Proposes a new model to capture joint influence of correlated events on user search behavior.
problem Real-world events influence each other and pose joint influence on user search behavior, not independent.
method Joint Influence Model based on Multivariate Hawkes Process.
result The model captures the temporal dynamics of joint influence and outperforms baseline methods.
Researchers study how teachers' advising relationships influence their perceptions of satisfaction and students, not policy influence.
problem Understanding the relationship between teachers' advising relationships and their perceptions of satisfaction and students.
method Proposed a novel joint model of network and item responses (JNIRM) with correlated latent variables.
result Teachers' advising relationships contribute more to satisfaction and students than to influence over educational policies.
We build a model using Gaussian processes to infer a spatio-temporal vector field from observed agent trajectories. Significant landmarks or influence points in agent surroundings are jointly derived through vector calculus operations that indicate presence of sources and sinks. We evaluate these influence points by us…
Many methods have been proposed for community detection in networks, but most of them do not take into account additional information on the nodes that is often available in practice. In this paper, we propose a new joint community detection criterion that uses both the network edge information and the node features to…
Domain adaptation framework identifies latent variables for target distribution identifiability.
problem Unsupervised domain adaptation without identifiable joint distribution of features and labels.
method Formulated latent variable model with invariant and changing components, constrained domain shift to influence only changing components.
result Joint distribution of data and labels in target domain is identifiable under mild conditions.
The pairwise influence matrix of Dobrushin has long been used as an analytical tool to bound the rate of convergence of Gibbs sampling. In this work, we use Dobrushin influence as the basis of a practical tool to certify and efficiently improve the quality of a discrete Gibbs sampler. Our Dobrushin-optimized Gibbs samp…
The paper prices a new life insurance policy for couples, considering various contingent benefits.
problem Valuation of life insurance policies for dependent coupled lives.
method Employed the QP-rule combining real-world and risk-neutral measures for pricing. result Explicit pricing expressions for the new insurance policy were derived and analyzed.
Customer Satisfaction is the most important factors in the industry irrespective of domain. Key Driver Analysis is a common practice in data science to help the business to evaluate the same. Understanding key features, which influence the outcome or dependent feature, is highly important in statistical model building.…
We apply a wild bootstrap method to the Lancaster three-variable interaction measure in order to detect factorisation of the joint distribution on three variables forming a stationary random process, for which the existing permutation bootstrap method fails. As in the i.i.d. case, the Lancaster test is found to outperf…
The paper proposes a method to construct well-calibrated prediction sets for correlated target variables.
problem Constructing well-calibrated prediction sets for correlated target variables.
method The method uses vine copulas to estimate the joint cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores and improves the asymptotic efficiency of the quantile estimate.
result The method guarantees asymptotically exact coverage and competitive efficiency on real-world regression problems.
A new measure of causal influence quantifies intrinsic contributions in DAGs.
problem Quantifying intrinsic causal contributions in Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs).
method Recursive decomposition of node contributions, structure-preserving interventions, Shapley symmetrization.
result A measure of intrinsic causal contribution that is invariant to node relabeling.
Learning the influence structure of multiple time series data is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies the problem of recovering the causal structure in network of multivariate linear Hawkes processes. In such processes, the occurrence of an event in one process affects the probability of occurrence…
Common complex diseases are likely influenced by the interplay of hundreds, or even thousands, of genetic variants. Converging evidence shows that genetic variants with low marginal effects (LME) play an important role in disease development. Despite their potential significance, discovering LME genetic variants and as…
Causal discovery predicts unobserved joint statistics from observed data.
problem Inferring properties of unobserved joint distributions from observed data.
method Infer causal models from observed data to predict statistical properties of unobserved sets.
result Sparse causal graphs can be more useful than dense ones in predicting unobserved joint distributions.
The paper examines how to make multivariate estimators robust against adversarial data modifications.
problem Adversarial robustness of multivariate M-Estimators. method Adversarial Influence Function (AIF) to measure robustness; optimal modification strategy and AIF characterization; optimal M-estimator design. result Characterization of optimal M-estimator with smallest AIF for joint location and scale estimation. Unified theory for semiparametric data fusion with individual-level data.
problem Handling data fusion problems, especially in settings with diverse data sources and designs.
method Extending a comprehensive theory to handle conditional and marginal distribution alignments, providing universal results for influence functions and efficient influence functions.
result Paves the way for machine-learning debiased, semiparametric efficient estimation.
Jointly learns feature and sample relevancies for robust sparse recovery.
problem Sparse recovery sensitivity to data contaminants like outliers or misspecified noise.
method Jointly learns feature and sample relevancies via marginal likelihood optimization.
result Consistent sparse and robust prediction models across diverse tasks.
The paper addresses causal mediation analysis with post-treatment events, proposing robust estimators and efficient methods.
problem Assessing causal mediation in the presence of post-treatment events like noncompliance or clinical events.
method Identifies natural mediation effects for entire populations and principal strata, derives efficient influence functions, and proposes multiply robust estimators.
result Multiply robust estimators are consistent under four types of misspecifications and efficient when all models are correct.
Paper proposes an algorithm for robust estimation using Huber's criterion.
problem Non-convexity and non-robustness of joint maximum likelihood estimation.
method Block-wise minimization majorization framework with data-adaptive step sizes.
result Improved convergence and robustness in sparse learning.
Person Re-Identification (person re-id) is a crucial task as its applications in visual surveillance and human-computer interaction. In this work, we present a novel joint Spatial and Temporal Attention Pooling Network (ASTPN) for video-based person re-identification, which enables the feature extractor to be aware of …
Classifier chains are popular and effective method to tackle a multi-label classification problem. The aim of this paper is to study the asymptotic properties of the chain model in which the conditional probabilities are of the logistic form. In particular we find conditions on the number of labels and the distribution…
New theory shows alliances neither deter nor provoke aggression.
problem The causal effect of alliances on conflict is unclear due to endogeneity issues.
method Innovative generalized joint regression models to account for endogeneity.
result Alliances neither deter nor provoke aggression.
This paper considers mutual obligations in the interconnected bank system and analyzes their influence on joint and marginal survival probabilities as well as CDS and FTD prices for the individual banks. To make the role of mutual obligations more transparent, a simple structural default model with banks' assets driven…
Combines structured inference and targeted learning to tackle causal inference challenges.
problem Treatment assignment heterogeneity and lack of counterfactual data.
method Factorizes joint distribution into risk, confounding, instrumental, and miscellaneous factors; applies regularizer derived from influence curve.
result TVAE demonstrates competitive and state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets.
Paper tackles noise-robust domain adaptation in noisy environments.
problem Learning machines struggle with domain adaptation in noisy environments.
method The paper proposes offline curriculum learning and proxy distribution based margin discrepancy to mitigate label and feature noise.
result The proposed algorithm significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in noisy environments.
Hölder-Bayes robustly infers model parameters and contamination levels.
problem Robustness to data contamination in Bayesian inference.
method Introduces Hölder-Bayes framework for joint inference of model parameters and contamination proportion using Hölder divergence.
result Hölder-Bayes framework provides robust parameter inference, contamination-level recovery, and uncertainty-aware outlier detection.
New algorithm for combinatorial bandit problems reduces regret.
problem Optimal selection of sets of arms in bandit problems.
method SGB algorithm with optimized exploration of unselected arms.
result Achieves (1−1/e)-regret bound of O(n31k32T32log(T)32). Learning multimodal representations is a fundamentally complex research problem due to the presence of multiple heterogeneous sources of information. Although the presence of multiple modalities provides additional valuable information, there are two key challenges to address when learning from multimodal data: 1) mode…
Improves multi-label classification with a new network model.
problem Improving multi-label classification accuracy.
method Introduces Classifier Chain Network (CCN) for multi-label classification.
result CCN outperforms benchmark methods in simulations and real data.
In this paper we study the problem of exact recovery of the pure-strategy Nash equilibria (PSNE) set of a graphical game from noisy observations of joint actions of the players alone. We consider sparse linear influence games --- a parametric class of graphical games with linear payoffs, and represented by directed gra…
For the sum process X=X1+X2 of a bivariate Lévy process (X1,X2) with possibly dependent components, we derive a quintuple law describing the first upwards passage event of X over a fixed barrier, caused by a jump, by the joint distribution of five quantities: the time relative to the time of the previous maxi…
ProbETA models travel time correlations between trips for better navigation.
problem Trip correlations not captured by existing methods.
method Deep hierarchical joint probabilistic model with learnable link representations.
result ProbETA outperforms state-of-the-art methods with 12.60% MAPE reduction.
New algorithm optimizes complex model selection for non-homogeneous hidden Markov models.
problem Complex combinatorial optimization problem for model selection in NHHMMs.
method Adaptive simulated annealing EM algorithm (ASA-EM).
result Joint optimization of models and parameters for a criterion of interest.
Establishes statistical and computational bounds for influence diagnostics.
problem Identifying influential datapoints or subsets in machine learning models.
method Finite-sample statistical bounds and computational complexity for influence functions and approximate maximum influence perturbations.
result Established statistical and computational guarantees for influence diagnostics.
Function trees simplify complex ML models for better understanding.
problem Understanding and interpreting machine learning model predictions.
method Representing a multivariate function as a tree of simpler functions.
result Function trees reveal the global internal structure of functions.
Network science provides valuable insights across numerous disciplines including sociology, biology, neuroscience and engineering. A task of major practical importance in these application domains is inferring the network structure from noisy observations at a subset of nodes. Available methods for topology inference t…
Galen algorithm compresses neural networks for specific hardware with reduced latency.
problem Finding optimal compression policies for neural networks on specific hardware.
method Reinforcement learning using pruning and quantization to optimize inference latency.
result Compressed ResNet18 for ARM processor reduced inference latency by 80%.
Study reveals which startup valuation factors are most critical.
problem Understanding the complex factors influencing startup valuations.
method Hierarchical prediction models using decision trees and random forests.
result Identifies which factors most significantly impact startup valuations.
Unified framework for automatic debiased machine learning for various statistical parameters.
problem Inference on smooth functionals of nonparametric M-estimands.
method Unified framework using gradient, Hessian, and linear approximation; solves two risk minimization problems.
result Efficient autoDML estimators with double robustness and robustness to misspecification.
Develops a method to audit indirect feature influence in complex models.
problem Auditing indirect feature influence in complex, black-box models.
method Disentangled influence audits using disentangled representations.
result Can detect proxy features and show which ones affect model outcomes most.
We propose a graphical model for representing networks of stochastic processes, the minimal generative model graph. It is based on reduced factorizations of the joint distribution over time. We show that under appropriate conditions, it is unique and consistent with another type of graphical model, the directed informa…
Unified approach for influence maximization using diffusion cascade representations.
problem Influence maximization on networks with diffusion cascades.
method Multi-task neural network learning influencer and susceptible vectors; greedy algorithm for influence maximization.
result IMINFECTOR outperforms other methods in efficiency and seed set quality.
Dynamic Influence Tracker measures changing sample importance during model training.
problem Static influence measurements during training overlook how sample importance varies over time.
method Dynamic Influence Tracker (DIT) captures time-varying sample influence across arbitrary time windows.
result DIT reveals distinct learning phases with shifting priorities and detects corrupted samples more efficiently.
RelatIF selects more intuitive training examples for explaining model predictions.
problem Influence functions identify outliers as explanatory examples, leading to poor explanations.
method RelatIF separates global and local influence, optimizing for local relative to global effects.
result Examples selected by RelatIF are more intuitive than those from influence functions.
Complete criterion for VoI in multi-decision influence diagrams established.
problem Analyzing safety and fairness properties of AI systems using influence diagrams.
method Introduced ID homomorphisms and Tree of Systems to prove properties of multi-decision influence diagrams.
result First complete graphical criterion for VoI in influence diagrams with multiple decisions.
Influence functions are inaccurate in deep learning models, especially for deeper networks.
problem Inaccuracies in influence functions in deep learning models.
method Empirical study of influence functions in neural network models trained on various datasets.
result Influence estimates are often erroneous for deeper networks and require regularization.
Aims to optimize influence spread in social networks using bandit algorithms.
problem Maximizing influence spread in unknown social networks.
method Combines Thompson Sampling and Epsilon Greedy algorithms with automatic ensemble learning.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of automatic ensemble learning for combinatorial bandit problems.
The article explains the probabilistic method of default probability estimation by Pluto and Tasche.
problem Estimating default probabilities for portfolios with low default rates.
method Detailed derivation and explanation of the Pluto-Tasche method, including assumptions and inequalities.
result Clarification of borrower independence, conditional independence, and interaction between probability distributions.