Paper accelerates conformal prediction by using approximate leave-one-out estimators.
problem Limited computational cost for conformal prediction.
method Incorporates approximate leave-one-out estimators to accelerate conformal prediction.
result ALO-based methods achieve comparable coverage and efficiency to exact methods but with significantly reduced runtime.
LOO-StabCP speeds up CP for multiple predictions.
problem Balancing computational efficiency and prediction accuracy in CP.
method Leave-One-Out Stable Conformal Prediction (LOO-StabCP) using algorithmic stability.
result LOO-StabCP is faster and more accurate than RO-StabCP.
Enhances polynomial chaos models with uncertainty intervals.
problem Uncertainty quantification in surrogate models.
method Jackknife-based conformal prediction integrated into polynomial chaos expansions.
result Produces accurate predictive intervals for low-accuracy models.
UDM reparameterization improves language model generation.
problem Mismatch between UDM training objective and denoising posterior.
method Leave-one-out denoising and absorbing state reformulation.
result Improved UDM generation through leave-one-out parameterization.
Optimizes Lasso hyperparameters using leave-one-out CV.
problem Finding optimal hyperparameters for Lasso regression.
method Develops an algorithm to compute exact or approximate leave-one-out CV.
result Algorithm finds optimal hyperparameters for Lasso.
We show how to adjust the coefficient of determination (R2) when used for measuring predictive accuracy via leave-one-out cross-validation.
Proposes DeGLIF to denoise graph data for label noise robustness.
problem Label noise in graph data makes node classification challenging.
method Uses leave-one-out influence function to denoise graph data.
result DeGLIF improves accuracy in node classification on noisy datasets.
New methods improve anomaly detection with reduced false positives.
problem Effective anomaly detection with controlled error rates.
method Leave-one-out-, bootstrap-, and cross-conformal anomaly detection methods.
result Improved anomaly detection with reduced false positives.
LOO prediction method improves generalization guarantees for arbitrary datasets.
problem Understanding LOO error guarantees in fully transductive settings for arbitrary datasets.
method Median of Level-Set Aggregation (MLSA) for empirical-risk level sets.
result Multiplicative oracle inequality for LOO error with complexity scaling.
Improved LOO cross-validation for function approximation.
problem Estimating the Integrated Squared Error (ISE) for function approximation.
method Weighted Leave-One-Out cross-validation based on Gaussian Process.
result Significantly more precise ISE estimation compared to unweighted LOO.
Adaptive coverage policies improve conformal prediction accuracy.
problem Fixed coverage levels in traditional conformal prediction lead to uninformative predictions.
method Optimizes adaptive coverage policy using a neural network trained on leave-one-out calibration.
result Adaptive coverage policies produce more informative and flexible prediction sets.
Optimizes hyperparameter tuning for models using approximate leave-one-out cross-validation.
problem Finding optimal hyperparameters for regularized models using approximate leave-one-out cross-validation.
method Derive efficient formulas for gradient and hessian of approximate leave-one-out cross-validation, apply second-order optimization.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach on real-world data sets.
ALO-CV approximates leave-one-out error in proportional regime.
problem Estimating generalization error in high-dimensional settings.
method Developed new analysis for ALO-CV, showed consistency under strong convexity.
result ALO-CV approximates leave-one-out error up to negligible error.
The study evaluates different parameter selection methods for Gaussian process interpolation.
problem Choosing optimal parameters for Gaussian process interpolation.
method Empirical study using scoring rules and leave-one-out selection criteria.
result The choice of model family is often more important than the selection criterion.
Algorithm identifies and corrects noisy labels using Gaussian process regression.
problem Detecting and correcting real-valued noisy labels from mixed data.
method Gaussian process regression with heteroscedastic noise model and leave-one-out cross-validation.
result The method can pinpoint corrupted sample points and improve regression models.
Backward Conformal Prediction offers flexible control over prediction set sizes while ensuring coverage guarantees.
problem Providing reliable prediction sets with controlled sizes in applications like medical diagnosis.
method Defines a rule that constrains prediction set sizes based on observed data, adapting coverage levels.
result Maintains computable coverage guarantees while ensuring interpretable, well-controlled prediction set sizes.
A new method improves robustness and efficiency of Bayesian LOO-CV.
problem Computational expense and unreliability of classical LOO-CV in high-dimensional Bayesian models.
method Proposes a mixture estimator to compute Bayesian LOO-CV criteria with finite asymptotic variance.
result Improved robustness and efficiency in high-dimensional problems.
Efficient PI for neural networks without distributional assumptions.
problem No distributional assumptions for efficient predictive inference.
method Differential privacy and linear approximation for leave-one-out models.
result Rigorous coverage guarantees with reduced computation.
Paper analyzes robust matrix completion with efficient nonconvex method and leave-one-out analysis.
problem Robust matrix completion with sparse noise.
method Alternates between projected gradient step for low-rank and thresholding step for sparse noise.
result Achieves linear convergence for general thresholding functions.
Paper introduces a method to explain deep learning models and identify good generalization.
problem Limited interpretability of neural networks hinders progress and real-world applications.
method Polytope interpolation method for local explainability and generalization assessment.
result Developed a method to identify deep learning models with good generalization properties.
The paper improves ALO for ℓ1-regularized models.
problem Estimating out-of-sample error for ℓ1-regularized models. method Developed a novel theory for ℓ1-regularized problems, bounding ALO error. result For ℓ1-regularized problems, ALO error goes to zero as p goes to infinity. The present paper provides a new generic strategy leading to non-asymptotic theoretical guarantees on the Leave-one-Out procedure applied to a broad class of learning algorithms. This strategy relies on two main ingredients: the new notion of Lq stability, and the strong use of moment inequalities. Lq stability e…
Researchers develop a new method to assess variable importance in spatial machine learning models for air pollution exposure prediction.
problem Understanding the mechanism captured by machine learning models in air pollution studies, especially with spatial correlation.
method Leave-one-out approach for variable importance measure applicable to models with separable mean and covariance components.
result The new method highlights differences in model mechanisms even for similar prediction accuracies.
The paper proves LOO CV is reliable under estimator stability.
problem Ensuring the reliability of leave-one-out cross validation.
method Using concentration inequalities based on logarithmic Sobolev inequality.
result LOO CV is a valid procedure under estimator stability.
Bayesian model averaging, model selection and its approximations such as BIC are generally statistically consistent, but sometimes achieve slower rates og convergence than other methods such as AIC and leave-one-out cross-validation. On the other hand, these other methods can br inconsistent. We identify the "catch-up …
The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the Laplace method or expectation propagation (EP). We study the properties of several B…
A fast method for LOOCV in k-NN regression reduces computation time.
problem Efficient computation of LOOCV for k-NN regression.
method Identical LOOCV estimate to (k+1)-NN MSE on training data.
result LOOCV computation can be done with (k+1)-NN regression once.
FastMuyGPs speeds up GP predictions for large datasets.
problem High cost of Gaussian process predictions for large data.
method Combines cross-validation, batching, nearest neighbors sparsification, and precomputation.
result Superior accuracy and competitive runtime compared to other methods.
Model inference, such as model comparison, model checking, and model selection, is an important part of model development. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) is a general approach for assessing the generalizability of a model, but unfortunately, LOO does not scale well to large datasets. We propose a combination of u…
Study improves understanding of non-differentiable penalties in high-dimensional settings.
problem Theoretical understanding of non-differentiable penalties like generalized LASSO and nuclear norm in high-dimensional settings.
method Proportional high-dimensional regime analysis with finite sample upper bounds on expected squared error.
result LO provides accurate estimation of out-of-sample risk in high-dimensional settings.
We study the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation in the high dimensional regime where both the sample size n and number of features p are large, and n/p can be less than one. Extensive empirical evidence confirms the accuracy of leave-one-out cross validation (LO) for out-of-sample risk estimation. Yet, a un…
VarGrad reduces variance in ELBO gradient estimation for variational inference.
problem Improving the variance of gradient estimators in variational inference.
method VarGrad uses a new log-variance loss to estimate the ELBO gradient, achieving lower variance than the score function method.
result VarGrad offers a lower variance gradient estimator compared to other methods.
CAOS aggregates multiple one-shot predictors for efficient uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification in one-shot prediction.
method CAOS, a conformal framework that aggregates multiple one-shot predictors and uses a leave-one-out calibration scheme.
result CAOS produces smaller prediction sets with reliable coverage compared to split conformal baselines.
The least squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) is widely used for pricing Bermudan options. The LSM estimator contains undesirable look-ahead bias, and the conventional technique of avoiding it requires additional simulation paths. We present the leave-one-out LSM (LOOLSM) algor…
In this paper we consider the problem of Gaussian process classifier (GPC) model selection with different Leave-One-Out (LOO) Cross Validation (CV) based optimization criteria and provide a practical algorithm using LOO predictive distributions with such criteria to select hyperparameters. Apart from the standard avera…
Paper discusses prediction errors for penalized regressions using GAMP and LOOCV.
problem Prediction accuracy of penalized regression models.
method Derives prediction error estimators using GAMP and LOOCV.
result Information criteria and LOOCV error estimators differ in large parameter regions.
Study shows influence functions are poor for neural networks but useful for identifying influential examples.
problem Influence functions misalign with leave-one-out retraining in neural networks.
method Decomposed the discrepancy into five terms and studied their contributions across different architectures and datasets.
result Influence functions are a good approximation to the proximal Bregman response function (PBRF), useful for identifying influential examples.
Paper proposes faster adaptation to distribution shifts in online settings.
problem Violation of exchangeability assumption in evolving data environments.
method Online conformal inference with retrospective adjustment.
result Faster adaptation to distributional shifts demonstrated through numerical studies.
Analysis of cross-validation for early-stopped gradient descent in high-dimensional regression.
problem Inconsistency of GCV for early-stopped GD in high-dimensional least squares regression.
method Theoretical analysis of GCV and LOOCV applied to early-stopped GD in high-dimensional least squares regression.
result LOOCV converges uniformly to the prediction risk of early-stopped GD, while GCV is generically inconsistent.
Two methods improve Gaussian process predictive distributions' calibration.
problem Improving the reliability of Gaussian process predictive intervals.
method Introduces two methods: cps-gp and bcr-gp, both adapting conformal predictive systems to GP interpolation.
result Both methods provide finite-sample marginal calibration and smooth predictive distributions.
Weighted SVM (or fuzzy SVM) is the most widely used SVM variant owning its effectiveness to the use of instance weights. Proper selection of the instance weights can lead to increased generalization performance. In this work, we extend the span error bound theory to weighted SVM and we introduce effective hyperparamete…
Decoding, ie prediction from brain images or signals, calls for empirical evaluation of its predictive power. Such evaluation is achieved via cross-validation, a method also used to tune decoders' hyper-parameters. This paper is a review on cross-validation procedures for decoding in neuroimaging. It includes a didacti…
Framework designs antiviral drugs using deep learning and RL.
problem Designing effective antiviral drugs for SARS-CoV-2.
method Deep learning framework with conditional molecular generator and RL.
result Framework generates more antiviral ligands than a VAE baseline.
Discriminative jackknife estimates deep learning uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Discriminative jackknife using influence functions of loss.
result DJ satisfies frequentist coverage and discriminative accuracy.
A new KDE model prevents singular solutions and accelerates optimization for probabilistic modeling.
problem Adapting to varying densities in data regions for probabilistic modeling.
method Adaptive KDE model with individual bandwidths, LOO-MLL criterion, and modified EM algorithm.
result The proposed models prevent singular solutions and have promising performance.
New algorithm improves Gaussian process hyperparameter tuning for large datasets.
problem Scalable hyperparameter tuning for Gaussian processes on large datasets.
method Estimates smoothness and length-scale parameters in Matern kernel using novel loss functions.
result Improved uncertainty quantification over traditional methods.
A statistical model predicts generalization in few-shot learning.
problem Lack of validation sets in few-shot learning makes generalization estimation difficult.
method Introduced a Gaussian model of feature distribution and an unbiased estimator for class-conditional density distances.
result Our approach outperforms alternatives like leave-one-out cross-validation.
Paper proposes diagnostics for error and variance estimation in randomized matrix computations.
problem Safe use of randomized matrix algorithms in applications.
method Leave-one-out error estimator and jackknife resampling method.
result Provides rapid diagnostics to assess quality of randomized matrix computations.