PGA neural network improves uncertainty quantification in lake temperature modeling.
problem Quantifying uncertainties in lake temperature models while maintaining physical consistency.
method Integrates physical constraints into neural networks using Monte Carlo Dropout.
result Ensures better generalizability and physical consistency in MC estimates.
Physics-guided models improve lake temperature and quality predictions.
problem Predicting and monitoring water temperature and quality in lakes.
method Combining physics-based models and recurrent neural networks with physical constraints.
result Improved prediction accuracy and scientific consistency.
PGNN combines physics models with neural nets for lake temperature prediction.
problem Lake temperature modeling with physical constraints.
method Physics-guided neural networks using hybrid modeling and physics-based loss functions.
result PGNN improves generalizability and scientific consistency in lake temperature predictions.
Improved water balance model for large lakes using statistical methods.
problem Uncertainty and bias in independent input measurements for large lake hydrologic cycles.
method Developed a Bayesian statistical water balance model (L2SWBM) for Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron.
result Demonstrated L2SWBM from 26 alternatives that adequately close the water balance of the lakes.
Study on travel time formulas in a lake with wind flow.
problem Travel time in a lake with wind flow.
method Geometric approach using Finsler metrics.
result Formulas for distances and travel times derived.
Temperature scaling improves model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.
problem Improving the calibration and stochasticity of probabilistic models.
method Investigates theoretical properties of temperature scaling in classification and LLMs.
result Temperature scaling increases model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.
Introduce a thermodynamically informed, temperature-transferable MLCG framework for proteins.
problem Temperature transferability of MLCG models for proteins.
method Explicit decomposition of CG potential into energetic and entropic components.
result Reproduces temperature-dependent quantities like heat capacity.
This paper measures temperature in agent systems using volatility.
problem How to measure temperature in agent systems.
method Examined an agent system with two decision options in a news environment, established the measurement equation, and outlined the concept of temperature measurement.
result Illustrated a strategy for influencing average opinion in competing subsystems.
A new method selects optimal temperature for Bayesian Deep Learning.
problem Finding the optimal temperature for improving predictive performance in Bayesian Deep Learning.
method Data-driven approach to estimate temperature as a model parameter.
result Our method performs comparably to grid search but at a fraction of the cost.
The paper analyzes extreme temperature forecasting using machine learning models.
problem Forecasting extreme temperatures in U.S. cities.
method Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Multilayer Perceptrons, Gaussian Processes.
result Multilayer Perceptrons were found to be the most effective approach for forecasting extreme temperatures.
Study local sensitivity of HDD and CDD temperature derivatives prices.
problem Understanding how temperature derivatives prices change with small temperature changes.
method Analyzes sensitivity of HDD and CDD futures and options prices to temperature perturbations using a CAR process.
result Identifies the order of the CAR process and its impact on temperature derivatives prices.
Algorithm learns Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model parameters at low temperatures.
problem Learning parameters of random graphical models at low temperatures.
method Multiplicative-weight update algorithm for polynomial time learning.
result Algorithm learns SK model parameters at β ≤ log n β\leq \sqrt{\log n} β ≤ log n . Develops a new stochastic volatility model for temperature derivatives.
problem Assessing risk related to temperature volatility.
method Conditional Least Squares and Fourier transform techniques.
result Better assessment of temperature volatility risk.
Simple object representations improve model-free RL performance.
problem Current reinforcement learning agents lack object recognition.
method Used simple, feature-engineered object representations with the Rainbow model.
result Object representations significantly boost performance on Atari games.
New method uses RBM flows to find critical temperatures in Ising models.
problem Detecting critical temperatures in RBM flows without model topology information.
method Iterative sampling from RBM mapped on Ising model temperature space using a neural network thermometer.
result Flow of RBM trained on Ising spin configurations approaches critical temperature around k B T c / J ≈ 2.269 k_B T_c / J \approx 2.269 k B T c / J ≈ 2.269 . The paper prices weather contracts using a complex temperature model.
problem Accurate pricing of weather contracts under temperature dynamics.
method Time-changed Levy model with mean-reverting dynamics, Fourier expansion, Esscher transform.
result An accurate approximation of weather contract prices.
Humans learn a predictive model of the world and use this model to reason about future events and the consequences of actions. In contrast to most machine predictors, we exhibit an impressive ability to generalize to unseen scenarios and reason intelligently in these settings. One important aspect of this ability is ph…
In the spirit of behavioral finance, we study the process of opinion formation among investors using a variant of the 2D Voter Model with a tunable social temperature. Further, a feedback acting on the temperature is introduced, such that social temperature reacts to market imbalances and thus becomes time dependent. I…
Logit-GFN accelerates GFlowNets training by scaling logits based on temperature.
problem Training temperature-conditional GFlowNets is numerically challenging.
method Logit-GFN uses a learned function of temperature to scale policy logits.
result Logit-GFN greatly accelerates GFlowNets training and improves generalization and mode discovery.
This paper calibrates uncertainty in dropout variational inference models.
problem Uncertainty in variational inference with dropout is poorly calibrated.
method Temperature scaling is extended to dropout variational inference.
result Temperature scaling reduces miscalibration of uncertainty.
Modeling temperature dynamics for weather derivatives using a novel regime-switching model.
problem Basis risk in weather derivatives due to poor design and modelling of temperature.
method Novel time-varying mean-reversion Lévy regime-switching model.
result The proposed model accurately models deseasonalized temperature data.
Study shows sample complexity for logistic regression with normal covariates.
problem Estimating parameters of logistic regression with normal design.
method Analyzes sample complexity in terms of dimension and inverse temperature.
result Shows two change-points in sample complexity curve based on inverse temperature.
A spin model relating physical to financial variables is presented. This work is the first to introduce the concept of negative absolute temperature into stock market dynamics by establishing a rigorous formal analogy between physical and financial variables. Based on this model, an algorithm evaluating negative temper…
The paper analyzes the InfoNCE loss under different temperature schedules using Langevin dynamics.
problem Understanding the dynamics of InfoNCE loss under fixed versus annealed temperature schedules.
method Modeling embedding evolution under Langevin dynamics on a compact Riemannian manifold, with theoretical guarantees for convergence.
result Slow logarithmic inverse-temperature schedules ensure convergence to globally optimal representations, while faster schedules risk suboptimal minima.
New method clusters hydrological and sediment data for storm event analysis.
problem Analyzing storm events for water quality constituents like turbidity.
method Multivariate time series clustering of river discharge and sediment data.
result Clusters differ from 2-D hysteresis loop classifications.
CNN detects phase transitions in Potts models without prior knowledge.
problem Detecting phase transitions in q q q -state Potts models using deep learning. method Trained a deep CNN on Ising model spin configurations and temperatures, then tested on Potts model images.
result Deep CNN accurately detects phase transitions in Potts models, including high- and low-temperature regions.
We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential, where the `temperature' fluctuates slowly. The model generally yields a fat-tailed…
Introduces bi-temperature logistic loss for more robust training.
problem Training neural nets with noise robustness.
method Introduces two temperatures into logistic loss and Bregman divergences.
result Training becomes more robust to noise with bi-temperature loss.
Researchers derive the relation between temperature and volatility in ideal agent systems.
problem Deriving the exact algebraic relation between temperature and volatility in ideal agent systems.
method Analogy with spin systems from statistical physics.
result Derive the exact algebraic relation between temperature and volatility for an ideal agent system.
Develops algorithms to estimate trends in global temperature variability.
problem Estimating trends in cloud reflectance temperature variability.
method Two novel algorithms for dense, gridded observations over space and time.
result Evaluation of methods with simulated and real-world data.
Machine learning and deep learning infer surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data.
problem Inferring surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data with high temporal resolution.
method Application of machine learning and deep learning algorithms to infer surface/groundwater exchange flux from subsurface temperature observations.
result DL methods outperform ML methods in interpreting noisy temperature data, especially with a smoothing filter.
This study evaluates machine learning models for precise temperature estimation in PMSMs.
problem Precise temperature monitoring of PMSMs for automotive applications.
method Evaluation of various machine learning models (ordinary and weighted least squares, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, randomized trees, neural networks) on collected data.
result ML models can predict magnet temperature profiles as accurately as classical models, but differ in model size and efficiency.
The paper compares machine learning models for forecasting residential gas demand, highlighting the impact of temperature forecasts.
problem Forecasting residential gas demand for optimal energy planning.
method Implemented and compared five models: Ridge Regression, GP, k-Nearest Neighbour, ANN, and Torus Model.
result ANN is the best model in terms of RMSE, while GP is the best in terms of MAE.
Temperature scaling fails for distributions with class overlaps, while Mixup improves calibration.
problem Temperature scaling's performance degrades with class overlaps, leading to poor calibration.
method Identified temperature scaling's limitations and compared it with Mixup for calibration.
result Mixup significantly outperforms temperature scaling in calibration metrics with class overlaps.
Bayesian framework quantifies uncertainty in portfolio temperature alignment.
problem Uncertainty in portfolio temperature alignment models.
method X-Degree Compatibility (XDC) approach with FaIR climate model, adaptive MCMC, deep learning emulator.
result Robust parametric uncertainty quantification for FaIR model.
Combines ocean surface and interior data to study ocean dynamics.
problem Modeling local ocean currents and global climate patterns.
method Observation-driven framework using Latent-class regression.
result Improved prediction of vertical ocean temperature.
Climate volatility reduces economic growth, especially in poorer countries.
problem Impact of climate volatility on economic growth.
method Exploiting data on 133 countries over 59 years, controlling for temperature changes.
result A 1 degree C increase in temperature volatility leads to a 0.3% decline in GDP growth.
New adaptive temperature selection improves parallel tempering efficiency.
problem Enhancing mixing in multi-modal distributions using parallel tempering.
method Adaptive temperature selection using policy gradient approach.
result Lower integrated autocorrelation times achieved compared to traditional methods.
New model uses heteroscedastic Gaussian process for alkenone SST proxy.
problem Restoring historical sea surface temperatures using proxies.
method Heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression method.
result Nonparametric approach handles variable noise patterns and outliers.
Attention temperature improves robustness of ICL in high-dimensional settings.
problem ICL robustness failure under distribution shift in high dimensions.
method Analyzed a Transformer with approximate softmax attention, derived a closed-form error expression, and showed optimal temperature minimizes error.
result Optimal attention temperature minimizes ICL generalization error under distribution shift.
Cold posteriors improve Bayesian neural networks by reducing overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks.
method Tuning the temperature of the posterior on a validation set.
result Reducing temperature leads to better reflection of true prior beliefs.
Softmax temperature influences model representation rank and performance.
problem Understanding and optimizing softmax function's impact on model representations.
method Investigated softmax function's role in deep neural networks, introduced rank deficit bias.
result Softmax temperature affects model representation rank and can improve performance.
Bayesian GNNs with temperature improve prediction efficiency in CP.
problem Efficiency of prediction sets in CP for GNNs.
method Introducing a temperature parameter into Bayesian GNNs within the CP framework.
result More efficient prediction sets achieved with the temperature parameter.
CNN improves medium-range temperature forecasts with limited resources.
problem Limited computational resources for high-resolution temperature forecasts.
method CNN post-processing with ensemble NWP models for bias correction and spatial downscaling.
result High-resolution (5-km) surface temperature forecasts with lead times up to 5.5 days.
Embeds spherically symmetric space-times into 5D flat space, matching Hawking temperature.
problem Finding conditions for embedding spherically symmetric space-times into flat 5D space.
method Explicitly constructs embeddings for any spherically symmetric Lorentzian metric in 3+1 dimensions.
result Hawking temperature matches Unruh temperature for Schwarzschild metric.
Unified framework for critical scaling of inverse temperature in self-attention.
problem Conflicting inverse-temperature laws for long-context self-attention.
method Counting gaps and defining an upper-tail accumulation scale.
result Critical inverse-temperature scale determined by gap-counting function.
TemperatureGAN generates hourly atmospheric temperature data with high fidelity.
problem Generating accurate hourly atmospheric temperature data for climate risk assessment.
method Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) conditioned on months, locations, and time periods.
result TemperatureGAN produces high-fidelity hourly atmospheric temperature data with good spatial and temporal consistency.
The Gibbs algorithm's generalization error is bounded, improving with prior volume in low temperatures.
problem Bounding the generalization error of the Gibbs algorithm in low temperature regimes.
method Analyzes the Gibbs algorithm's performance, extending known high-temperature bounds to low-temperature scenarios.
result With high probability, the generalization error decreases with the total prior volume of similar hypotheses.