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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,932 papers · 148 categories

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125251376501 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Introspective Prediction

Proposes a technique to interpret deep learning models by generating counterfactual inputs.

problem Understanding and explaining the decisions made by deep neural networks.
method Uses a generative model to edit input images and generate counterfactual scenarios for model interpretation.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the introspection approach on MNIST and CelebA datasets.

Introspects convolutional speech recognition models using Gradient-adjusted Neuron Activation Profiles.

problem Lack of interpretability in deep learning ASR models.
method Gradient-adjusted Neuron Activation Profiles (GradNAPs) for feature and representation visualization.
result Gains insight into how data is processed in convolutional ASR models.

This paper explores intrinsic rewards to improve learning from multiple value functions.

problem How to adapt reinforcement learning systems to optimize learning from multiple value functions.
method Investigated and compared 14 different intrinsic reward mechanisms in a new bandit-like parallel-learning testbed.
result Intrinsic rewards based on the amount of learning can generate useful behavior, if each individual learner is introspective.

Traditional reinforcement learning agents learn from experience, past or present, gained through interaction with their environment. Our approach synthesizes experience, without requiring an agent to interact with their environment, by asking the policy directly "Are there situations X, Y, and Z, such that in these sit…

2019-02-27abs ↗pdf ↗

This work improves motion planning for quadcopters by learning and reasoning about controller performance.

problem Improving motion planning for quadcopters with safety margins and execution reliability.
method Introspective learning and reasoning to correct execution bias and improve collision checking.
result Substantial reduction in safety margins for motion actions, leading to safer execution.

The increasingly photorealistic sample quality of generative image models suggests their feasibility in applications beyond image generation. We present the Neural Photo Editor, an interface that leverages the power of generative neural networks to make large, semantically coherent changes to existing images. To tackle…

2016-09-22abs ↗pdf ↗

IntroVAC learns interpretable latent subspaces for better image quality.

problem Difficulties in interpreting latent spaces and limitations in image generation.
method Introspective Variational Classifier (IntroVAC) using additional labels and adversarial training.
result Improved image quality and meaningful latent directions for fine-grained manipulation.

The paper proposes a method to calibrate healthcare AI models for reliability and interpretability.

problem Characterizing model reliability and enabling introspection of model behavior in clinical decision making.
method A calibration-driven learning method combined with interpretability techniques based on counterfactual reasoning.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a lesion classification problem with dermoscopy images.

Compact Gaussian model approximates deep ensemble predictions.

problem Efficiently approximating deep ensemble models for image prediction.
method Sparse-structured multivariate Gaussian with Cholesky parameterization trained to match pre-trained ensemble outputs.
result Compact representation captures uncertainty and structured correlations explicitly.

This review synthesizes uncertainty modeling in probabilistic image segmentation.

problem Relaxed Bayesian assumptions lead to missing uncertainty information in deep models.
method Standardizes theory, notation, and terminology for feature- and parameter-distribution modeling.
result Establishes a common framework for robust decision-making in segmentation tasks.

We introduce deep scale-spaces (DSS), a generalization of convolutional neural networks, exploiting the scale symmetry structure of conventional image recognition tasks. Put plainly, the class of an image is invariant to the scale at which it is viewed. We construct scale equivariant cross-correlations based on a princ…

2019-05-28abs ↗pdf ↗

End-to-end training of automated speech recognition (ASR) systems requires massive data and compute resources. We explore transfer learning based on model adaptation as an approach for training ASR models under constrained GPU memory, throughput and training data. We conduct several systematic experiments adapting a Wa…

2017-06-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Active inference selects actions to maximize information gain, aiding structure learning.

problem Learning the structure of underlying world models.
method Active inference selects actions based on expected free energy, which includes information gain and value.
result Actions that maximize information gain help disambiguate among alternative models.

Scaling model capacity has been vital in the success of deep learning. For a typical network, necessary compute resources and training time grow dramatically with model size. Conditional computation is a promising way to increase the number of parameters with a relatively small increase in resources. We propose a train…

2018-11-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Modern vision-based reinforcement learning techniques often use convolutional neural networks (CNN) as universal function approximators to choose which action to take for a given visual input. Until recently, CNNs have been treated like black-box functions, but this mindset is especially dangerous when used for control…

2018-09-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Epidemiology simulations have become a fundamental tool in the fight against the epidemics of various infectious diseases like AIDS and malaria. However, the complicated and stochastic nature of these simulators can mean their output is difficult to interpret, which reduces their usefulness to policymakers. In this pap…

2019-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Explains agent behavior through intended outcomes in reinforcement learning.

problem Proving impossibility of general post-hoc explanations in reinforcement learning.
method Derives local explanations based on intention for Q-function approximations, proving consistency with learned Q-values.
result Demonstrates the necessity of collecting information during training for accurate explanations.

Semantic Embeddings are a popular way to represent knowledge in the field of zero-shot learning. We observe their interpretability and discuss their potential utility in a safety-critical context. Concretely, we propose to use them to add introspection and error detection capabilities to neural network classifiers. Fir…

2019-05-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Humans are able to explain their reasoning. On the contrary, deep neural networks are not. This paper attempts to bridge this gap by introducing a new way to design interpretable neural networks for classification, inspired by physiological evidence of the human visual system's inner-workings. This paper proposes a neu…

2017-10-26abs ↗pdf ↗

SoftAdapt dynamically adjusts loss weights for multi-part functions.

problem Slow convergence and poor weight selection for multi-part loss functions.
method SoftAdapt dynamically changes weights based on live performance statistics.
result Improved convergence and better weight selection for multi-part loss functions.

The main idea of this paper is to explore the possibilities of generating samples from the neural networks, mostly focusing on the colorization of the grey-scale images. I will compare the existing methods for colorization and explore the possibilities of using new generative modeling to the task of colorization. The c…

2018-12-27abs ↗pdf ↗

RE enhances DL by learning model behavior, enabling iterative self-improvement.

problem Static data representations limit DL's potential for evolving models.
method RE uses multiple mappings of data through identical deep architectures, analyzing internal representations and performance signals.
result Models can gain insight from predecessors, leading to iterative self-improvement.

The paper proposes a method to explain expert decisions by modeling preferences with 'what if' outcomes.

problem Interpreting and auditing decision-making policies in institutions.
method Integrating counterfactual reasoning into batch inverse reinforcement learning.
result The method effectively recovers accurate and interpretable descriptions of expert behavior.

Painless Activation Steering automates post-training for LMs without manual intervention.

problem Manual post-training methods are time-consuming and labor-intensive.
method Painless Activation Steering (PAS) is a fully automated approach that requires no manual intervention.
result PAS reliably improves performance for behavior tasks but not for intelligence-oriented tasks.

Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.

problem Binary prediction sets are limited; fuzzy prediction sets offer richer guarantees.
method Generalize prediction sets to fuzzy sets, showing they are e-values with merging properties.
result Optimal e-values lead to optimal fuzzy prediction sets, including optimal conformal prediction.

Paper defines predictive multiplicity and measures its severity in classification problems.

problem Challenges in machine learning due to competing models with conflicting predictions.
method Formal measures and integer programming tools for linear classification problems.
result Real-world datasets may admit competing models with wildly conflicting predictions.

This paper re-examines conformal e-prediction and its advantages over conformal prediction.

problem The relationship between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction.
method Systematic re-examination of conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction from a modern perspective.
result Conformal e-prediction has advantages such as ease of designing conditional predictors and guaranteed validity of cross-predictors.

Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.

problem Improving the reliability and uncertainty quantification of machine learning predictions.
method Combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction for binary and regression problems.
result Improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers practical alternatives.

Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.

problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.

The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.

problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.

Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.

problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.