Compressed LLM embeddings improve noisy regression tasks without overfitting.
problem Noisy regression tasks with high signal-to-noise ratios.
method Comparison of embedding compression techniques using autoencoder hidden representations.
result Compression improves performance on noisy tasks like financial return prediction.
Improved text-conditioned regression using LLMs and diffusion-based neural processes.
problem Major error cascades and computational inefficiency in LLMs for short sequences.
method Combining LLM predictive densities with a diffusion-based neural process.
result Better-calibrated predictions and locally consistent trajectories.
Small LLMs outperform large ones on simple tasks without extra labelling costs.
problem Performance of large commercial models in simple classification tasks.
method Logistic Regression on small LLM embeddings.
result Small LLMs equal or outperform large LLMs in 'tens-of-shot' classification tasks.
LLM-Lasso uses LLMs to improve feature selection in Lasso regression.
problem Improving feature selection in Lasso regression with domain-specific knowledge.
method Combines LLMs with Lasso regularization to generate feature weights.
result Outperforms standard Lasso and feature selection baselines in biomedical studies.
We detect lookahead bias in LLM forecasts using a novel statistical method.
problem Detecting lookahead bias in LLM-generated economic forecasts.
method Developed a statistical procedure using date-only recall queries and estimated Lookahead Propensity (LAP).
result LLM forecasts are contaminated with lookahead bias, as indicated by a positive interaction between LAP and the forecast in accuracy regressions.
Model uses LLMs to process numerical data guided by natural language descriptions.
problem Challenges in integrating prior knowledge into probabilistic models.
method Developed LLM Processes to condition numerical predictive distributions on natural language.
result Improved predictive performance and structured qualitative descriptions.
FisherSFT selects informative examples to fine-tune LLMs efficiently.
problem Adapting large language models to new domains efficiently.
method Selects examples maximizing information gain using Hessian of log-likelihood.
result Empirically demonstrates improved performance with reduced computational cost.
This paper tests LLMs in finance to assess ethical behavior.
problem Aligning AI with ethical and legal standards in finance.
method Prompted LLMs to simulate CEO behavior, analyzed with logistic regression.
result Significant heterogeneity in LLMs' unethical behavior propensity.
Efficiently predict LLM benchmarks using feature selection and regression.
problem Predicting full benchmark scores with minimal question subsets.
method Multiple regression with feature selection, using kernel ridge regression and mRMR.
result Improved prediction accuracy and ranking correlation across various benchmarks.
Proposes an iterative algorithm for optimizing attention mechanisms in large language models.
problem Optimizing attention mechanisms in large language models.
method Iterative algorithm for rescaled hyperbolic functions regression.
result Efficiency and generalizability of the rescaled softmax regression framework.
This paper improves continuous adversarial training for LLMs using in-context learning theory.
problem Efficiently defending large language models (LLMs) against jailbreak attacks.
method The paper presents a theoretical analysis of continuous adversarial training (CAT) for LLMs based on in-context learning (ICL) theory, proving a robust generalization bound and proposing an improved regularization term.
result The robust generalization bound explains why CAT can defend against jailbreak prompts and shows that LLM robustness is related to embedding matrix singular values.
JoLT uses LLMs to make probabilistic predictions on tabular data.
problem Making probabilistic predictions on tabular data efficiently and without preprocessing.
method JoLT leverages LLMs' in-context learning to define joint distributions over tabular data.
result JoLT outperforms other methods on tabular classification and regression tasks.
A new method for optimizing regression problems with ReLU units converges.
problem Optimizing regression problems involving ReLU units in large language models.
method Introduced a greedy algorithm based on approximate Newton method, proving convergence in terms of the distance to optimal solution.
result The method converges in the sense of the distance to optimal solution under certain assumptions.
A simple method reduces bias in LLM auto-evaluators by controlling output length.
problem Bias in LLM auto-annotators, particularly length bias.
method Simple regression analysis to control for length difference and other mediators.
result Improved robustness and increased correlation with human preferences.
NIFTY dataset for financial forecasting models.
problem Improving financial market forecasting with LLMs.
method Two datasets for supervised and reinforcement learning.
result Demonstrates applications in stock price prediction.
A new, low-cost method speeds up membership inference attacks on large language models.
problem Membership inference attacks on large language models.
method An ensemble of small quantile regression models to determine model training set membership.
result Comparable or improved accuracy with significantly reduced computational cost.
Paper uses LLMs to detect financial anomalies.
problem Detecting irregular financial entries.
method Non-semantic financial data encoding with LLMs embeddings, tested 3 models.
result LLMs improve anomaly detection in financial data.
This work extends the scaling law to multiple and kernel regression, challenging traditional machine learning principles.
problem Challenging traditional machine learning wisdom with scaling law in large practical models.
method Demonstrates the scaling law in multiple and kernel regression settings.
result The scaling law extends to multiple and kernel regression, providing deeper insights into LLMs.
This study evaluates LLMs for sentiment analysis in stock price prediction.
problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy using LLMs for news sentiment analysis.
method Compared 3 LLMs (DeBERTa, RoBERTa, FinBERT) for sentiment-driven stock prediction.
result DeBERTa outperforms other models with 75% accuracy, and ensemble model increases accuracy to 80%.
LLMs outperform strong tabular baselines on industrial car retrofit prediction.
problem Industrial retrofit planning on structured operational data
method Embedding features, direct prompted classification, and ML+LLM stacking
result LLMs outperform strong tabular baselines on industrial car retrofit prediction
Shorter adversarial prompts help protect LLMs from jailbreak attacks.
problem Protecting large language models from jailbreak attacks with long adversarial suffixes.
method Adversarial training on shorter adversarial suffixes to defend against longer adversarial suffixes.
result Aligning LLMs on shorter adversarial suffixes can effectively defend against jailbreak attacks with longer suffixes.
The study finds that supply chain information from LLM embeddings improves stock returns predictions.
problem Predicting stock returns using textual information from annual reports.
method Combining LLM embeddings of annual reports with supply chain knowledge graph propagation.
result Network-augmented embeddings significantly predict stock returns with a Sharpe ratio of 0.86 and alpha of 7.27%.
EDINET-Bench evaluates LLMs on complex financial tasks using Japanese financial statements.
problem Challenges in evaluating LLMs on financial tasks due to specialized expertise and scarce benchmarks.
method Developed EDINET-Bench, an open-source Japanese financial benchmark for LLMs on tasks like fraud detection and earnings forecasting.
result State-of-the-art LLMs perform only marginally better than logistic regression in financial tasks, highlighting the need for more realistic benchmarks.
GPT-4 improves stock price prediction from microblogging sentiments.
problem Improving stock price prediction using sentiment analysis of microblogs.
method Developed a novel method for contextual sentiment analysis using GPT-4, fine-tuning prompts for better accuracy.
result GPT-4 outperformed BERT in predicting stock price movements, achieving a peak accuracy of 71.47%.
This work investigates how multi-round reasoning improves LLM performance.
problem Improving problem-solving abilities in complex tasks with LLMs.
method Investigates approximation, learnability, and generalization properties of multi-round auto-regressive models.
result Transformers with finite context windows are universal approximators for Turing-computable functions and can approximate any Turing-computable sequence-to-sequence function through multi-round reasoning.
LLMs learn new tasks from unstructured data, but it depends on word co-occurrence and positional information.
problem Understanding how LLMs can learn new tasks from unstructured data without explicit training.
method Examined the capabilities of LLMs trained on unstructured data, focusing on sequence model requirements and training data structure.
result Many ICL capabilities can emerge from word co-occurrence in unstructured data, but positional information is crucial for certain tasks.
Improved text generation with constraints using discrete auto-regressive biasing.
problem Balancing fluency and constraint satisfaction in LLM outputs.
method Discrete Auto-regressive Biasing, leveraging gradients in discrete text space.
result Significantly improved constraint satisfaction with comparable fluency.
Calibrated PRMs improve inference efficiency for LLMs by dynamically adjusting compute budgets.
problem Poor calibration of PRMs leads to overestimation of success probabilities in partial reasoning steps.
method Quantile regression for calibration, instance-adaptive scaling (IAS) framework.
result Calibrated PRMs reduce inference costs while maintaining accuracy, especially on confident problems.
The paper analyzes how repeating epochs affects data scaling in linear regression.
problem Understanding how to scale data for multi-epoch training in linear regression.
method Theoretical analysis of effective reuse rate (E(K, N)) under strong convexity or Zipf-distributed data.
result The effective reuse rate E(K, N) plateaus at a problem-dependent value that grows with N, indicating diminishing marginal gains.
Paper proposes CLAIR for efficient LLM fine-tuning across clients.
problem Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) efficiently and collaboratively.
method Federated LoRA fine-tuning with Collaborative Low-rank Alignment and Identifiable Recovery (CLAIR).
result CLAIR achieves better performance and contamination detection compared to local fine-tuning.
DRO-REBEL improves LLM alignment by robustly updating models online.
problem Overfitting and drifting of LLMs during RLHF.
method DRO-REBEL uses type-p Wasserstein, KL, and χ2 ambiguity sets for robust online updates. result DRO-REBEL achieves faster convergence and better performance than prior methods.
We discover scaling laws for kernel regression loss under various learning rate schedules.
problem Understanding loss dynamics and learning rate schedules in kernel regression.
method Theoretical analysis of stochastic gradient descent on a power-law kernel regression model.
result Established a Functional Scaling Law (FSL) capturing the full loss trajectory under arbitrary learning rate schedules.
Unified scheme combining softmax and ResNet for deep learning.
problem Combining softmax and ResNet for deep learning.
method Theoretical analysis of a unified scheme combining softmax regression and ResNet.
result Unified scheme connects previously unrelated fields and provides insights into loss landscape and optimization.
A trading system uses LLMs to adapt to volatile crypto markets.
problem Volatility and market sentiment in cryptocurrencies make traditional models ineffective.
method Specialized LLM agents for technical analysis, sentiment evaluation, and decision-making; verbal feedback for continuous improvement.
result Agents outperform buy-and-hold strategy with consistent gains across market phases.
This paper explores how model complexity affects performance in large language models.
problem Understanding how model complexity impacts performance in large language models.
method Employing Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model autoregressive LLMs and investigating the relationship between model complexity and generalization capability.
result Model complexity initially increases risk, then decreases, showcasing a 'double descent' phenomenon.
New framework analyzes LLM personalization trade-offs under congestion.
problem Tension between personalization and resource sharing in LLMs.
method Developed a statistical-economic framework to model user incentives.
result Congestion can flip rankings of SFT and ICL, and offers both methods never hurt profits.
AI uses language models to find instrumental variables quickly.
problem Finding valid instrumental variables is a challenging and heuristic process.
method Uses large language models to search for new instrumental variables through narratives and counterfactual reasoning.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of multi-step and role-playing prompting strategies for LLMs.
ChatGPT snapshots predict future stock returns.
problem Predicting future stock returns using pre-cutoff text.
method Extracted LLM outlook scores from OpenAI snapshots.
result Outlook scores positively correlate with future stock returns.
Traditional methods outperform LLMs in forecasting corporate credit ratings.
problem Forecasting corporate credit ratings using LLMs.
method Comparison of traditional methods (XGBoost) and LLMs (LLaMA) on credit rating forecasting.
result XGBoost outperforms LLMs in forecasting corporate credit ratings.
Unified framework to bridge human and LLM judgments.
problem Systematic discrepancies between human and LLM evaluations.
method Latent human preference score and linear transformations of covariates.
result Higher agreement with human ratings and exposure of systematic gaps.
New approach predicts tokens in context, explaining how ICL emerges.
problem Limited understanding of in-context learning emergence.
method Auto-regressive next-token prediction (AR-NTP) with prompt token-dependency and a two-level expectation.
result ICL emerges from the generalization of sequences and topics.
THERMOMETER calibrates LLMs efficiently for diverse tasks.
problem Calibrating large language models is challenging due to computational and versatility issues.
method THERMOMETER learns an auxiliary model for calibrating a LLM using data from multiple tasks.
result THERMOMETER produces better-calibrated responses for new tasks.
Regurgitative training with synthetic data harms LLM performance.
problem The impact of training LLMs with synthetic data generated by other LLMs.
method Fine-tuning GPT-3.5 with synthetic and real data in a machine translation task.
result Regurgitative training significantly reduces LLM performance.
Large language models predict stock market returns better than traditional methods.
problem Predicting stock market returns using financial news sentiment analysis.
method Analysis of large language models (LLMs) including BERT, OPT, FINBERT, and Loughran-McDonald dictionary model.
result OPT model shows highest accuracy (74.4%) in predicting stock market returns.
FLUID-LLM uses LLMs to predict fluid dynamics with improved accuracy.
problem Leveraging LLMs for CFD due to their pattern recognition abilities but struggles with fluid dynamics complexities.
method Combines pre-trained LLMs with spatiotemporal-aware encoding to predict unsteady fluid dynamics.
result Significant performance improvements in CFD predictions across various datasets.
LLMs mimic human traders in finance, but not as much as expected.
problem Evaluating how LLMs behave in financial markets.
method Adapted experimental design with LLMs and human traders, analyzed in single and mixed model settings.
result LLMs tend to price assets near their fundamental value, but not as much as humans, and show less trading strategy variance.
Scientific discovery is limited by hypothesis redundancy, and hybrid methods can exploit non-local exploration.
problem Limitation of scientific discovery due to hypothesis redundancy.
method Hybrid discovery systems combining structured local search with LLM-generated non-local proposals.
result Hybrid methods can exploit non-local exploration when three geometric conditions co-occur.
Paper presents a probabilistic model to improve LLM cascade performance.
problem Complexity of LLM cascades and their interaction error rates.
method Probabilistic model for joint performance distribution of LLMs.
result Improves area under the error-cost curve by 4.3% on average for cascades with k≥3 models.