A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new autoencoder method uses empirical beta copulas for generating data.
A novel stepwise VI method using vine copulas for complex latent dependence.
Variational language models seek to estimate the posterior of latent variables with an approximated variational posterior. The model often assumes the variational posterior to be factorized even when the true posterior is not. The learned variational posterior under this assumption does not capture the dependency relat…
Copulas allow to learn marginal distributions separately from the multivariate dependence structure (copula) that links them together into a density function. Vine factorizations ease the learning of high-dimensional copulas by constructing a hierarchy of conditional bivariate copulas. However, to simplify inference, i…
Correlation mixtures of elliptical copulas arise when the correlation parameter is driven itself by a latent random process. For such copulas, both penultimate and asymptotic tail dependence are much larger than for ordinary elliptical copulas with the same unconditional correlation. Furthermore, for Gaussian and Stude…
Graphical models are commonly used tools for modeling multivariate random variables. While there exist many convenient multivariate distributions such as Gaussian distribution for continuous data, mixed data with the presence of discrete variables or a combination of both continuous and discrete variables poses new cha…
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a generative model with continuous latent variables where a pair of probabilistic encoder (bottom-up) and decoder (top-down) is jointly learned by stochastic gradient variational Bayes. We first elaborate Gaussian VAE, approximating the local covariance matrix of the decoder as an o…
New method for mixed data types in graphical models.
We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility (GCPV), to predict the latent standard deviations of a sequence of random varia…
Using one of the key property of copulas that they remain invariant under an arbitrary monotonous change of variable, we investigate the null hypothesis that the dependence between financial assets can be modeled by the Gaussian copula. We find that most pairs of currencies and pairs of major stocks are compatible with…
Proposes a copula-driven framework for multimodal learning.
We utilize copulas to constitute a unified framework for constructing and optimizing variational proposals in hierarchical Bayesian models. For models with continuous and non-Gaussian hidden variables, we propose a semiparametric and automated variational Gaussian copula approach, in which the parametric Gaussian copul…
New method estimates Gaussian copulas with missing data using EM algorithm.
GCMM improves clustering and fits un-synchronized data.
We introduce a new functional measure of tail dependence for weakly dependent (asymptotically independent) random vectors, termed weak tail dependence function. The new measure is defined at the level of copulas and we compute it for several copula families such as the Gaussian copula, copulas of a class of Gaussian mi…
New method for learning multidimensional CDFs using Archimedean copulas.
Gaussian copulas are widely used in the industry to correlate two random variables when there is no prior knowledge about the co-dependence between them. The perturbed Gaussian copula approach allows introducing the skew information of both random variables into the co-dependence structure. The analytical expression of…
A new vine copula mixture model improves clustering accuracy for non-Gaussian data.
The paper examines how heavy-tailed risks behave under Gaussian copula models.
Flexible copula model using implicit generative neural networks.
A new copula model for multi-attribute data using optimal transport.
We improve Gaussian copula models for imputing mixed data types with precise approximations.
We tackle the problem of multi-task learning with copula process. Multivariable prediction in spatial and spatial-temporal processes such as natural resource estimation and pollution monitoring have been typically addressed using techniques based on Gaussian processes and co-Kriging. While the Gaussian prior assumption…
We consider the problem of learning parameters of latent variable models from mixed (continuous and ordinal) data with missing values. We propose a novel Bayesian Gaussian copula factor (BGCF) approach that is consistent under certain conditions and that is quite robust to the violations of these conditions. In simulat…
A2-SBNN models spatial data with copulas for non-Gaussian dependencies.
We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the dependency that is not captured by the original variational distribution, and thus …
Paper proposes copula-based models for analyzing multivariate zero-inflated continuous data.
A recommender system based on ranks is proposed, where an expert's ranking of a set of objects and a user's ranking of a subset of those objects are combined to make a prediction of the user's ranking of all objects. The rankings are assumed to be induced by latent continuous variables corresponding to the grades assig…
All too often measuring statistical dependencies between financial time series is reduced to a linear correlation coefficient. However this may not capture all facets of reality. We study empirical dependencies of daily stock returns by their pairwise copulas. Here we investigate particularly to which extent the non-st…
Deep latent variable models are powerful tools for representation learning. In this paper, we adopt the deep information bottleneck model, identify its shortcomings and propose a model that circumvents them. To this end, we apply a copula transformation which, by restoring the invariance properties of the information b…
Time series models generalize ARMA and ARFIMA with non-Gaussian dependence.
To model high dimensional data, Gaussian methods are widely used since they remain tractable and yield parsimonious models by imposing strong assumptions on the data. Vine copulas are more flexible by combining arbitrary marginal distributions and (conditional) bivariate copulas. Yet, this adaptability is accompanied b…
We introduce a new category of multivariate conditional generative models and demonstrate its performance and versatility in probabilistic time series forecasting and simulation. Specifically, the output of quantile regression networks is expanded from a set of fixed quantiles to the whole Quantile Function by a univar…
Adaptive Bernstein copulas improve risk management by preventing overfitting and reducing simulation effort.
New online imputation method for mixed data improves accuracy and speed.
Dynamic Vine Copulas detect and quantify time-varying higher-order interactions in multivariate systems.
Principal component analysis (PCA) is arguably the most popular tool in multivariate exploratory data analysis. In this paper, we consider the question of how to handle heterogeneous variables that include continuous, binary, and ordinal. In the probabilistic interpretation of low-rank PCA, the data has a normal multiv…
We use copulas to improve SLAM in uncertain environments.
Identifies interpretable generative model for multivariate data.
The cumulative distribution network (CDN) is a recently developed class of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) permitting a copula factorization, in which the CDF, rather than the density, is factored. Despite there being much recent interest within the machine learning community about copula representations, there h…
The article models financial asset returns using Gaussian mixtures and EVT-based copulas to price equity options.
Develops a new approach for algorithmic recourse in AI systems.
In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean- portfolio we compute portfolio's Profit and Loss series and corresponded risk measures curves. Value-…
The estimation of dependencies between multiple variables is a central problem in the analysis of financial time series. A common approach is to express these dependencies in terms of a copula function. Typically the copula function is assumed to be constant but this may be inaccurate when there are covariates that cou…
Copulas have become an important tool in the modern best practice Enterprise Risk Management, often supplanting other approaches to modelling stochastic dependence. However, choosing the `right' copula is not an easy task, and the temptation to prefer a tractable rather than a meaningful candidate from the encompassing…
New formula for portfolio risk management using conditional PDEs.
This paper considers a new family of variational distributions motivated by Sklar's theorem. This family is based on new copula-like densities on the hypercube with non-uniform marginals which can be sampled efficiently, i.e. with a complexity linear in the dimension of state space. Then, the proposed variational densi…
We examine a network of learners which address the same classification task but must learn from different data sets. The learners cannot share data but instead share their models. Models are shared only one time so as to preserve the network load. We introduce DELCO (standing for Decentralized Ensemble Learning with CO…