The financial services industry has unique explainability and fairness challenges arising from compliance and ethical considerations in credit decisioning. These challenges complicate the use of model machine learning and artificial intelligence methods in business decision processes.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “Lending decision”
The paper compares ML models for credit scoring and investment decisions using explainable AI.
problem The opacity of machine learning models in financial services.
method Comparison of various machine learning models (single classifiers, ensembles, neural networks) and explainability techniques (LIME, SHAP).
result Ensemble classifiers and neural networks outperform in credit scoring models.
Machine learning outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns.
problem Determining if machine learning can outperform human decision-making in crowd lending.
method Using data from Prosper.com, a sophisticated ML algorithm was trained to predict loan defaults and investment returns.
result The ML algorithm outperforms crowd investors in predicting loan defaults and investment returns, especially for risky loans.
New technique reduces gender discrimination in credit lending models.
problem Bias and unfairness in credit lending predictions.
method Subgroup Threshold Optimizer (STO) technique.
result Reduces gender discrimination by over 90%.
Large corporate credit models may be adapted for small business risk assessment.
problem Limited data and lack of credit analysts for small businesses.
method Adapting large corporate credit risk models for small businesses.
result Adapted models can predict small business credit risk effectively.
A new framework integrates credit scoring into profit scoring for better P2P lending investments.
problem Maximizing profit while minimizing risk in P2P lending investments.
method Two-stage framework using Light Gradient Boosting Machine (lightGBM) to integrate credit scoring into profit scoring.
result The proposed framework identifies more profitable loans and provides better investment guidance.
Housing Market Microstructureq-fin.TR
In this article, we develop a model for the evolution of real estate prices. A wide range of inputs, including stochastic interest rates and changing demands for the asset, are considered. Maximizing their expected utility, home owners make optimal sale decisions given these changing market conditions. Using these opti…
Paper uses BERT to assess P2P borrowers' credit risk from loan descriptions.
problem Information asymmetry in P2P lending due to lack of borrower data.
method Fine-tunes BERT on Lending Club dataset to generate risk scores from loan descriptions.
result BERT-generated risk scores improve XGBoost classifier's performance in loan granting.
Online Peer to Peer Lending (P2PL) systems connect lenders and borrowers directly, thereby making it convenient to borrow and lend money without intermediaries such as banks. Many recommendation systems have been developed for lenders to achieve higher interest rates and avoid defaulting loans. However, there has not b…
This research simplifies lending pools in decentralized finance for better understanding and security.
problem Complexity and lack of executable models make lending pools hard to understand and predict.
method Developed a formal model to reflect common features of lending pools and proved general properties.
result Proved correct handling of funds and described vulnerabilities and attacks.
The paper examines how decentralized credit curators have taken over risk management from traditional protocols.
problem Risk management in decentralized credit has shifted from centralized protocols to decentralized curators.
method Analysis of ERC 4626 vaults and third-party curators, focusing on capital utilization, concentration, and fee margins.
result Curators have a significant impact on the risk profile of decentralized credit systems, with a small set of curators handling a disproportionate share of system TVL.
This paper builds a machine learning model to predict credit defaults for unsecured lending.
problem High credit defaults and delinquency rates in unsecured lending due to imbalanced data.
method Employing machine learning techniques, particularly SMOTE for imbalanced data, and evaluating models like LGBM Classifier.
result LGBM Classifier model outperforms other models in predicting credit defaults.
Study finds gender bias in human evaluators and shows how machine learning can mitigate it.
problem Gender bias in human decision-making on micro-lending platforms.
method Structural econometric model and machine learning algorithms trained on real-world data.
result Machine learning algorithms can mitigate both preference-based and belief-based biases.
This study measures liquidity risks in Aave, a blockchain lending protocol.
problem Liquidity risks in lending protocols, especially in Aave.
method Measurements of liquidity risks using Aave as a case study, focusing on available liquidity and market concentration.
result Liquidity risks in Aave are volatile and affect the protocol negatively, especially for repeat borrowers.
Contextual bandit framework improves revenue optimization in securities lending market.
problem Optimizing revenue for agent lenders in a dynamic securities lending market.
method Utilized contextual bandit frameworks to address dynamic pricing problems in an e-commerce-like securities lending market.
result Contextual bandit approach consistently outperforms traditional methods by at least 15% in total revenue generated.
Relationship lending is broadly interpreted as a strong partnership between a lender and a borrower. Nevertheless, we still lack consensus regarding how to quantify the strength of a lending relationship, while simple statistics such as the frequency and volume of loans have been used as proxies in previous studies. He…
Study uses AI to refine loan assessments, improving credit default predictions.
problem Improving credit default prediction accuracy using AI-refined text.
method Comparative analysis of human-written and AI-refined loan assessments using deep learning techniques.
result AI-refined texts significantly enhance credit default predictions, especially when combined with structured data.
Dynamic pricing improves DeFi lending efficiency by reducing regret to logarithmic levels.
problem Static pricing mechanisms in DeFi lending protocols lead to suboptimal welfare and revenue.
method Online learning model for static and dynamic pricing models in DeFi lending.
result Adaptive supply models achieve logarithmic regret, outperforming static models.
Proposes a new method to explain model predictions for consumer recourse.
problem Current explanation methods fail to provide meaningful recourse to decision subjects.
method Develops feature responsiveness scores to highlight actionable features.
result Standard practices can undermine decision subjects by highlighting unresponsive features.
Framework for responsible LLM deployment with human involvement and decentralized technologies.
problem Challenges in deploying LLMs for high-stakes decisions, including data security and accountability.
method Interactive human involvement through multiple iterations, decentralized technologies, and automated auditing.
result Enhanced security and accountability in LLM deployment for financial decisions.
The study examines cross-border lending behavior from G7 countries, showing changes in driving factors after the 2008 financial crisis.
problem Understanding the factors affecting cross-border lending behavior among G7 countries.
method Employed a gravity model to analyze bilateral and global factors influencing cross-border lending.
result Driving factors for cross-border lending have changed since the 2008 financial crisis, with continent variable becoming more significant.
The paper reconciles two conflicting fairness criteria in algorithmic risk scores.
problem How to reconcile calibration and equal error rates in algorithmic risk scores.
method Derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of calibrated scores achieving equal error rates, then present an algorithm to find the most accurate score subject to both criteria.
result The method can eliminate error disparities while maintaining calibration and improve profit in credit lending.
Study analyzes risk management in Aave and Compound lending protocols, finding v3 better than v2.
problem Risk management in decentralized lending protocols.
method Cross-version and cross-chain analysis using fixed effects model.
result v3 protocols have better risk management, with stronger impact on L2 blockchains.
The study calculates securities lending haircuts and indemnification costs.
problem Managing borrower default risk in securities markets.
method Repo haircut model applied to securities lending transactions; quantifies haircuts and indemnification costs.
result Computed borrower-dependent haircuts and indemnification costs for US Treasuries and equities.
Counterfactual Fairnessstat.ML
Machine learning can impact people with legal or ethical consequences when it is used to automate decisions in areas such as insurance, lending, hiring, and predictive policing. In many of these scenarios, previous decisions have been made that are unfairly biased against certain subpopulations, for example those of a …
Study proposes optimal risk-aware interest rates for crypto lending protocols.
problem Determining optimal interest rates for decentralized lending protocols to maximize profit and minimize risk.
method Agent-based model, Riccati-type ODEs for linear behaviors, Monte-Carlo estimator and deep learning for nonlinear behaviors.
result Calibrated model shows superior risk-adjusted performance compared to industry-standard interest rate models.
Improved AMM protocol supports diverse loan maturities in DeFi.
problem Challenges in designing AMMs for fixed-income lending with time-related complexities.
method Generalized BondMM protocol to support arbitrary maturities.
result BondMM-A protocol demonstrates superior performance in interest rate stability and financial robustness.
Paper assesses risks of stablecoins, from lending to business-to-business.
problem Credit risks in decentralized stablecoin issuance.
method Examines mechanisms, risks, and mitigation strategies at each layer.
result Potential for scaling stablecoins while maintaining systemic health.
The increasing impact of algorithmic decisions on people's lives compels us to scrutinize their fairness and, in particular, the disparate impacts that ostensibly-color-blind algorithms can have on different groups. Examples include credit decisioning, hiring, advertising, criminal justice, personalized medicine, and t…
Machine learning is becoming an ever present part in our lives as many decisions, e.g. to lend a credit, are no longer made by humans but by machine learning algorithms. However those decisions are often unfair and discriminating individuals belonging to protected groups based on race or gender. With the recent General…
The paper analyzes Lending Club's loan applicants to predict default risk.
problem Predicting default risk in loan applicants of Lending Club.
method Exploratory data analysis and machine learning (Logistic Regression, Random Forest) were used.
result A credit derivative based on Credit Default Swap was designed to hedge default risk.
Machine learning algorithms are now frequently used in sensitive contexts that substantially affect the course of human lives, such as credit lending or criminal justice. This is driven by the idea that `objective' machines base their decisions solely on facts and remain unaffected by human cognitive biases, discrimina…
Model proposes how regulators should oversee complex algorithms in high-stakes applications.
problem Regulating complex algorithms used in high-stakes applications like lending, testing, and hiring.
method Proposes a model where regulators are limited in learning about complex algorithms with misaligned preferences, and explores different regulatory approaches.
result Complex algorithms can improve welfare, but regulation should focus on the source of incentive misalignment for optimal results.
Credit Crunch: The Role of Household Lending Capacity in the Dutch Housing Boom and Bust 1995-2018stat.AP
New measure predicts Dutch housing market downturns.
problem Understanding causes of Dutch housing boom and bust.
method Modelled household lending capacity using bank formulas.
result New measure outperforms traditional measures in forecasting housing prices.
Debt-financed collateral in DeFi increases stability risks.
problem Financial stability risks in DeFi ecosystems due to debt-financed collateral.
method Categorization and classification algorithm to measure debt-financed collateral.
result Wide-spread use of stablecoins as debt-financed collateral increases financial stability risks.
The study improves credit evaluation in peer-to-peer lending using machine learning.
problem Traditional credit histories are insufficient for distinguishing good from bad borrowers.
method Used machine learning classification and clustering algorithms to predict creditworthiness.
result Achieved 65% F1 and 73% AUC on LendingClub data, identifying key secondary attributes.
Private credit markets have expanded significantly, offering unique lending technology to private equity firms.
problem Understanding the growth and characteristics of private credit markets.
method Systematic survey of academic literature, development of integrated theoretical framework, empirical evidence.
result Private credit markets offer a distinct lending technology with higher spreads over syndicated loans.
The study analyzes how cross-chain interoperability affects decentralized lending protocols' performance.
problem Understudied cross-chain elements in DeFi lending risk management.
method Panel regression fixed effects and OLS models applied to empirical analysis.
result Cross-chain activity impacts protocol performance, with bridge volume being a critical driver.
Algorithm reduces long-term policy regret in ML decision-making.
problem Capturing long-term impacts of ML decisions in communities.
method Modeling communities as arms in a multi-armed bandit problem, defining policy regret as a stronger metric than external regret.
result Algorithm achieves provably sub-linear policy regret for long time horizons.
This study examines liquidation risks in DeFi lending markets.
problem Liquidity risks in decentralized finance lending protocols.
method Quantitative analysis of liquidation data from four major DeFi platforms.
result Current liquidation mechanisms incentivize liquidators but lead to excessive collateral sales.
Study examines factors influencing lending to SMEs by Kenyan banks.
problem Lack of creditworthiness makes SMEs difficult to finance by banks.
method Descriptive research design, census of 43 banks, secondary data analysis.
result Bank size and liquidity significantly influence lending to SMEs, while credit risk and interest rates do not.
Study predicts P2P lending platform failures using machine learning.
problem Predicting failures of P2P lending platforms in China.
method Used machine learning models with filter and wrapper methods, forward selection, and backward elimination.
result Identified robust variables for predicting platform failures with high AUC and F1 scores.
We propose an in-depth study of lending behaviors in Kiva using a mix of quantitative and large-scale data mining techniques. Kiva is a non-profit organization that offers an online platform to connect lenders with borrowers. Their site, kiva.org, allows citizens to microlend small amounts of money to entrepreneurs (bo…
The paper explains credit decisions using Shapley decomposition for adverse actions.
problem Identifying predictors responsible for adverse credit decisions.
method Develops a simple and intuitive approach based on Shapley decomposition for models with low-order interactions.
result Shows the approach generalizes to Shapley decomposition and Baseline Shapley.
Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.
problem Optimizing predictions for specific decision tasks of interest.
method Designs a class of parametrized actions for Bayesian decision analysis.
result Derives efficient and interpretable solutions for various action parametrizations and loss functions.
Optimal investment with insurable background risk and nonlinear portfolio allocation frictionsq-fin.MF
Investment and insurance decisions are studied in a model with nonlinear portfolio frictions and background risk.
problem Investment and insurance decisions under a model with nonlinear portfolio frictions and background risk.
method Dynamic programming approach to find optimality conditions.
result Agent can choose to assume, partially assume, or purchase total insurance against adverse jumps in wealth.
Less Discriminatory Alternative and Interpretable XGBoost Framework for Binary Classificationstat.ML
LDA-XGB1 balances fairness and accuracy in lending models.
problem Fair lending practices and model interpretability in binary classification.
method Biobjective optimization using binning and information value, leveraging XGBoost.
result Achieves effective balance between accuracy, fairness, and interpretability.
Study loan contracts in DLPs using derivatives pricing and neural networks.
problem Optimizing and hedging risks in decentralized lending contracts.
method Derivatives pricing theory, deep neural networks, and statistical arbitrage.
result Developed a method to hedge risks in lending contracts and exploit arbitrage opportunities.