arXiv research

In this note, we study the ultimate ruin probabilities of a real-valued L{é}vy process X with light-tailed negative jumps. It is well-known that, for such L{é}vy processes, the probability of ruin decreases as an exponential function with a rate given by the root of the Laplace exponent, when the initial value goes to …

This paper presents generalized momentum mappings for covariant Hamiltonian field theories. The new momentum mappings arise from a generalization of symplectic geometry to $L_VY$, the bundle of vertically adapted linear frames over the bundle of field configurations $Y$. Specifically, the generalized field momentum obs…

This article is devoted to the maximisation of HARA utilities of L{é}vy switching process on finite time interval via dual method. We give the description of all f-divergence minimal martingale measures in initially enlarged filtration, the expression of their Radon-Nikodym densities involving Hellinger and Kulback-Lei…

In this paper, we study the ruin problem with investment in a general framework where the business part X is a L{é}vy process and the return on investment R is a semimartingale. We obtain upper bounds on the finite and infinite time ruin probabilities that decrease as a power function when the initial capital increases…

Let $M$ be a manifold, $V$ be a vector field on $M$, and $B$ be a Banach space. For any fixed function $f:M\rightarrow B$ and any fixed complex number $λ$, we study Hyers-Ulam stability of the global differential equation $Vy=λy+f$.

In this paper, we provide a representation theorem for dynamic capital allocation under It{ô}-L{é}vy model. We consider the representation of dynamic risk measures defined under Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDE) with generators that grow quadratic-exponentially in the control variables. Dynamic capital …

We introduce a class of interest rate models, called the $α$-CIR model, which gives a natural extension of the standard CIR model by adopting the $α$-stable L{é}vy process and preserving the branching property. This model allows to describe in a unified and parsimonious way several recent observations on the sovereign …

The Wiener-Hopf factorization is obtained in closed form for a phase type approximation to the CGMY Lévy process. This allows, for the approximation, exact computation of first passage times to barrier levels via Laplace transform inversion. Calibration of the CGMY model to market option prices defines the risk neutral…

Many recent papers address reading comprehension, where examples consist of (question, passage, answer) tuples. Presumably, a model must combine information from both questions and passages to predict corresponding answers. However, despite intense interest in the topic, with hundreds of published papers vying for lead…

Constructs supermartingale couplings with full marginals constraints.

We prove that a compact stratied space satises the Riemannian curvature-dimension condition RCD(K, N) if and only if its Ricci tensor is bounded below by K $\in$ R on the regular set, the cone angle along the stratum of codimension two is smaller than or equal to 2$π$ and its dimension is at most equal to N. This gives…

The distribution of trade sizes and trading volumes are investigated based on the limit order book data of 22 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. We observe that the size distribution of trades for individual stocks exhibits jumps, which is caused by the number preference…

We provide an empirical investigation aimed at uncovering the statistical properties of intricate stock trading networks based on the order flow data of a highly liquid stock (Shenzhen Development Bank) listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange during the whole year of 2003. By reconstructing the limit order book, we can extra…

Modeling financial markets with a novel order flow model.

The paper introduces BCART models for aggregate claim amount, improving frequency-severity and joint modeling.

The paper uses model-based trees to create interpretable surrogate models for complex machine learning models.

Gauge Flow Models use a learnable Gauge Field in Generative Flow Models.

The study examines how model predictions hold up under model extensions.

Revises Bayesian model averaging for foundation models.

Paper introduces symmetric divergence link models for probability distributions.

New method to handle credit portfolio model uncertainties.

The paper tests stock return models and uses LSTM to predict stock returns.

Researchers review challenges in interpreting additive models, especially neural additive models.

Novel hybrid modeling combines ML and physics for real-time diagnosis.

CRS model improves ranking data modeling with theoretical guarantees.

Sigma models linked to Gross-Neveu models via quiver varieties.

Interpretable machine learning has become a strong competitor for traditional black-box models. However, the possible loss of the predictive performance for gaining interpretability is often inevitable, putting practitioners in a dilemma of choosing between high accuracy (black-box models) and interpretability (interpr…

Simple models are preferred over complex models, but over-simplistic models could lead to erroneous interpretations. The classical approach is to start with a simple model, whose shortcomings are assessed in residual-based model diagnostics. Eventually, one increases the complexity of this initial overly simple model a…

Matryoshka hides secret models in a carrier model, achieving high capacity and robustness.

Eigen-stratified models reduce model size and improve performance.

Seq2Seq models speed up epidemic model predictions.

This work develops scalable model selection methods with fast update and selection.

Paper proposes BMPO to optimize policies using bidirectional models.

Copulas outperform marginal models in multivariate risk forecasting, reducing model risk by narrowing down the set of models.

BayesBlend blends multiple models' predictions for better insurance loss predictions.

The paper identifies when larger models improve predictions and proposes a switcher model.

Improved diffusion model generation speed with speculative sampling.

We propose a generalization of neural network sequence models. Instead of predicting one symbol at a time, our multi-scale model makes predictions over multiple, potentially overlapping multi-symbol tokens. A variation of the byte-pair encoding (BPE) compression algorithm is used to learn the dictionary of tokens that …

The paper extends statistical inference methods for black-box generative models.

PMM uses Bayesian inference to generate data from noisy approximations.

Unified model improves sampling speed and quality.

In science and especially in economics, agent-based modeling has become a widely used modeling approach. These models are often formulated as a large system of difference equations. In this study, we discuss two aspects, numerical modeling and the probabilistic description for two agent-based computational economic mar…

Driven by an increasing need for model interpretability, interpretable models have become strong competitors for black-box models in many real applications. In this paper, we propose a novel type of model where interpretable models compete and collaborate with black-box models. We present the Model-Agnostic Linear Comp…

Combining models in appropriate ways to achieve high performance is commonly seen in machine learning fields today. Although a large amount of combinatorial models have been created, little attention is drawn to the commons in different models and their connections. A general modelling technique is thus worth studying …

MaxEnt Model Correction improves reinforcement learning model accuracy.

Macroscopic price evolution models are commonly used for investment strategies. There are first promising achievements in defining microscopic agent based models for the same purpose. Microscopic models allow a deeper understanding of mechanisms in the market than the purely phenomenological macroscopic models, and thu…

Introduces model class selection to find sets of near-optimal models.

Latent tree models are graphical models defined on trees, in which only a subset of variables is observed. They were first discussed by Judea Pearl as tree-decomposable distributions to generalise star-decomposable distributions such as the latent class model. Latent tree models, or their submodels, are widely used in:…