Study resolves the Korean LVRP puzzle by showing HVRP exists but is masked by investor heterogeneity and improper intensity normalization.
problem Puzzling Low Volume Return Premium (LVRP) in Korea, contradicting global High Volume Return Premium (HVRP) evidence.
method Used Korean market data (2020-2024) to demonstrate HVRP exists but is masked by investor heterogeneity and improper intensity normalization. Normalized institutional buying intensity by market capitalization rather than trading value.
result Demonstrated a perfect monotonic relationship between highest-conviction institutional buying and positive cumulative abnormal returns, while lowest-intensity trades yield modest returns.
Proof-of-Stake networks with EIP-1559 exhibit stable token prices and secure network security.
problem Token valuation and institutional capital in Proof-of-Stake networks under EIP-1559
method Open-economy macroeconomic equilibrium model
result Stable steady-state equilibrium price for ETH
We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases with a permanent price impact. The volatility, the volume of different types of orders, the b…
Modern financial networks exhibit a high degree of interconnectedness and determining the causes of instability and contagion in financial networks is necessary to inform policy and avoid future financial collapse. In the American Economic Review, Elliott, Golub and Jackson proposed a simple model for capturing the dyn…
This study examines the execution phase of corporate share buy-backs, highlighting inefficiencies and costs.
problem Lack of research on share buy-back execution practices and associated costs.
method Comparative analysis of execution practices and fees charged to corporations and investors.
result Uncovered inefficiencies and frictional costs in share buy-back executions, advocating for transparency and fairness.
Study reveals investor heterogeneity in Korean equity market cash flows.
problem Investor heterogeneity and its impact on market dynamics.
method Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) on aggregated cash flows.
result Persistence in cash flows varies by investor type, with retail flows showing strong persistence.
Recent studies using data on social media and stock markets have mainly focused on predicting stock returns. Instead of predicting stock price movements, we examine the relation between Facebook data and investors' decision making in stock markets with a unique data on investors' transactions on Nokia. We find that the…
This paper examines the optimal annuitization, investment and consumption strategies of a utility-maximizing retiree facing a stochastic time of death under a variety of institutional restrictions. We focus on the impact of aging on the optimal purchase of life annuities which form the basis of most Defined Benefit pen…
We study the cross-correlation matrix Cij of inventory variations of the most active individual and institutional investors in an emerging market to understand the dynamics of inventory variations. We find that the distribution of cross-correlation coefficient Cij has a power-law form in the bulk followed by …
This paper uses RL to optimize bid-ask spreads for illiquid corporate bonds.
problem Optimizing bid-ask spreads for illiquid corporate bonds.
method Data-driven approach using Reinforcement Learning.
result Trained RL agent's behavior shows reasonable optimal bid-ask spreads.
The paper uses RFM and clustering to segment bank customers.
problem Challenges in customer retention and profitable segmentation in banking.
method RFM technique and clustering algorithms applied to real data.
result Successful customer segmentation improves conversion rates.
This paper proposes a new portfolio allocation method using LLMs to outperform traditional strategies.
problem Persistent tradeoff between risk and return in portfolio management.
method Follow-the-leader approach with sentiment-based trade filtering and LLM-driven hedging.
result Empirical results show a 69% increase in annualized returns and 119% in Sharpe ratio compared to SPY buy-and-hold.
This paper provides a general framework for modeling financial contagion in a system with obligations in multiple illiquid assets (e.g., currencies). In so doing, we develop a multi-layered financial network that extends the single network of Eisenberg and Noe (2001). In particular, we develop a financial contagion mod…
We model the behavior of three agent classes acting dynamically in a limit order book of a financial asset. Namely, we consider market makers (MM), high-frequency trading (HFT) firms, and institutional brokers (IB). Given a prior dynamic of the order book, similar to the one considered in the Queue-Reactive models [14,…
The study analyzes trading imbalances from SEC Form 13F-HR filings to identify profitable trading opportunities.
problem Identifying profitable trading opportunities based on SEC Form 13F-HR filings.
method Statistical analysis of holdings variations and imbalances between consecutive reporting periods.
result A profitable trading strategy can be implemented by betting against the sign of imbalances with a 1-2 month time horizon.
The asymmetric price impact between the institutional purchases and sales of 32 liquid stocks in Chinese stock markets in year 2003 is carefully studied. We analyze the price impact in both drawup and drawdown trends with consecutive positive and negative daily price changes, and test the dependence of the price impact…
Study shows foreign institutional investment increases liquidity commonality in large Australian stocks.
problem Impact of foreign institutional investment on liquidity commonality in Australian stocks.
method Cross-sectional and time-series analysis of Australian equity market data.
result Foreign institutional investment contributes to increased exposure of large stocks to unexpected liquidity events.
Paper discusses how financial institutions' model risk management can benefit academic research.
problem Improving academic research process and mitigating limitations.
method Adopting financial institutions' model risk management practices.
result Lessons from financial institutions can enhance academic research reliability.
We show that when the price process S represents a fully incomplete market, the optimal super-replication of any Markovian claim g(ST) with g(⋅) being nonnegative and lower semicontinuous is of buy-and-hold type. Since both (unbounded) stochastic volatility models and rough volatility models are examples of …
Paper fine-tunes a language model to predict long-term stock buy signals.
problem Predicting long-term stock price movements with narrative text.
method Fine-tuning a small language model on 10-K reports for buy/sell decisions.
result Buy signals generated from 10-K text are most precise at 6 and 9 months, providing 4.8-9% improvement over random selection.
The standard theory of coherent risk measures fails to consider individual institutions as part of a system which might itself experience instability and spread new sources of risk to the market participants. In compliance with an approach adopted by Shapley and Shubik (1969), this paper proposes a cooperative market g…
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) offer new opportunities to identify genetic risk factors for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Recently, collaborative efforts across different institutions emerged that enhance the power of many existing techniques on individual institution data. However, a major barrier to collaborative…
Codebook for Institutional Grammar 2.0 simplifies policy encoding.
problem Facilitating consistent policy encoding for diverse analytical needs.
method Revised Institutional Grammar with multiple levels of expressiveness.
result Enhanced flexibility and specificity in policy encoding.
Develops a machine-learning framework for optimal share repurchase hedging.
problem Challenges in hedging share repurchase programs due to market regulations and trading activity.
method Machine-learning framework that optimizes execution and hedging of share repurchase programs.
result Substantial performance improvements and an optimized hedging approach.
Financial crime is a large and growing problem, in some way touching almost every financial institution. Financial institutions are the front line in the war against financial crime and accordingly, must devote substantial human and technology resources to this effort. Current processes to detect financial misconduct h…
Stock trading based on Kelly's celebrated Expected Logarithmic Growth (ELG) criterion, a well-known prescription for optimal resource allocation, has received considerable attention in the literature. Using ELG as the performance metric, we compare the impact of trade execution delay on the relative performance of high…
In this article, we consider the optimal execution problem associated to accelerated share repurchase contracts. When firms want to repurchase their own shares, they often enter such a contract with a bank. The bank buys the shares for the firm and is paid the average market price over the execution period, the length …
Activists align with large fund preferences for success.
problem Aligning with large fund preferences increases activist success.
method Analyzed previous proxy voting behavior to estimate preferences and correlated them with activist success.
result Campaigns with higher alignment receive more votes and are more successful.
HyFi cryptocurrencies backed by institutions show lower price risk than fully decentralized ones.
problem High volatility in decentralized finance (DeFi) cryptocurrencies.
method Panel EGLS models with fixed, random, and dynamic specifications using daily data for 18 major cryptocurrencies.
result HyFi-like assets exhibit lower price risk, especially during market stress.
This paper uses MIS to identify key financial institutions with minimal risk contagion.
problem Mitigating systemic risk during extreme financial events.
method Applying extreme value theory and MIS from graph theory to identify diversified portfolios.
result Identified a subset of institutions with minimal extremal dependence for diversified portfolios.
This paper analyzes correlations in patterns of trading of different members of the London Stock Exchange. The collection of strategies associated with a member institution is defined by the sequence of signs of net volume traded by that institution in hour intervals. Using several methods we show that there are signif…
Reflective of income and wealth distributions, philanthropic gifting appears to follow an approximate power-law size distribution as measured by the size of gifts received by individual institutions. We explore the ecology of gifting by analysing data sets of individual gifts for a diverse group of institutions dedicat…
Investor-driven information diffusion affects excess comovement in China and the U.S. markets.
problem Investor-driven information diffusion and its impact on excess comovement.
method Cross-sectional analysis of 4,533 Chinese and 4,517 U.S. stocks from 2010 to 2022.
result Retail-driven information diffusion significantly drives excess comovement in China, while institution-driven diffusion is the primary driver in the U.S.
Study examines how institutional differences and crises affect volatility in ASEAN stock markets.
problem Understanding how institutional differences and crises impact volatility in emerging Asian stock markets.
method By-window EGARCH/TGARCH analysis of daily stock index returns for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines from 2010 to 2024.
result All three markets show strong volatility persistence and fat-tailed returns; crises increase persistence and asymmetry, while tail thickness rises.
This paper investigates the investment behaviour of a large unregulated financial institution (FI) with CARA risk preferences. It shows how the FI optimizes its trading to account for market illiquidity using an extension of the Almgren-Chriss market impact model of multiple risky assets. This expected utility optimiza…
The average portfolio structure of institutional investors is shown to have properties which account for transaction costs in an optimal way. This implies that financial institutions unknowingly display collective rationality, or Wisdom of the Crowd. Individual deviations from the rational benchmark are ample, which il…
An article based on a four-lecture introductory minicourse on minimal surface theory given at the 2013 summer program of the Institute for Advanced Study and the Park City Mathematics Institute.
Optimal buying and selling times for homes in fluctuating interest rates.
problem Maximizing profit from buying and selling homes in a market with variable interest rates.
method Nested optimal stopping problem solved using a nonnegative concave majorant approach.
result Investor's optimal buying and selling strategies derived for CIR interest rates.
Financial institutions use LSTM models to predict customer goals.
problem Predicting customer goals and actions in financial services.
method Used LSTM models with state-space graph embeddings on historical customer traces.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of LSTM models in predicting customer goals and actions.
This paper shows a buy-and-hold strategy is asymptotically log-optimal for a market with a dominant asset.
problem Finding a safe and optimal investment strategy in a market with a dominant asset.
method Investment strategy based on the dominant asset and buy-and-hold approach.
result Buy-and-hold strategy on the dominant asset is asymptotically log-optimal with a sublinear rate of convergence.
Counterparty risk denotes the risk that a party defaults in a bilateral contract. This risk not only depends on the two parties involved, but also on the risk from various other contracts each of these parties holds. In rather informal markets, such as the OTC (over-the-counter) derivative market, institutions only rep…
Study shows institutional investments significantly impact cryptocurrency market evolution.
problem Limited understanding of institutional investments' role in cryptocurrency market evolution.
method Quantitative analysis of 1324 cryptocurrencies' investments from 2014-2022.
result Institutional investments correlate with cryptocurrency market capitalization.
A speculative agent with Prospect Theory preference chooses the optimal time to purchase and then to sell an indivisible risky asset to maximize the expected utility of the round-trip profit net of transaction costs. The optimization problem is formulated as a sequential optimal stopping problem and we provide a comple…
WSB's investment advice significantly outperformed the S&P500 over 3 years, but not consistently.
problem Reliability of investment advice from WSB community.
method Data analysis of WSB posts and stock performance from 2019-2021.
result A WSB portfolio grew 200% over 3 years and 480% over 1 year, outperforming S&P500.
The paper introduces GAER to assess market feasibility under geopolitical and institutional constraints.
problem Feasibility of adaptive market efficiency under heterogeneous institutional and geopolitical conditions.
method Structural framework integrating adaptive market theory, institutional economics, and political economy.
result GAER as a diagnostic indicator for portfolio construction feasibility.
A counterparty credit limit (CCL) is a limit that is imposed by a financial institution to cap its maximum possible exposure to a specified counterparty. CCLs help institutions to mitigate counterparty credit risk via selective diversification of their exposures. In this paper, we analyze how CCLs impact the prices tha…
Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting market participants' risk capital. Commonly used risk management tools fail to acco…
Investigates how trading boundaries change with transaction costs in portfolio selection.
problem Investigates how trading boundaries vary with transaction costs in portfolio selection.
method Analyzes Merton's problem with proportional transaction costs, showing monotonicity of trading boundaries.
result Cost-adjusted trading boundaries are monotone in transaction costs, with implications for the Merton line.