Measurement noise limits the advantage of nonlinear models over linear models in biomedical prediction
problem Nonlinear models vs. linear models in biomedical prediction
method Measurement reliability
result Measurement noise blurs the population-optimal predictor
Bounds on factual and counterfactual distributions under measurement error in discrete models.
problem Measurement errors in discrete data and their impact on inference.
method Expressing modeling assumptions as linear constraints and using linear programming to derive bounds.
result Sharp bounds on factual and counterfactual distributions for various models, including instrumental variable scenarios.
Paper proposes LANN to measure model complexity of neural networks with curve activation functions.
problem Measuring model complexity of neural networks with curve activation functions.
method Proposes LANN, a piecewise linear framework to approximate curve activation functions, and derives complexity measure based on the number of linear regions.
result Demonstrates positive correlation between overfitting and model complexity during training.
We analyzed optimism in linear and kernel regression models.
problem Understanding predictive complexity in regression models.
method Derived closed-form asymptotic optimism for linear and kernel regression models.
result Scaled optimism is a useful measure for model complexity.
A new complexity measure for neural networks improves upon classical methods.
problem Lack of a refined complexity measure for comparing different neural network architectures, especially permutation-invariant ones.
method Introduced an equivalence relation among linear functions and counted them relative to this relation.
result The new complexity measure clearly distinguishes between different models and increases exponentially with depth.
Study on recovering supports of multiple sparse vectors from mixed linear measurements.
problem Recovering supports of multiple sparse vectors from a mixture of linear measurements.
method Developed algorithms to identify the support of all component vectors using polynomial and quasi-polynomial number of measurements.
result Polynomial and quasi-polynomial number of measurements sufficient for recovering the supports of all component vectors.
A new method combines machine learning with mixed-effects models for better repeated measurement analysis.
problem Inference of linear coefficients in partially linear mixed-effects models with complex interactions and high-dimensional variables.
method Double machine learning approach to estimate nonparametrically nonlinear variables, then use standard linear mixed-effects techniques to estimate the linear coefficient.
result The estimated fixed effects coefficient converges at the parametric rate and is semiparametrically efficient.
New method detects causal relationships from noisy measurements.
problem Discover causal relationships from noisy, imperfect measurements.
method Transformed Independent Noise (TIN) condition and ordered group decomposition.
result Identifies causal graph structure without over-complete ICA.
Develops a new model for synthesizing and analyzing probability measures.
problem Synthesis and analysis of probability measures.
method Linear barycentric coding model (LBCM) using linear optimal transport (LOT) metric.
result Closed-form solution to 2-Wasserstein barycenters for compatible measures.
Study tackles causal structure learning in linear models with unobserved variables and measurement error.
problem Challenges of unobserved common causes and measurement error in causal structure learning.
method Introduces LV-SEM-ME model with four types of variables and characterizes identifiability under separability condition.
result Establishes form of identification robustness for target effect in broader LV-SEM-ME model.
New algorithm learns linear dynamical systems from measurements.
problem Learning system dynamics from linear measurements efficiently and accurately.
method Method of moments estimator to directly estimate Markov parameters.
result First polynomial time algorithm for learning linear dynamical systems.
The paper studies robust risk measures with linear penalties under uncertain distributions.
problem Risk measurement under distributional uncertainty.
method Robust distortion risk measures with linear penalty function under distributional constraints.
result Explicit characterization of optimal quantile distribution and value function.
Proposes a new risk measurement method for risk-averse stochastic optimization.
problem Risk-averse stochastic optimization problems.
method Develops a risk measure based on argmin and minimum concepts.
result Guarantees the existence of solutions for the proposed problem.
Signal retrieval from a series of indirect measurements is a common task in many imaging, metrology and characterization platforms in science and engineering. Because most of the indirect measurement processes are well-described by physical models, signal retrieval can be solved with an iterative optimization that enfo…
A new algorithm improves posterior sampling for linear inverse problems.
problem Efficiently sampling from posterior distributions in noisy linear inverse problems.
method Proposes \pddim, a DDIM-type sampler that separately samples along singular directions of the measurement operator.
result The method converges to the Bayesian posterior conditioned on the measurements.
Paper addresses group synchronization with incomplete measurements and proves linear convergence of GPM.
problem Orthogonal group synchronization with incomplete measurements and additive noise.
method Generalized power method (GPM) with local error bound analysis.
result Linear convergence of GPM to a global maximizer under general additive noise model.
We generalize Quasi-Linear Means by restricting to the tail of the risk distribution and show that this can be a useful quantity in risk management since it comprises in its general form the Value at Risk, the Tail Value at Risk and the Entropic Risk Measure in a unified way. We then investigate the fundamental propert…
New algorithm recovers sparse binary vectors from generalized linear measurements efficiently.
problem Recovering sparse binary vectors from generalized linear measurements.
method Linear estimation algorithm and information theoretic lower bounds.
result Optimal sample complexity of O((k+σ2)logn) for noisy one bit quantized linear measurements. Optimal sampling strategy improves prediction accuracy with surrogate variables under measurement constraints.
problem Measurement-constrained datasets and lack of labeled data.
method A-optimality criterion for optimal sampling, leveraging surrogate variables.
result Achieves lower asymptotic variance and reduced empirical mean squared error.
We derive measure change formulae required to price midcurve swaptions in the forward swap annuity measure with stochastic annuities' ratios. We construct the corresponding linear and exponential terminal swap rate pricing models and show how they capture the midcurve swaption correlation skew.
We find that the CAPM fails to explain the small firm effect even if its non-parametric form is used which allows time-varying risk and non-linearity in the pricing function. Furthermore, the linearity of the CAPM can be rejected, thus the widely used risk and performance measures, the beta and the alpha, are biased an…
Study on measure-valued CARMA processes in Banach spaces.
problem Modeling dynamics of functionals of spatio-temporal random fields.
method Defined measure-valued CARMA processes and derived conditions for stationarity.
result Positive measure-valued CARMA processes can model spatio-temporal random fields.
The paper strengthens a theorem on crossings under linear perturbations with Hausdorff measure estimates.
problem Understanding multiple-point crossings under linear perturbations.
method Establishes a transversality theorem with Hausdorff measure estimates for exceptional parameter sets.
result Explicit upper bounds on the Hausdorff dimension of the exceptional set.
RNN-HAR model improves VaR forecasting with long-memory and non-linear dynamics.
problem Efficiently forecasting Value at Risk (VaR) with long-memory and non-linear realized volatility.
method Loss-based generalized Bayesian inference with Sequential Monte Carlo for model estimation and prediction.
result RNN-HAR model consistently outperforms other VaR forecasting models.
SKOLR uses linear RNNs to approximate Koopman operators for time-series forecasting.
problem Nonlinear dynamical system analysis and time-series forecasting with infinite-dimensional Koopman operators.
method Established a connection between Koopman operator approximation and linear RNNs, integrating learnable spectral decomposition and MLP.
result SKOLR delivers exceptional performance in various forecasting benchmarks and dynamical systems.
Develops high-dimensional measurement error models for non-linear loss functions.
problem Measurement errors in ultrahigh-dimensional biomedical data.
method Lipschitz loss functions, L1 norm minimization, Lasso analog.
result Improved accuracy in classification and quantile regression problems.
The paper develops a robust signal estimation method for noisy measurements from generative models.
problem Signal estimation from noisy non-linear measurements with adversarial corruptions.
method Generalized Lasso approach with sub-Gaussian measurements and adversarial noise consideration.
result The method requires $O\left(\frac{k}{ε^2}\log L
ight)$ samples for ε-error recovery, robust to adversarial noise. Robust Kalman filter for corrupted measurements.
problem Estimating linear dynamical systems from noisy measurements, especially when a fraction of measurements are adversarially corrupted.
method Developed a robust Kalman filter framework that can handle large and unknown perturbations in measurement noise.
result First strong provable guarantees for linear quadratic estimation with adversarial corruptions.
Log-linear models are a family of probability distributions which capture relationships between variables. They have been proven useful in a wide variety of fields such as epidemiology, economics and sociology. The interest in using these models is that they are able to capture context-specific independencies, relation…
RePS improves diffusion models for solving inverse problems efficiently.
problem Solving inverse problems with incomplete or noisy measurements.
method Restart for Posterior Sampling (RePS) using pre-trained diffusion models.
result RePS achieves faster convergence and superior reconstruction quality.
New measures link neural representation geometry to decoding ability.
problem Understanding how neural representations relate to decoding ability.
method Showed that popular similarity measures can be interpreted from a decoding perspective.
result Proved that measures like CKA and CCA quantify alignment between optimal linear readouts.
Non linear sigma models are quantum field theories describing, in the large deviations sense, random fluctuations of harmonic maps between a Riemann surface and a Riemannian manifold. Via their formal renormalization group analysis, they provide a framework for possible generalizations of the Hamilton-Perelman Ricci fl…
Refined theorem on linear perturbations with applications in singularity theory and optimization.
problem Linear perturbations and their implications in singularity theory and optimization.
method New perspective of Hausdorff measures for refined transversality theorem.
result Applications in singularity theory and optimization.
Agents learn state ambiguity from non-linear sensor data using Gaussian approximations.
problem Learning state representation from non-linear sensor data.
method Second-order Taylor approximation of Gaussian distribution for non-linear measurement functions.
result Induces a preference for states based on inferability from observations.
Reliable measures of statistical dependence could be useful tools for learning independent features and performing tasks like source separation using Independent Component Analysis (ICA). Unfortunately, many of such measures, like the mutual information, are hard to estimate and optimize directly. We propose to learn i…
Bayesian hierarchical models are increasing popular in economics. When using hierarchical models, it is useful not only to calculate posterior expectations, but also to measure the robustness of these expectations to reasonable alternative prior choices. We use variational Bayes and linear response methods to provide f…
Modeling dynamical systems is important in many disciplines, e.g., control, robotics, or neurotechnology. Commonly the state of these systems is not directly observed, but only available through noisy and potentially high-dimensional observations. In these cases, system identification, i.e., finding the measurement map…
In previous work, theoretical analysis based on the tensor Restricted Isometry Property (t-RIP) established the robust recovery guarantees of a low-tubal-rank tensor. The obtained sufficient conditions depend strongly on the assumption that the linear measurement maps satisfy the t-RIP. In this paper, by exploiting the…
Suppose that we observe noisy linear measurements of an unknown signal that can be modeled as the sum of two component signals, each of which arises from a nonlinear sub-manifold of a high dimensional ambient space. We introduce SPIN, a first order projected gradient method to recover the signal components. Despite the…
We study coherent risk measures which are time-consistent for multiple filtrations. We show that a coherent risk measure is time-consistent for every filtration if and only if it is one of four main types. Furthermore, if the risk measure is strictly monotone it is linear, and if the reference probability space is not …
We tackle causal discovery in linear systems with measurement error and unobserved causes.
problem Causal discovery in linear systems with measurement error and unobserved causes.
method Characterization of identifiability based on the mixing matrix, proposing causal structure learning methods.
result The structure of causal models can be identified under certain faithfulness assumptions.
In this paper, we study the confounder detection problem in the linear model, where the target variable Y is predicted using its n potential causes Xn=(x1,...,xn)T. Based on an assumption of rotation invariant generating process of the model, recent study shows that the spectral measure induced by the regress…
Paper presents characteristic function of Tsallis q-Gaussian and its applications.
problem Modeling input quantities in measurement models using Tsallis q-Gaussians.
method Developed a characteristic function and proposed a numerical method for its inversion.
result Exact probability distribution of output quantities can be determined.
This paper presents a simple model to measure the relative economic growth of economic systems. The model considers S-Shaped patterns of economic growth that, represented with a linear model, measure how an economic system grows in comparison with another one. In particular, this model introduces an approach which indi…
Generative models use latent abstractions to create images.
problem Understanding how generative models create high-dimensional data like images.
method Developed a theoretical framework using SDE and information theory.
result Diffusion models can be seen as a non-linear filter driven by latent abstractions.
Complex problems may require sophisticated, non-linear learning methods such as kernel machines or deep neural networks to achieve state of the art prediction accuracies. However, high prediction accuracies are not the only objective to consider when solving problems using machine learning. Instead, particular scientif…
Investigates risk measures for DC pension decumulation.
problem Develop optimal decumulation strategies for DC plan holders.
method Formulates decumulation as a control problem, studies risk measures (expected shortfall, linear shortfall, probability of shortfall).
result Optimal controls for expected reward and expected shortfall are identical to those for expected reward and linear shortfall.
Enhanced GARCH model uses autoencoder for volatility forecasting.
problem Selecting optimal realised volatility estimator for forecasting.
method Proposes an autoencoder-enhanced Realised GARCH model combining multiple realised measures.
result The model outperforms traditional linear methods in one-step-ahead rolling volatility forecasting.