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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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164328492656 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Iterative Prediction

This work provides safety guarantees for iterative GP predictions.

problem Analytical intractability of uncertainty tracking in iterative GP predictions.
method Deriving formal probability error bounds for iterative GP predictions.
result Formal bounds ensure that GP trajectories lie within specified regions with high probability.

This work uses QPGPs to improve ILC performance in repetitive tasks.

problem Performance degradation in repetitive motion tasks due to environmental changes and robot wear.
method Incorporates Quasi-Periodic Gaussian Processes into a predictive ILC framework.
result The proposed approach achieves faster convergence and robustness under disturbances.

Researchers compare different gradient methods for ridge regression, finding conjugate gradients have similar performance.

problem Comparing statistical properties of different gradient methods in ridge regression.
method Explicit non-standard error decomposition to bound prediction error of conjugate gradient iterates.
result Conjugate gradient iterates share optimality properties with gradient flow and ridge regression up to a constant factor.

Self-training in linear models shows a U-shaped test-risk curve due to signal forgetting and denoising.

problem Understanding the dynamics of iterative self-training in high-dimensional linear regression.
method Derivation of deterministic-equivalent recursions for prediction risk and effective noise, analysis of signal forgetting and denoising effects.
result An optimal early-stopping time is determined, and a U-shaped test-risk curve is observed.

New iterative methods improve scalability of Gaussian process approximations for large data.

problem Scalability issues in Gaussian process approximations for large spatial data.
method Iterative methods combined with preconditioners to reduce computational costs.
result Preconditioners accelerate convergence and improve predictive variances.

New method predicts and optimizes matrix recovery from noisy measurements.

problem Recovering rank-1 matrices from Gaussian measurements with noise.
method Stochastic prox-linear iterative algorithm with trajectory predictions.
result The method converges linearly with accurate predictions of error.

Efficiently compress pretrained models using RSI for improved predictive accuracy.

problem Efficiently compressing large pretrained models for practical deployment.
method Randomized subspace iteration (RSI) for low-rank approximation of pretrained models.
result RSI achieves near-optimal approximation quality and outperforms RSVD in predictive accuracy.

The CFR framework has been a powerful tool for solving large-scale extensive-form games in practice. However, the theoretical rate at which past CFR-based algorithms converge to the Nash equilibrium is on the order of O(T1/2)O(T^{-1/2}), where TT is the number of iterations. In contrast, first-order methods can be used to …

2019-02-13abs ↗pdf ↗

XLVINs improve data efficiency in implicit planning by leveraging latent space.

problem Improving data efficiency in implicit planning algorithms.
method XLVINs use a high-dimensional latent space to perform planning computations, breaking the algorithmic bottleneck.
result XLVINs significantly improve data efficiency across various settings compared to value iteration-based implicit planners and model-free baselines.

Develops methods for spectral estimation and rare-event prediction in complex systems.

problem Challenges in understanding dynamics in complex systems with many degrees of freedom.
method Inexact iterative numerical linear algebra methods for spectral estimation and rare-event prediction.
result Demonstrates methods on low-dimensional and high-dimensional models, showing their effectiveness.

New iterative methods improve Vecchia-Laplace approximations for large data sets.

problem Inaccurate and slow Vecchia-Laplace approximations for large data sets.
method Iterative methods to improve Vecchia-Laplace approximations, including preconditioners and novel methods for predictive variances.
result Order of magnitude speed-up and threefold increase in prediction accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Refines neural network predictions using background knowledge for improved accuracy.

problem Compensate for lack of labeled data in neural networks.
method Introduces differentiable refinement functions and Iterative Local Refinement (ILR) algorithm to refine predictions efficiently and accurately.
result ILR finds competitive results in MNIST addition task and refines predictions on complex SAT formulas.

New framework predicts AMP behavior in spiked models for finite iterations.

problem Understanding AMP dynamics in high-dimensional spiked models.
method Developed a non-asymptotic framework for AMP in spiked matrix estimation.
result Predicted AMP behavior for up to O(npolylogn)O\big(\frac{n}{\mathrm{poly}\log n}\big) iterations in Z2\mathbb{Z}_2 synchronization.

C-IP improves LLMs' query selection for interactive tasks by estimating uncertainty robustly.

problem Minimizing the number of queries for interactive LLMs.
method Conformal Information Pursuit (C-IP) using conformal prediction sets.
result C-IP achieves better predictive performance and shorter query-answer chains.

Proposes a method to generate multivariate prediction intervals for random forests.

problem Uncertainty estimates for iterative design of experiments with multiple correlated model outputs.
method Recalibrated bootstrap method for bagged models.
result Significantly decreases the number of iterations required for satisfactory candidate in sequential learning problems.

We introduce structured prediction energy networks (SPENs), a flexible framework for structured prediction. A deep architecture is used to define an energy function of candidate labels, and then predictions are produced by using back-propagation to iteratively optimize the energy with respect to the labels. This deep a…

2015-11-19abs ↗pdf ↗

New recommendations improve Gaussian process accuracy and stability.

problem Numerical instabilities and poor test likelihoods in iterative Gaussian process learning.
method Investigated CG tolerance, preconditioner rank, and Lanczos decomposition rank. Recommended small CG tolerance and large root decomposition size.
result L-BFGS-B optimizer achieves convergence with fewer gradient updates, improving Gaussian process accuracy.

Simplifies neural regression by combining two sub-networks for predictions and uncertainties.

problem Neural networks underestimate uncertainty, leading to overly confident predictions.
method Extends IRLS to a two-sub-network approach with shared representations and complementary loss functions.
result Proposed network is simpler to implement and more robust to uncertainty variations.

We present the use of the fitted Q iteration in algorithmic trading. We show that the fitted Q iteration helps alleviate the dimension problem that the basic Q-learning algorithm faces in application to trading. Furthermore, we introduce a procedure including model fitting and data simulation to enrich training data as…

2018-05-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Most machine translation systems generate text autoregressively from left to right. We, instead, use a masked language modeling objective to train a model to predict any subset of the target words, conditioned on both the input text and a partially masked target translation. This approach allows for efficient iterative…

2019-04-19abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method calibrates value predictions in offline RL to improve reliability.

problem Difficulty in long-horizon value prediction in offline reinforcement learning.
method Bellman calibration, a weak reliability criterion, and Iterated Bellman Calibration.
result Finite-sample guarantees show that Bellman calibration error is controlled at nonparametric rates.

Improves predictive algorithm performance with domain adaptation.

problem Improves performance of predictive algorithms in distributional shift scenarios.
method Domain adaptive bootstrap aggregating with iterative nearest neighbor sampling.
result Proposes a method to improve predictive algorithm performance in distributional shift scenarios.

OptEx accelerates first-order optimization with parallelized iterations.

problem Inefficiencies in first-order optimization algorithms for complex tasks.
method Approximately parallelized iterations using kernelized gradient estimation.
result OptEx achieves substantial efficiency improvements with an effective acceleration rate of Ω(N)Ω(\sqrt{N}).

We introduce the value iteration network (VIN): a fully differentiable neural network with a `planning module' embedded within. VINs can learn to plan, and are suitable for predicting outcomes that involve planning-based reasoning, such as policies for reinforcement learning. Key to our approach is a novel differentiab…

2016-02-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Data application developers and data scientists spend an inordinate amount of time iterating on machine learning (ML) workflows -- by modifying the data pre-processing, model training, and post-processing steps -- via trial-and-error to achieve the desired model performance. Existing work on accelerating machine learni…

2018-08-03abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper we consider a problem of searching a space of predictive models for a given training data set. We propose an iterative procedure for deriving a sequence of improving models and a corresponding sequence of sets of non-linear features on the original input space. After a finite number of iterations N, the n…

2013-12-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Stochastic algo learns from evolving data, achieving optimal performance.

problem Performative prediction and multiplayer extensions.
method Stochastic approximation with decision-dependent distributions.
result Asymptotic normality and optimality of the algorithm's performance.

New framework calibrates models to control risk under performativity.

problem Calibrating models to ensure reliable decision-making under performativity.
method Iteratively refined calibration process for different risk measures and tail bounds.
result Statistically rigorous risk control under performativity demonstrated.

DSVGD improves federated learning with fewer communication rounds.

problem Federated learning scalability and trustworthiness.
method Distributed Stein Variational Gradient Descent (DSVGD) for non-parametric Bayesian inference.
result DSVGD achieves comparable accuracy and scalability to other methods, with well-calibrated predictions.

Paper tackles performative prediction without convexity assumptions.

problem Performative prediction where data distribution changes with model deployment.
method Reparameterization framework to transform non-convex objective into convex one.
result Provably sublinear regret guarantees for learnable model.

We propose a version of least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm for sparse system identification. Our algorithm called online linearized Bregman iteration (OLBI) is derived from minimizing the cumulative prediction error squared along with an l1-l2 norm regularizer. By systematically treating the non-differentiable regulariz…

2012-10-01abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper tackles performative risk optimization under weak convexity assumptions.

problem Optimizing performative risk in a closed-loop prediction system with weak convexity.
method Relaxing convexity assumptions to maintain optimization feasibility.
result Iterative optimization methods remain applicable even with weakened convexity conditions.

IDGL learns better graph structure and embeddings iteratively.

problem Improving graph neural network node embeddings and graph structure.
method Iterative Deep Graph Learning framework that dynamically stops when graph structure optimizes for downstream tasks.
result IDGL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on nine benchmarks.