A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Input-dependent smoothing mitigates classical issues but suffers from the curse of dimensionality.
The ACCRU framework improves probabilistic forecasts by capturing input-dependent uncertainty.
Simple method improves deep classifier accuracy under noisy labels.
This paper presents a novel approach for approximate integration over the uncertainty of noise and signal variances in Gaussian process (GP) regression. Our efficient and straightforward approach can also be applied to integration over input dependent noise variance (heteroscedasticity) and input dependent signal varia…
We propose non-stationary spectral kernels for Gaussian process regression. We propose to model the spectral density of a non-stationary kernel function as a mixture of input-dependent Gaussian process frequency density surfaces. We solve the generalised Fourier transform with such a model, and present a family of non-…
Simple technique turns any adversarial attack into a universal one using few test examples.
We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates input dependent signal and noise correlations between multiple response variables,…
We introduce a novel kernel that models input-dependent couplings across multiple latent processes. The pairwise joint kernel measures covariance along inputs and across different latent signals in a mutually-dependent fashion. A latent correlation Gaussian process (LCGP) model combines these non-stationary latent comp…
We propose regularization strategies for learning discriminative models that are robust to in-class variations of the input data. We use the Wasserstein-2 geometry to capture semantically meaningful neighborhoods in the space of images, and define a corresponding input-dependent additive noise data augmentation model. …
A new method warps inputs to learn nonstationary kernels efficiently.
We present a novel approach for fully non-stationary Gaussian process regression (GPR), where all three key parameters -- noise variance, signal variance and lengthscale -- can be simultaneously input-dependent. We develop gradient-based inference methods to learn the unknown function and the non-stationary model param…
Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing the rate of False Positives, and other problem-specific tasks in applied Machine …
Gaussian Process (GP) regression models typically assume that residuals are Gaussian and have the same variance for all observations. However, applications with input-dependent noise (heteroscedastic residuals) frequently arise in practice, as do applications in which the residuals do not have a Gaussian distribution. …
We consider reinforcement learning in input-driven environments, where an exogenous, stochastic input process affects the dynamics of the system. Input processes arise in many applications, including queuing systems, robotics control with disturbances, and object tracking. Since the state dynamics and rewards depend on…
Cut-DeepONet handles discontinuities and sharp transitions in neural operators.
Flexible GP model improves wind power prediction accuracy.
We analyze a new robust method for the reconstruction of probability distributions of observed data in the presence of output outliers. It is based on a so-called gradient conjugate prior (GCP) network which outputs the parameters of a prior. By rigorously studying the dynamics of the GCP learning process, we derive an…
The sparse pseudo-input Gaussian process (SPGP) is a new approximation method for speeding up GP regression in the case of a large number of data points N. The approximation is controlled by the gradient optimization of a small set of M `pseudo-inputs', thereby reducing complexity from N^3 to NM^2. One limitation of th…
Improved image classification accuracy with a probabilistic model of label noise.
Token-adaptive FFN design improves LLM expressivity.
Researchers use Gaussian processes with non-stationary kernels to model precipitation patterns in the Upper Indus Basin.
We study the average case performance of multi-task Gaussian process (GP) regression as captured in the learning curve, i.e. the average Bayes error for a chosen task versus the total number of examples for all tasks. For GP covariances that are the product of an input-dependent covariance function and a free-form …
While Bayesian neural networks have many appealing characteristics, current priors do not easily allow users to specify basic properties such as expected lengthscale or amplitude variance. In this work, we introduce Poisson Process Radial Basis Function Networks, a novel prior that is able to encode amplitude stationar…
A new machine learning model uses matrix exponentials for universal approximation.
FDN improves probabilistic regressors' adaptability to distribution shifts.
Sparse Gaussian Processes improve scalability by learning inducing points from data.
This paper presents a data-driven approach to model planar pushing interaction to predict both the most likely outcome of a push and its expected variability. The learned models rely on a variation of Gaussian processes with input-dependent noise called Variational Heteroscedastic Gaussian processes (VHGP) that capture…
HS-MoE selects sparse experts using adaptive priors and data-adaptive gating.
AF improves classification models by adaptively weighting trees.
Low-variance gradient estimation is crucial for learning directed graphical models parameterized by neural networks, where the reparameterization trick is widely used for those with continuous variables. While this technique gives low-variance gradient estimates, it has not been directly applicable to discrete variable…
While increasingly deep networks are still in general desired for achieving state-of-the-art performance, for many specific inputs a simpler network might already suffice. Existing works exploited this observation by learning to skip convolutional layers in an input-dependent manner. However, we argue their binary deci…
Recently, non-stationary spectral kernels have drawn much attention, owing to its powerful feature representation ability in revealing long-range correlations and input-dependent characteristics. However, non-stationary spectral kernels are still shallow models, thus they are deficient to learn both hierarchical featur…
Standard kernels such as Matérn or RBF kernels only encode simple monotonic dependencies within the input space. Spectral mixture kernels have been proposed as general-purpose, flexible kernels for learning and discovering more complicated patterns in the data. Spectral mixture kernels have recently been generalized in…
Paper improves Gumbel-Softmax estimator variance reduction.
CLAPS improves conformal regression by adaptively scaling interval widths based on last-layer Laplace uncertainty.
Paper proposes a method to predict MOBA game winners with calibrated confidence.
The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially underestimated uncertainties. Notably, in the regression case the predictive varian…
In this paper we focus on the problem of assigning uncertainties to single-point predictions. We introduce a cost function that encodes the trade-off between accuracy and reliability in probabilistic forecast. We derive analytic formula for the case of forecasts of continuous scalar variables expressed in terms of Gaus…
This paper introduces Non-Autonomous Input-Output Stable Network(NAIS-Net), a very deep architecture where each stacked processing block is derived from a time-invariant non-autonomous dynamical system. Non-autonomy is implemented by skip connections from the block input to each of the unrolled processing stages and al…
Bayesian optimization improves with nonstationary covariance functions.
The paper integrates multiple Gaussian process predictions using Monte Carlo sampling.
Proposes HetSNGP method for joint model and data uncertainty modeling.
Attention mechanism is effective in both focusing the deep learning models on relevant features and interpreting them. However, attentions may be unreliable since the networks that generate them are often trained in a weakly-supervised manner. To overcome this limitation, we introduce the notion of input-dependent unce…
Neural networks approximate and estimate binary classifiers with polynomial input dependence.
Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty quantification. On the other hand, it was recently shown that ensembles of NNs, which belo…
SnareNet adds repair layers to neural networks to ensure outputs meet physical constraints.
Gating is a key feature in modern neural networks including LSTMs, GRUs and sparsely-gated deep neural networks. The backbone of such gated networks is a mixture-of-experts layer, where several experts make regression decisions and gating controls how to weigh the decisions in an input-dependent manner. Despite having …
Probabilistic neural networks are typically modeled with independent weight priors, which do not capture weight correlations in the prior and do not provide a parsimonious interface to express properties in function space. A desirable class of priors would represent weights compactly, capture correlations between weigh…