoothing in continuous-discrete state-space models, where the dynamic model is formulated as an Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE), and the measurements are obtained at discrete time instants. We propose novel Taylor moment expansion (TME) Gaussian …
New method forecasts time series with changing variances.
The Kalman filter is the most powerful tool for estimation of the states of a linear Gaussian system. In addition, using this method, an expectation maximization algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters of the model. However, this algorithm cannot function in real time. Thus, we propose a new method that can be…
Deep random feature models are analyzed for their performance with exact asymptotic expressions.
Since the advent of the horseshoe priors for regularization, global-local shrinkage methods have proved to be a fertile ground for the development of Bayesian methodology in machine learning, specifically for high-dimensional regression and classification problems. They have achieved remarkable success in computation, …
KalMamba improves RL efficiency with probabilistic SSMs.
In this work, we consider the identifiability assumption of Gaussian linear structural equation models (SEMs) in which each variable is determined by a linear function of its parents plus normally distributed error. It has been shown that linear Gaussian structural equation models are fully identifiable if all error va…
We solve structure learning for cyclic linear causal models using observational data.