arXiv research

New method estimates volatility for processes with jumps of unbounded variation.

New method estimates volatility for Lévy processes with unbounded jumps efficiently.

The value function of an optimal stopping problem for jump diffusions is known to be a generalized solution of a variational inequality. Assuming that the diffusion component of the process is nondegenerate and a mild assumption on the singularity of the Lévy measure, this paper shows that the value function of this op…

Study Fourier estimator for spot volatility with unbounded coefficients and jumps.

Study near-maturity convergence rates of American put prices in Lévy models.

In this paper, we adapt stochastic Perron's method to analyze a stochastic target problem with unbounded controls in a jump diffusion set-up. With this method, we construct a viscosity sub-solution and super-solution to the associated Hamiltonian-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations. Under comparison principles, uniqueness o…

The continuous-time random walk (CTRW) is a pure-jump stochastic process with several applications in physics, but also in insurance, finance and economics. A definition is given for a class of stochastic integrals driven by a CTRW, that includes the Ito and Stratonovich cases. An uncoupled CTRW with zero-mean jumps is…

This paper is devoted to obtaining a wellposedness result for multidimensional BSDEs with possibly unbounded random time horizon and driven by a general martingale in a filtration only assumed to satisfy the usual hypotheses, i.e. the filtration may be stochastically discontinuous. We show that for stochastic Lipschitz…

We analyse the behaviour of the implied volatility smile for options close to expiry in the exponential Lévy class of asset price models with jumps. We introduce a new renormalisation of the strike variable with the property that the implied volatility converges to a non-constant limiting shape, which is a function of …

After establishing some new global facts (like a measure theoretic structure theorem and approximation results) about complex-valued functions with bounded variation on arbitrary noncompact Riemannian manifolds, we extend results of Miranda/the second author/Paronetto/Preunkert and of Carbonaro/Mauceri on the heat semi…

New neural method for inferring Markov jump processes.

Enhances RL for jump processes using MSBVE algorithm.

Quantum computer method for pricing lookback options with jumps.

New insights into tail behavior of heavy-tailed random vectors and processes.

This paper examines how the U.S.--China trade war affects stock markets, finding evidence of financial contagion and changes in risk channels.

We propose moment-based variational inference as a flexible framework for approximate smoothing of latent Markov jump processes. The main ingredient of our approach is to partition the set of all transitions of the latent process into classes. This allows to express the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the approxima…

New method for Bayesian inference of Lévy-driven SDEs with jumps.

We prove that the model-free typical (in the sense of Vovk) càdlàg price paths with mildly restricted downward jumps possess quadratic variation which does not depend on the specific sequence of partitions as long as these partitions are obtained from stopping times such that the oscillations of a path on the consecuti…

New algorithms solve stochastic variational inequalities without bounded variance assumption.

New algorithm for continuous-time switching systems using variational inference.

We consider a square-integrable semimartingale and investigate the convex order relations between its discrete, continuous and predictable quadratic variation. As the main results, we show that if the semimartingale has conditionally independent increments and symmetric jump measure, then its discrete realized variance…

Paper solves a complex equation for unbounded convex sets.

We derive asymptotic expansions for option data to detect infinite variation volatility.

New method for handling multi-dimensional singular controls with jump costs in mean-field problems.

New method estimates tempered stable Lévy models with high accuracy.

This paper proposes a new integrated variance estimator based on order statistics within the framework of jump-diffusion models. Its ability to disentangle the integrated variance from the total process quadratic variation is confirmed by both simulated and empirical tests. For practical purposes, we introduce an itera…

Generative models using PDMPs with explicit jump rates and kernels.

The paper prices and replicates various financial contracts on a risky asset with stochastic volatility and jumps.

We prove that the perpetual American put option price of level dependent volatility model with compound Poisson jumps is convex and is the classical solution of its associated quasi-variational inequality, that it is $C^2$ except at the stopping boundary and that it is $C^1$ everywhere (i.e. the smooth pasting conditio…

The present paper introduces a jump-diffusion extension of the classical diffusion default intensity model by means of subordination in the sense of Bochner. We start from the bi-variate process $(X,D)$ of a diffusion state variable $X$ driving default intensity and a default indicator process $D$ and time change it wi…

This paper develops a novel numerical method for pricing American options in a two-asset jump-diffusion model.

This paper completes the two studies undertaken in \cite{aksamit/choulli/deng/jeanblanc2} and \cite{aksamit/choulli/deng/jeanblanc3}, where the authors quantify the impact of a random time on the No-Unbounded-Risk-with-Bounded-Profit concept (called NUPBR hereafter) when the stock price processes are quasi-left-continu…

The implied volatility skew has received relatively little attention in the literature on short-term asymptotics for financial models with jumps, despite its importance in model selection and calibration. We rectify this by providing high-order asymptotic expansions for the at-the-money implied volatility skew, under a…

Unified framework for efficient trans-dimensional Bayesian inference using VI and NFs.

This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the influence of different timescales on volatility forecasts. The decomposition of …

We establish the monotonicity property for the mass of non-pluripolar products on compact Kahler manifolds, and we initiate the study of complex Monge-Ampere type equations with prescribed singularity type. Using the variational method of Berman-Boucksom-Guedj-Zeriahi we prove existence and uniqueness of solutions with…

We study asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators of drift parameters for a jump-type Heston model based on continuous time observations, where the jump process can be any purely non-Gaussian Lévy process of not necessarily bounded variation with a Lévy measure concentrated on $(-1,\infty)$. We prove stro…

We present a non-parametric Bayesian approach to structure learning with hidden causes. Previous Bayesian treatments of this problem define a prior over the number of hidden causes and use algorithms such as reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to move between solutions. In contrast, we assume that the number of hi…

UDN adapts depth to data complexity, outperforming standard neural networks.

We study the leading term in the small-time asymptotics of at-the-money call option prices when the stock price process $S$ follows a general martingale. This is equivalent to studying the first centered absolute moment of $S$. We show that if $S$ has a continuous part, the leading term is of order $\sqrt{T}$ in time $…

Using Vovk's outer measure, which corresponds to a minimal superhedging price, the existence of quadratic variation is shown for "typical price paths" in the space of càdlàg functions possessing a mild restriction on the jumps directed downwards. In particular, this result includes the existence of quadratic variation …

Bayesian inference for Levy density with Gibbs posterior in discrete sampling.

Model explains stock price bubbles through debt crises and financial crashes.

We introduce wavelet-based methodology for estimation of realized variance allowing its measurement in the time-frequency domain. Using smooth wavelets and Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform, we allow for the decomposition of the realized variance into several investment horizons and jumps. Basing our estimator…

Employee stock options (ESOs) are American-style call options that can be terminated early due to employment shock. This paper studies an ESO valuation framework that accounts for job termination risk and jumps in the company stock price. Under general Lévy stock price dynamics, we show that a higher job termination ri…

Develops a new method for pricing GMWBs with jumps and stochastic interest rates.

In the present paper we present a finite element approach for option pricing in the framework of a well-known stochastic volatility model with jumps, the Bates model. In this model the asset log-returns are assumed to follow a jump-diffusion model where the jump component consists of a Levy process of compound Poisson …

We explore a recently proposed Variational Dropout technique that provided an elegant Bayesian interpretation to Gaussian Dropout. We extend Variational Dropout to the case when dropout rates are unbounded, propose a way to reduce the variance of the gradient estimator and report first experimental results with individ…