arXiv research

Study the Mexican stock market's interdependency structure from 2000-2019.

New measure shows how LSTM models compose hierarchical representations.

RPN 2 improves function learning by modeling data interdependence.

Model shows how financial contagion spreads through complex interdependencies.

This paper develops a federated approach to learn Granger causality in interdependent industrial clients.

Study maps interdependence of SDGs, finds complex, dynamic linkages.

Federated learning interprets temporal dynamics across clients with graph attention.

Paper tackles RCA in complex networks with unknown interdependencies.

We present a new approach to estimating the interdependence of industries in an economy by applying data science solutions. By exploiting interfirm buyer--seller network data, we show that the problem of estimating the interdependence of industries is similar to the problem of uncovering the latent block structure in n…

This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies between the components of the sparse signal of interest. A hierarchical Gaussian p…

CAUSE learns Granger causality from event sequences, outperforming existing methods.

Cross-border equity and long-term debt securities portfolio investment networks are analysed from 2002 to 2012, covering the 2008 global financial crisis. They serve as network-proxies for measuring the robustness of the global financial system and the interdependence of financial markets, respectively. Two early-warni…

To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures to extract direct influences between multiple time series, we compute the infor…

CDA framework infers channel influence from aggregated data without user identifiers.

We generalize the scale-free network model of Barabàsi and Albert [Science 286, 509 (1999)] by proposing a class of stochastic models for scale-free interdependent networks in which interdependent nodes are not randomly connected but rather are connected via preferential attachment (PA). Each network grows through the …

In the current era of worldwide stock market interdependencies, the global financial village has become increasingly vulnerable to systemic collapse. The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the necessity of understanding and quantifying interdependencies among the world's economies, developing new effective …

Extends Bayesian theory to handle complex interdependencies in multidimensional event spaces.

This study maps systemic risks in TradFi and DeFi, highlighting their interdependence.

The large-scale organization of the world economies is exhibiting increasingly levels of local heterogeneity and global interdependency. Understanding the relation between local and global features calls for analytical tools able to uncover the global emerging organization of the international trade network. Here we an…

A new random forest algorithm uncovers feature interdependencies better than traditional methods.

This paper is concerned with structured machine learning, in a supervised machine learning context. It discusses how to make joint structured learning on interdependent objects of different nature, as well as how to enforce logical con-straints when predicting labels. We explain how this need arose in a Document Unders…

Graph Posterior Network improves uncertainty estimation for node classification in interdependent graphs.

We propose a dynamic model of dependence structure between financial institutions within a financial system and we construct measures for dependence and financial instability. Employing Markov structures of joint credit migrations, our model allows for contagious simultaneous jumps in credit ratings and provides flexib…

Economic interdependencies have become increasingly present in globalized production, financial and trade systems. While establishing interdependencies among economic agents is crucial for the production of complex products, they may also increase systemic risks due to failure propagation. It is crucial to identify how…

Recent results in Reinforcement Learning (RL) have shown that agents with limited training environments are susceptible to a large amount of overfitting across many domains. A key challenge for RL generalization is to quantitatively explain the effects of changing parameters on testing performance. Such parameters incl…

This paper uses Factored Latent Analysis (FLA) to learn a factorized, segmental representation for observations of tracked objects over time. Factored Latent Analysis is latent class analysis in which the observation space is subdivided and each aspect of the original space is represented by a separate latent class mod…

Stock price movement reveals complex interdependencies that are simplified through linear correlation.

For many structured learning tasks, the data annotation process is complex and costly. Existing annotation schemes usually aim at acquiring completely annotated structures, under the common perception that partial structures are of low quality and could hurt the learning process. This paper questions this common percep…

Federated framework learns causal states to predict counterfactuals without centralizing data.

We apply the recently developed reduced Google matrix algorithm for the analysis of the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities. This approach allows to determine interdependences and interactions of economy sectors of several countries, including China, Russia and USA, properly taking into account the influence …

In this paper, we propose a new framework to study the generalization property of classifier chains trained over observations associated with multiple and interdependent class labels. The results are based on large deviation inequalities for Lipschitz functions of weakly dependent sequences proposed by Rio in 2000. We …

This work uses PAC-Bayes for structured prediction with ILE, yielding insights and algorithms.

New approach for causal inference with interdependent, time-varying latent confounders.

The economical world consists of a highly interconnected and interdependent network of firms. Here we develop temporal and structural network tools to analyze the state of the economy. Our analysis indicates that a strong clustering can be a warning sign. Reduction in diversity, which was an essential aspect of the dyn…

Through a long-period analysis of the inter-temporal relations between the French markets for credit default swaps (CDS), shares and bonds between 2001 and 2008, this article shows how a financial innovation like CDS could heighten financial instability. After describing the operating principles of credit derivatives i…

Let $X_{λ_1},\ldots,X_{λ_n}$ be dependent non-negative random variables and $Y_i=I_{p_i} X_{λ_i}$, $i=1,\ldots,n$, where $I_{p_1},\ldots,I_{p_n}$ are independent Bernoulli random variables independent of $X_{λ_i}$'s, with ${\rm E}[I_{p_i}]=p_i$, $i=1,\ldots,n$. In actuarial sciences, $Y_i$ corresponds to the claim amo…

Study uses detrended cross-correlation to analyze cryptocurrency market, revealing robust collective modes and distinguishing interdependencies.

We introduce an analogue of the theory of length spaces into the setting of Lorentzian geometry and causality theory. The rôle of the metric is taken over by the time separation function, in terms of which all basic notions are formulated. In this way we recover many fundamental results in greater generality, while at …

An empirical study of joint bivariate probability distribution of two consecutive price increments for a set of stocks at time scales ranging from one minute to thirty minutes reveals asymmetric structures with respect to the axes y=0, y=x, x=0 and y=-x. All four asymmetry patterns remarkably resemble a four-blade mill…

Simultaneously estimates travel times and route choice model parameters.

Develops methods for structured variational inference with star-structured models.

A new convolutional spectral kernel network learns hierarchical and local features.

The paper analyzes the crash of stock and commodity markets during COVID-19 using Topological Data Analysis.

We introduce a general model for the balance-sheet consistent valuation of interbank claims within an interconnected financial system. Our model represents an extension of clearing models of interdependent liabilities to account for the presence of uncertainty on banks' external assets. At the same time, it also provid…

New approach protects privacy of deleted records in machine learning.

Following Goussarov's paper `Interdependent Modifications of Links and Invariants of Finite Degree' [Topology 37 (1998) 595--602] we describe an alternative finite type theory of knots. While (as shown by Goussarov) the alternative theory turns out to be equivalent to the standard one, it nevertheless has its own share…

This paper presents a novel decentralized high-dimensional Bayesian optimization (DEC-HBO) algorithm that, in contrast to existing HBO algorithms, can exploit the interdependent effects of various input components on the output of the unknown objective function f for boosting the BO performance and still preserve scala…

Empirical study finds IT project costs follow a power-law distribution, exposing risk underestimation.