A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes C2RM to mine cross-cryptocurrency relationships for better Bitcoin price prediction.
New method for estimating lead-lag times between non-synchronously observed point processes.
Detects lead-lag clusters in US equity market time series.
NAPLES resolves lead-lag analysis challenges in non-synchronous high-frequency data.
We propose a novel framework to investigate lead-lag relationships between two financial assets. Our framework bridges a gap between continuous-time modeling based on Brownian motion and the existing wavelet methods for lead-lag analysis based on discrete-time models and enables us to analyze the multi-scale structure …
Algorithm detects lead-lag relationships in multivariate time series.
This study examines lead-lag relationships in Chinese futures markets using high-frequency data.
Clusters asset classes to identify lead-lag relationships in market regimes.
Novel framework detects lead-lag relationships in Chinese A-share market.
We present the symmetric thermal optimal path (TOPS) method to determine the time-dependent lead-lag relationship between two stochastic time series. This novel version of the previously introduced TOP method alleviates some inconsistencies by imposing that the lead-lag relationship should be invariant with respect to …
The existence of time-lagged cross-correlations between the returns of a pair of assets, which is known as the lead-lag relationship, is a well-known stylized fact in financial econometrics. Recently some continuous-time models have been proposed to take account of the lead-lag relationship. Such a model does not follo…
New technique identifies lead-lag relationships in FX market during pandemic.
Method detects lead-lag relationships in multivariate time series.
We employ the thermal optimal path method to explore both the long-term and short-term interaction patterns between the onshore CNY and offshore CNH exchange rates (2012-2015). For the daily data, the CNY and CNH exchange rates show a weak alternate lead-lag structure in most of the time periods. When CNY and CNH displ…
Modeling lead-lag relationship between two text corpora for improved topic modeling.
Pairs Trading is carried out in the financial market to earn huge profits from known equilibrium relation between pairs of stock. In financial markets, seldom it is seen that stock pairs are correlated at particular lead or lag. This lead-lag relationship has been empirically studied in various financial markets. Earli…
New method speeds up lead-lag detection between asynchronous time series.
We propose a novel estimation procedure for scale-by-scale lead-lag relationships of financial assets observed at high-frequency in a non-synchronous manner. The proposed estimation procedure does not require any interpolation processing of original datasets and is applicable to those with highest time resolution avail…
The study examines network analysis for predicting stock market performance.
Lead/lag relationships are an important stylized fact at high frequency. Some assets follow the path of others with a small time lag. We provide indicators to measure this phenomenon using tick-by-tick data. Strongly asymmetric cross-correlation functions are empirically observed, especially in the future/stock case. W…
Hybrid method uses LLM to filter lead-lag relationships in prediction markets.
Recently the interest of researchers has shifted from the analysis of synchronous relationships of financial instruments to the analysis of more meaningful asynchronous relationships. Both of those analyses are concentrated only on Pearson's correlation coefficient and thus intraday lead-lag relationships associated wi…
In this paper, we propose a random projection approach to estimate variance in kernel ridge regression. Our approach leads to a consistent estimator of the true variance, while being computationally more efficient. Our variance estimator is optimal for a large family of kernels, including cubic splines and Gaussian ker…
New method reduces variance and bias in approximating indefinite kernels.
In our previous study we have presented an approach to studying lead--lag effect in financial markets using information and network theories. Methodology presented there, as well as previous studies using Pearson's correlation for the same purpose, approached the concept of lead--lag effect in a naive way. In this pape…
Kernel ridge regression imputation with consistent variance estimation for handling missing data.
Improves efficiency of random feature approximations for dot product kernels.
We introduce a method to infer lead-lag networks of agents' actions in complex systems. These networks open the way to both microscopic and macroscopic states prediction in such systems. We apply this method to trader-resolved data in the foreign exchange market. We show that these networks are remarkably persistent, w…
Lead-lag relationships among assets represent a useful tool for analyzing high frequency financial data. However, research on these relationships predominantly focuses on correlation analyses for the dynamics of stock prices, spots and futures on market indexes, whereas foreign exchange data have been less explored. To…
We utilize the symmetric thermal optimal path (TOPS) method to examine the dynamic interaction patterns between the VIX and VIX futures markets. We document that the VIX dominates the VIX futures more in the first few years, especially before the introduction of VIX options. We further observe that the TOPS paths show …
The paper analyzes how re-weighting helps in reducing variance in high-dimensional kernel methods under covariate shifts.
Faster convergence of kernel mean embeddings using variance information.
We introduce a framework to infer lead-lag networks between the states of elements of complex systems, determined at different timescales. As such networks encode the causal structure of a system, infering lead-lag networks for many pairs of timescales provides a global picture of the mutual influence between timescale…
We report on time-varying network connectedness within three banking systems: North America, the EU, and ASEAN. The original method by Diebold and Yilmaz is improved by using exponentially weighted daily returns and ridge regularization on vector autoregression (VAR) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). We…
Study examines how economic policy uncertainty impacts stock markets.
Study on fluctuations in neural network kernels and predictions, focusing on finite width effects.
We propose a method to infer lead-lag networks of traders from the observation of their trade record as well as to reconstruct their state of supply and demand when they do not trade. The method relies on the Kinetic Ising model to describe how information propagates among traders, assigning a positive or negative "opi…
Unified framework for spectral methods, kernel learning, and manifold unfolding.
The method of "random Fourier features (RFF)" has become a popular tool for approximating the "radial basis function (RBF)" kernel. The variance of RFF is actually large. Interestingly, the variance can be substantially reduced by a simple normalization step as we theoretically demonstrate. We name the improved scheme …
New RFs reduce kernel approximation variance and improve Transformer performance.
According to the leading models in modern finance, the presence of intraday lead-lag relationships between financial assets is negligible in efficient markets. With the advance of technology, however, markets have become more sophisticated. To determine whether this has resulted in an improved market efficiency, we inv…
Boundary effects inflate variance in Gaussian processes, leading to acquisition bias.
In an efficient stock market, the log-returns and their time-dependent variances are often jointly modelled by stochastic volatility models (SVMs). Many SVMs assume that errors in log-return and latent volatility process are uncorrelated, which is unrealistic. It turns out that if a non-zero correlation is included in …
Kernel-smoothed scores improve diffusion models by reducing memorization.
Unified method for MMD variance estimation improves accuracy and computational efficiency.
Develops a kernel-based framework for dynamic trading strategies.
The paper introduces a new framework to assess generative model uncertainty.
We consider the problem of streaming kernel regression, when the observations arrive sequentially and the goal is to recover the underlying mean function, assumed to belong to an RKHS. The variance of the noise is not assumed to be known. In this context, we tackle the problem of tuning the regularization parameter ada…