A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New dispersion indices based on inaccuracy and divergence introduced for information measures.
Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1) using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2) using traffic during the first year of operations as the basis for measu…
New method reduces inventory inaccuracies by 10x, saving retailers 4% annually.
Study finds inventory inaccuracies are linked to store activity and product perishability.
This article revisits an analysis on inaccuracies of time series averaging under dynamic time warping conducted by \cite{Niennattrakul2007}. The authors presented a correctness-criterion and introduced drift-outs of averages from clusters. They claimed that averages are inaccurate if they are incorrect or drift-outs. F…
Cost-benefit analysis often assumes accurate estimates, but this study finds significant inaccuracies.
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty which won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy…
Inexact acquisition solutions in BO lead to sublinear cumulative regret.
Due to its length and several inaccuracies, this article is no longer suggested for reading. Moreover, in the meantime certain results presented herein could be improved by the author in a non-trivial fashion. Instead, the reader is referred to the following two articles: The extrinsic holonomy Lie algebra of a paralle…
Develops Marsden-Meyer-Weinstein reduction for -contact field theories.
Practically, we are often in the dilemma that the labeled data at hand are inadequate to train a reliable classifier, and more seriously, some of these labeled data may be mistakenly labeled due to the various human factors. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel semi-supervised learning paradigm that can handle both l…
Every symplectic Lie algebra with degenerate (including non-abelian nilpotent symplectic Lie algebras) has the structure of a quadratic extension. We give a standard model and describe the equivalence classes on the level of corresponding quadratic cohomology sets. Finally, we give a scheme to classify the isomorphism …
This paper characterizes the conditional distribution properties of the finite sample ridge regression estimator and uses that result to evaluate total regression and generalization errors that incorporate the inaccuracies committed at the time of parameter estimation. The paper provides explicit formulas for those err…
New method reduces confidence interval sizes for causal inference.
Nonparametric mixture models based on the Dirichlet process are an elegant alternative to finite models when the number of underlying components is unknown, but inference in such models can be slow. Existing attempts to parallelize inference in such models have relied on introducing approximations, which can lead to in…
We present a convergence rate analysis for biased stochastic gradient descent (SGD), where individual gradient updates are corrupted by computation errors. We develop stochastic quadratic constraints to formulate a small linear matrix inequality (LMI) whose feasible points lead to convergence bounds of biased SGD. Base…
Trajectory optimization using a learned model of the environment is one of the core elements of model-based reinforcement learning. This procedure often suffers from exploiting inaccuracies of the learned model. We propose to regularize trajectory optimization by means of a denoising autoencoder that is trained on the …
Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to incorrect posterior predictive distributions. We present a novel approach that corr…
Model based predictions of future trajectories of a dynamical system often suffer from inaccuracies, forcing model based control algorithms to re-plan often, thus being computationally expensive, suboptimal and not reliable. In this work, we propose a model agnostic method for estimating the uncertainty of a model?s pr…
Often machine learning methods are applied and results reported in cases where there is little to no information concerning accuracy of the output. Simply because a computer program returns a result does not insure its validity. If decisions are to be made based on such results it is important to have some notion of th…
This paper is an updated version of a survey on projective configurations of subspaces in general position. The preceding version was published in Russian in 1989 and in English in 1990 (in Leningrad Math. J.) opening a new section ``Light reading for the professional''. The paper is written in the form of introduction…
A method to improve sequential learning by keeping past data errors in check.
This book is a detailed introduction to the theory of finite type (Vassiliev) knot invariants, with a stress on its combinatorial aspects. It is intended to serve both as a textbook for readers with no or little background in this area, and as a guide to some of the more advanced material. Our aim is to lead the reader…
Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in 2016? and 2) how to improve the accuracies of opinion polls? In this paper, we …
The problem of estimating the number of sources and their angles of arrival from a single antenna array observation has been an active area of research in the signal processing community for the last few decades. When the number of sources is large, the maximum likelihood estimator is intractable due to its very high c…
SA-GFN corrects biases in GFlowNets due to graph symmetries.
We study a probabilistic numerical method for the solution of both boundary and initial value problems that returns a joint Gaussian process posterior over the solution. Such methods have concrete value in the statistics on Riemannian manifolds, where non-analytic ordinary differential equations are involved in virtual…
Improved bounds for proximal gradient algorithms with computational errors.
Model-based reinforcement learning could enable sample-efficient learning by quickly acquiring rich knowledge about the world and using it to improve behaviour without additional data. Learned dynamics models can be directly used for planning actions but this has been challenging because of inaccuracies in the learned …
Market inefficiencies persist in DEXes, especially during high volatility.
Novel method for solving ODEs on k-polysymplectic manifolds.
Paper discusses directional differentiability of interval-valued functions on Riemannian manifolds.
The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal inference studies may require unobserved high-level information which needs to be …
Online health communities are a valuable source of information for patients and physicians. However, such user-generated resources are often plagued by inaccuracies and misinformation. In this work we propose a method for automatically establishing the credibility of user-generated medical statements and the trustworth…
Neural network accuracy improves with denser training samples.
The inaccuracy of neural network models on inputs that do not stem from the training data distribution is both problematic and at times unrecognized. Model uncertainty estimation can address this issue, where uncertainty estimates are often based on the variation in predictions produced by a diverse ensemble of models …
The goal of this paper is to present a method for simultaneous trajectory and local stabilizing policy optimization to generate local policies for trajectory-centric model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL). This is motivated by the fact that global policy optimization for non-linear systems could be a very challengin…
Recently, Petrik et al. demonstrated that L1Regularized Approximate Linear Programming (RALP) could produce value functions and policies which compared favorably to established linear value function approximation techniques like LSPI. RALP's success primarily stems from the ability to solve the feature selection and va…
Pattern ensembling fills in missing or inaccurate trajectory data.
In this paper we study a model-based approach to calculating approximately optimal policies in Markovian Decision Processes. In particular, we derive novel bounds on the loss of using a policy derived from a factored linear model, a class of models which generalize numerous previous models out of those that come with s…
Improved sample efficiency in reinforcement learning with deep Gaussian processes.
High-dimensional data pose challenges in statistical learning and modeling. Sometimes the predictors can be naturally grouped where pursuing the between-group sparsity is desired. Collinearity may occur in real-world high-dimensional applications where the popular technique suffers from both selection inconsisten…
New IF method improves accuracy in deep neural networks with noisy data.
Model-based reinforcement learning is an appealing framework for creating agents that learn, plan, and act in sequential environments. Model-based algorithms typically involve learning a transition model that takes a state and an action and outputs the next state---a one-step model. This model can be composed with itse…
Acceleration of machine learning research in healthcare is challenged by lack of large annotated and balanced datasets. Furthermore, dealing with measurement inaccuracies and exploiting unsupervised data are considered to be central to improving existing solutions. In particular, a primary objective in predictive model…
We in this paper propose a realizable framework TECU, which embeds task-specific strategies into update schemes of coordinate descent, for optimizing multivariate non-convex problems with coupled objective functions. On one hand, TECU is capable of improving algorithm efficiencies through embedding productive numerical…
The impact of a stress scenario of default events on the loss distribution of a credit portfolio can be assessed by determining the loss distribution conditional on these events. While it is conceptually easy to estimate loss distributions conditional on default events by means of Monte Carlo simulation, it becomes imp…
Pointer generator networks have been used successfully for abstractive summarization. Along with the capability to generate novel words, it also allows the model to copy from the input text to handle out-of-vocabulary words. In this paper, we point out two key shortcomings of the summaries generated with this framework…