Study predicts intraday stock trading volume using ML models.
problem Predicting intraday trading volumes in equity markets.
method Used machine learning models with HF predictors.
result Intraday stock trading volume is highly predictable.
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48 results for “Intraday Trading”
Intraday trading strategy based on time series and machine learning for Chinese stock marketq-fin.TR
Article proposes a profitable intraday trading strategy for Chinese stocks.
problem Intraday trading opportunities in Chinese stock market.
method Markowitz optimization and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for stock price prediction.
result Validation of Markowitz portfolio optimization and MLP for intraday stock price prediction.
Optimizes intraday electricity trading to minimize costs.
problem Minimizing costs in intraday electricity trading.
method Derives an optimal model considering order book depth, time to delivery, and trading regimes.
result Optimal execution strategies have a significant monetary impact.
DeepScalper uses RL to capture intraday trading opportunities, balancing risk and profit.
problem Capturing fleeting intraday trading opportunities in high-frequency markets.
method Dueling Q-network, reward function with hindsight bonus, encoder-decoder architecture, risk-aware auxiliary task.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in financial criteria.
This paper presents a continuous-time model of intraday trading, pricing, and liquidity with dynamic TWAP and VWAP benchmarks. The model is solved in closed-form for the competitive equilibrium and also for non-price-taking equilibria. The intraday trajectories of TWAP trading targets cause predictable intraday pattern…
Optimal energy trading strategy for intraday markets using Hawkes processes.
problem Optimal execution in intraday energy markets with specific trading patterns.
method Calibrated Hawkes process model with transient price impact.
result Substantial cost reductions in TWAP and VWAP benchmarks.
A new DRL model for intraday trading incorporating positional context.
problem Neglecting positional context in existing DRL intraday trading strategies.
method Introducing positional features into the state space of a DRL model.
result Significant improvement in profitability and risk-adjusted metrics.
Study high-frequency trading patterns in cryptocurrencies.
problem Understanding automated trading algorithms in cryptocurrency markets.
method Analyzes intraday trading data of cryptocurrencies, focusing on returns, volumes, and volatility.
result Provides insights into predictability of economic value in cryptocurrency markets.
Decision trees improve intraday trading strategies for NIFTY50 stocks.
problem Creating optimal trading rules for individual stocks.
method Using decision trees to generate unique trading rules for each stock based on technical indicators.
result Decision tree strategies outperform simple buy-and-hold for many stocks.
Generative model improves intraday electricity price forecasting.
problem Intraday electricity price forecasting for improved trading strategies.
method Generative neural network model for probabilistic path forecasts.
result Generative model leads to higher profit gains than benchmark methods.
Copulas model cross-product effects in intraday power markets.
problem Intraday power markets' cross-product effects are not adequately addressed by existing univariate approaches.
method Copulas and latent beta regression for modeling high-dimensional intraday price return vector, with time-varying dependence parameter.
result Modeling cross-product effects improves forecasting performance.
Forecasting directional movements of stock prices for intraday trading using LSTM and random forestscs.LG
The study uses LSTM and random forests to forecast stock price movements for intraday trading.
problem Forecasting directional movements of stock prices for intraday trading.
method Employed random forests and LSTM networks to analyze S&P 500 constituent stocks.
result Multi-feature setting provided higher daily returns (0.64% using LSTM, 0.54% using random forests) compared to single-feature setting.
High-frequency trading strategy boosts battery storage profits.
problem Maximizing revenue for battery energy storage systems in intraday markets.
method Adapted dynamic programming for continuous intraday markets, considering limit order book dynamics.
result Dynamic programming strategy outperforms standard re-optimization methods, increasing profits by 58% and 14% respectively.
We consider the problem of optimal trading for a power producer in the context of intraday electricity markets. The aim is to minimize the imbalance cost induced by the random residual demand in electricity, i.e. the consumption from the clients minus the production from renewable energy. For a simple linear price impa…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of absolute return, trading volume and bid-ask spread after the trading halts using high-frequency data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We deal with all three types of trading halts, namely intraday halts, one-day halts and inter-day halts, of 203 stocks in Shanghai Stock Exchange…
The paper analyzes profitable bidding strategies for BESS in day-ahead and intraday markets.
problem Optimizing profitability of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) in day-ahead and intraday markets.
method Employing the rolling intrinsic approach to model continuous intraday markets, accounting for bid-ask spreads and liquidity constraints.
result Multi-market bidding strategies outperform single-market participation, and relaxing daily cycling constraints can unlock additional value.
The paper validates a classifier for identifying intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.
problem Developing reliable trading signals from intraday regime shifts in MNQ futures.
method Constructed a composite day-classification system using three observable conditions.
result Classifier-positive days exhibit distinct intraday behavior but fail to generate profitable trading signals.
They Still Haven't Told Youq-fin.GN
Quant firms manipulate stock markets overnight and intraday.
problem Unexplained consistent overnight and intraday returns in stock markets.
method Analysis of trading patterns and market movements.
result Large quant firms expand and contract portfolios to create mark-to-market gains.
Optimal trading strategies identified in electricity markets with a major player.
problem Price formation and optimal trading in intraday electricity markets with strategic interactions.
method Stochastic control theory and mean field games with a major player.
result Nash equilibrium identified in closed form for the asymptotic case.
The study forecasts hourly intraday electricity prices using ensemble methods.
problem Weak-form efficiency of hourly German Intraday Continuous Market prices.
method Probabilistic forecasting with ensemble trajectories, generalized additive model, and lasso penalty.
result The mixture model outperforms benchmarks in forecasting price distribution and volatility.
Simulating and analyzing a sparse order book: an application to intraday electricity marketsq-fin.TR
Model simulates sparse order books in illiquid markets.
problem Inaccurate LOB models in illiquid markets.
method Inhomogeneous Poisson process for order arrivals and cancellations.
result Enhanced understanding of LOB dynamics in illiquid markets.
Data-Driven Stochastic Optimal Control for Intraday Electricity Trading by Renewable Producersq-fin.MF
Develops a new trading strategy for renewable producers to manage price volatility.
problem Price volatility and imbalance risk in power markets due to renewable generation.
method Data-driven continuous-time stochastic optimal control framework using SDEs and diffusion models.
result Trading strategy outperforms benchmarks and reduces profit and loss.
Improved stock volume prediction using Kalman Filters with various hidden states.
problem Improving accuracy of intraday trading volume prediction.
method Extended Kalman Filter with various hidden states for different stocks, using cross-validation to determine optimal state number.
result Demonstrated improved accuracy through comparison experiments and numerical analysis.
We study the intraday behaviour of the statistical moments of the trading volume of the blue chip equities that composed the Dow Jones Industrial Average index between 2003 and 2014. By splitting that time interval into semesters, we provide a quantitative account of the non-stationary nature of the intraday statistica…
We use an adversarial expert based online learning algorithm to learn the optimal parameters required to maximise wealth trading zero-cost portfolio strategies. The learning algorithm is used to determine the relative population dynamics of technical trading strategies that can survive historical back-testing as well a…
Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, o…
A HMM for intraday momentum trading reduces lagging and incorporates side information.
problem Time-lagging in existing momentum trading models leads to incorrect momentum signals.
method State space formulation with latent momentum states, cross-validation for state estimation, and Bayesian inference for prediction.
result The model reduces lagging and accurately predicts market changes.
Structural Limits of OHLCV-Based Intraday Signals in MNQ Futures: A Systematic Falsification Studyq-fin.TR
Study finds no statistically significant trading edge in MNQ futures signals from OHLCV data.
problem Testing intraday momentum signals from OHLCV data in MNQ futures under realistic execution constraints.
method 947 trading days of five-minute data, 14 signal families evaluated, strict institutional criteria applied.
result No signal satisfies all criteria simultaneously, gross edge insufficient to overcome costs.
Study shows how macroeconomic news affects intraday price and order flow dynamics.
problem Understanding how macroeconomic news impacts intraday price and order flow dynamics.
method Structural VAR model identified through heteroskedasticity, estimated at one-second frequency for each 15-minute interval.
result Macroeconomic news announcements reshape price-flow dynamics, with significant impacts on price and flow impacts at the one-second horizon.
Model equilibrium price in intraday electricity markets with uncertainty.
problem Formulate equilibrium model for intraday electricity trading with balancing constraints and uncertainty.
method Develop equilibrium model with agents' balancing constraints, forecasted consumption, production uncertainties, and Markov chain outages.
result Existence and uniqueness of equilibrium price as a martingale, with insights into price formation and impact of uncertainty.
Robinhood users react strongly to overnight price changes and big losers, trading quickly after extreme losses.
problem Understanding trading behavior of Robinhood users, especially in high-frequency trading scenarios.
method Analyzed intraday and overnight price changes, focusing on big losers and gainers.
result Robinhood users react more to overnight price changes and big losers, trading quickly after extreme losses.
Both in practice and in the academic literature, models for setting margin requirements in futures markets classically use daily closing price changes. However, as well documented by research on high-frequency data, financial markets have recently shown high intraday volatility, which could bring more risk than expecte…
Stock prices are known to exhibit non-Gaussian dynamics, and there is much interest in understanding the origin of this behavior. Here, we present a model that explains the shape and scaling of the distribution of intraday stock price fluctuations (called intraday returns) and verify the model using a large database fo…
A framework uses deep reinforcement learning to optimize energy storage in intraday markets.
problem Optimizing energy storage in intraday markets for renewable energy integration.
method Markov Decision Process, asynchronous distributed fitted Q iteration algorithm, artificial trajectories.
result The agent converges to a policy that achieves higher total revenues than the benchmark strategy.
We propose a multivariate elastic net regression forecast model for German quarter-hourly electricity spot markets. While the literature is diverse on day-ahead prediction approaches, both the intraday continuous and intraday call-auction prices have not been studied intensively with a clear focus on predictive power. …
The article presents a new entropy model for assessing stock market interest.
problem Assessing investor interest and market sentiment in exchange-traded securities.
method Intrinsic entropy model using actual trading data, without exogenous factors.
result Empirical evidence supports the model's ability to predict trading activity.
Paper optimizes battery storage in multiple energy markets for better profits.
problem Optimizing battery storage participation in multiple energy markets to balance supply and demand.
method Developed a joint bidding strategy combining intraday and frequency markets using mixed integer linear programming and a learned classifier strategy.
result The LCS increases overall profits by over 4% compared to static strategies and by more than 3% over a naive dynamic benchmark.
Proposes a new model for simulating electricity prices and their correlation structure.
problem Simulating and understanding the complex dynamics of intraday electricity prices.
method Develops a multidimensional statistical model based on Poisson measures, estimating three key parameters.
result Demonstrates the model's effectiveness in battery valuation through dynamic programming.
We propose the application of a high-speed maximum likelihood clustering algorithm to detect temporal financial market states, using correlation matrices estimated from intraday market microstructure features. We first determine the ex-ante intraday temporal cluster configurations to identify market states, and then st…
Paper uses Transformers to predict intraday volume ratio with high accuracy.
problem Accurate prediction of intraday volume ratio for VWAP strategies.
method Transformer architecture with log-normal transformation and external features.
result Probabilistic forecasting captures mean and standard deviation of volume ratios.
Paper optimizes internal balancing of wind and hydropower to reduce intraday market volatility.
problem Reduction of intraday market volatility for power producers with wind and hydropower assets.
method Internal balancing within the same river system and sales/purchase in a pay-as-bid intraday market.
result Reduction in short-term marginal cost and risk through internal balancing.
Modeling price formation in intraday electricity markets with renewable generation.
problem Price formation and optimal trading strategies in intraday electricity markets with intermittent renewable generation.
method Developed a tractable equilibrium model using stochastic control theory to identify optimal strategies and exhibit Nash equilibrium.
result Identified optimal trading strategies and exhibited Nash equilibrium in closed form for a finite number of agents and in the asymptotic framework of mean field games.
The intraday pattern, long memory, and multifractal nature of the intertrade durations, which are defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, are investigated based upon the limit order book data and order flows of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. An inverse…
Multifractal analysis and extensive statistical tests are performed upon intraday minutely data within individual trading days for four stock market indexes (including HSI, SZSC, S&P500, and NASDAQ) to check whether the indexes (instead of the returns) possess multifractality. We find that the mass exponent is l…
A new model captures irregularly spaced high-frequency prices and their volatility.
problem Modeling high-frequency prices with irregular spacing and market noise.
method Observation-driven model using Skellam distribution with time-varying volatility and smoothing splines.
result The model provides a good fit to IBM stock data and measures daily realized volatility.
A new method forecasts hourly electricity prices considering product dynamics and limit order book signals.
problem High volatility and imbalance in power systems due to renewable energy and flexible demand.
method Incorporates short-term features from hourly and quarter-hourly products, including limit order book and neighboring product signals.
result Features from the limit order book are most influential, and neighboring product signals improve forecast accuracy.
The paper shows how overreactions in stock prices can be predicted and used for trading.
problem Predicting and monetizing overreactions in stock prices as momentum signals.
method High-frequency data from Twitter, machine learning models (XGBoost, Random Forests, Deep Neural Networks, Bidirectional LSTMs), and SHAP for explainability.
result Machine learning models significantly outperform traditional overreaction rules at ultra short horizons.
Study shows investor sentiment boosts intraday trading in Chinese markets.
problem Impact of investor sentiment on intraday overtrading in Chinese A-share markets.
method High-frequency sentiment indices from social media analyzed for intraday overtrading in CSI 300 and CSI 500 constituents.
result Investor sentiment significantly increases intraday overtrading, especially among institutional investors.