Mathematical approach assesses human resource competences accurately.
problem Accurate assessment and representation of human resource competences.
method Detailed quantification scheme and mathematical approach.
result Flexible tools for optimal job assignment and recruitment.
We obtain the conditions for the emergence of the swarm intelligence effect in an interactive game of restless multi-armed bandit (rMAB). A player competes with multiple agents. Each bandit has a payoff that changes with a probability pc per round. The agents and player choose one of three options: (1) Exploit (a …
Develops regression trees for estimating cumulative incidence curves in competing risks.
problem Estimating cumulative incidence functions in competing risks settings.
method Uses augmented estimators of the Brier score risk to build and prune regression trees.
result Demonstrates the utility of the proposed methods through simulation studies and real data.
Depression is one of the most common mental health disorders, and a large number of depressed people commit suicide each year. Potential depression sufferers usually do not consult psychological doctors because they feel ashamed or are unaware of any depression, which may result in severe delay of diagnosis and treatme…
Innovation is among the key factors driving a country's economic and social growth. But what are the factors that make a country innovative? How do they differ across different parts of the world and different stages of development? In this work done in collaboration with the World Economic Forum (WEF), we analyze the …
The well-known Ising model used in statistical physics was adapted to a social dynamics context to simulate the adoption of a technological innovation. The model explicitly combines (a) an individual's perception of the advantages of an innovation and (b) social influence from members of the decision-maker's social net…
The paper explores fair machine learning policies for balancing competing objectives in noisy data.
problem Balancing competing objectives in noisy data.
method Analyzes a class of policies that trace an empirical Pareto frontier based on learned scores.
result Characterizes optimal strategies and bounds Pareto errors due to score inaccuracies.
When the full stock of a new product is quickly sold in a few days or weeks, one has the impression that new technologies develop and conquer the market in a very easy way. This may be true for some new technologies, for example the cell phone, but not for others, like the blue-ray. Novelty, usefulness, advertising, pr…
Study uses Perelman and Ricci flow methods to analyze economic inequality.
problem Impact of socio-economic challenges and technological progress on economic inequality.
method Perelman model and Ricci flow methods.
result Technological innovations and social protection programs reduce inequality.
NoLBERT avoids lookback and lookahead biases for better econometric inference.
problem Information leakage in language models affects econometric inference.
method Pretrained on text from 1976-1995, avoiding lookback and lookahead biases.
result NoLBERT outperforms domain-specific baselines and predicts higher profit growth.
Innovative PGMs match neural networks, revealing precise approximations during forward propagation.
problem Lack of precise semantics and probabilistic interpretation in neural networks.
method Constructing infinite tree-structured PGMs that correspond to neural networks.
result DNNs perform precise approximations of PGM inference during forward propagation.
Few attempts have been proposed in order to describe the statistical features and historical evolution of the export bipartite matrix countries/products. An important standpoint is the introduction of a products network, namely a hierarchical forest of products that models the formation and the evolution of commodities…
Improved model accuracy can reduce overall user accuracy in competitive markets.
problem The impact of model competition on overall user accuracy.
method Defined a model of competition for classification tasks and used data representations to study the effect of scale.
result Improving data representation quality can decrease overall predictive accuracy across users (social welfare) in a competitive market.
Machine learning models predict which ideas will be innovated based on subjective perspectives.
problem Predicting high-impact innovation based on subjective perspectives and interpersonal innovation opportunities.
method Quantifying subjective perspectives and their interaction based on innovator positions within a geometric space of concepts.
result Subjective perspectives predict which ideas individuals and groups will creatively attend to and successfully combine in the future.
The paper tackles robust classification trees for distribution shifts, improving accuracy in public health and social work.
problem Learning robust classification trees for high-stakes settings with distribution shifts.
method Mixed-integer robust optimization technology to reformulate as a two-stage linear robust optimization problem.
result Increase of up to 12.48% in worst-case accuracy and 4.85% in average-case accuracy.
Machine learning detects regime shifts in online game-experiments with high accuracy.
problem Detecting regime shifts in online social systems.
method Gradient-boosted decision trees with memory-retaining features.
result Significantly outperforms standard early warning indicators.
Study analyzes climate-tech investments across 14 sectors.
problem Accelerating climate-tech innovation in nascent value chains.
method Analysis of 4,172 firms and 12,929 investments over 15 years.
result Only 15% of firms develop end products, 59% support them, and 26% develop services.
Social media enhances or diminishes scientific status, depending on usage.
problem Impact of social media on scientific stratification and mobility.
method Logistic Attribution Analysis combining statistical and machine learning methods.
result Social media promotes stratification and mobility, but beyond a threshold, it negatively impacts status.
Adversarial online nonparametric regression achieves optimal rates with locally adaptive learning.
problem Adversarial online nonparametric regression with general convex losses.
method Parameter-free learning algorithm leveraging chaining trees to compete against H{ö}lder functions, dynamically tracking and adapting to local smoothness variations.
result First computationally efficient algorithm with locally adaptive optimal rates for online regression in an adversarial setting.
SurvivalBoost improves prediction of event times in competing risks scenarios.
problem Predicting event times in scenarios with multiple possible outcomes.
method Developed a strictly proper censoring-adjusted scoring rule for stochastic optimization of competing risks.
result SurvivalBoost outperforms 12 state-of-the-art models across various metrics.
The study combines social interaction data into a single network, identifying stable groups of chimpanzees.
problem Identifying stable groups of chimpanzees based on social interactions over time.
method Network representation, weighted proximity weights, principled loss function, statistical tests.
result The approach detects stable groups of chimpanzees that stay related for a significant length of time.
DynForest predicts event probabilities from longitudinal data, handling endogenous predictors.
problem Predicting individual risk using longitudinal patient history.
method Random survival forests with time-fixed features from longitudinal predictors.
result DynForest provides accurate individual event probability predictions.
EmTract extracts emotions from financial social media text.
problem Understanding investor emotions in financial markets.
method Annotated data, DistilBERT model, embedding space augmentation.
result EmTract outperforms existing emotion classifiers.
New clustering method recovers hidden tree structure from data.
problem Recovering hidden hierarchical structure in data.
method Maximum average dot product for merging clusters in hierarchical clustering.
result The algorithm produces a tree that accurately represents the underlying generative hierarchical structure.
We revisit a recently introduced agent model[ACS {\bf 11}, 99 (2008)], where economic growth is a consequence of education (human capital formation) and innovation, and investigate the influence of the agents' social network, both on an agent's decision to pursue education and on the output of new ideas. Regular and ra…
DBT combines diffusion models and boosting for supervised learning.
problem Supervised learning problems.
method Diffusion Boosting paradigm and Diffusion Boosted Trees (DBT).
result DBT outperforms deep neural network-based diffusion models and is effective on real-world classification tasks.
This study shows how social insects and machine learning methods share a common mathematical framework.
problem Understanding how decentralized systems achieve optimal decision-making.
method Developed a rigorous mathematical framework to show isomorphism between ant colonies and ensemble machine learning.
result Demonstrated that ant colony decision-making and random forest learning implement identical variance reduction strategies through decorrelation of identical units.
New test improves tree ensemble pruning for better model performance.
problem Lack of robust theoretical justification for penalty terms in tree ensembles.
method Developed a novel hypothesis test for tree ensemble split quality.
result Significant reduction in out-of-sample loss using the new test.
New algorithm for competing influence spread in unknown networks.
problem Maximizing influence spread in a social network with unknown probabilities.
method Combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) framework, Triggering Probability Modulated (TPM) condition, OCIM-TS, OCIM-OFU, OCIM-ETC.
result Sublinear Bayesian and frequentist regret for OCIM-TS and OCIM-OFU, respectively.
Collaborative Trees model analyzes feature interactions and additive effects.
problem Analyzing complex statistical associations between features and response variables.
method Proposes a novel tree model and its bagging version to decompose mean decrease in impurity and visualize feature contributions.
result Demonstrates the superior capability of the tree model in estimating additive effects and interaction effects.
Model financial markets with social media influences using hierarchical networks.
problem Understanding social media's impact on financial markets.
method Agent-based model with hierarchical influence network.
result Model accurately simulates real-world financial market behaviors.
Neural style transfer, first proposed by Gatys et al. (2015), can be used to create novel artistic work through rendering a content image in the form of a style image. We present a novel method of reconstructing lost artwork, by applying neural style transfer to x-radiographs of artwork with secondary interior artwork …
A novel gradient-based method optimizes decision trees for complex tasks.
problem Training decision trees with arbitrary differentiable loss functions.
method Gradient-based optimization using first and second derivatives of loss functions.
result Improves accuracy and flexibility in decision tree optimization.
Combines MCTS and neural networks for efficient multi-period financial planning.
problem Solving multi-period financial planning models with high transaction costs and regime switching.
method Integrates Monte Carlo Tree Search with deep neural networks, using UTC and lookup search.
result Combined approach outperforms individual methods, solving complex models.
We optimize discounts to maximize influence spread in social networks.
problem Maximizing influence spread in social networks with fractional discounts.
method Developed an efficient (1-1/e)-approximation algorithm for NP-hard problem.
result Achieved an approximation of 1-1/e for influence maximization.
The aim of this work is to enable inference of deep networks that retain high accuracy for the least possible model complexity, with the latter deduced from the data during inference. To this end, we revisit deep networks that comprise competing linear units, as opposed to nonlinear units that do not entail any form of…
S-DIDML integrates structural DID with ML for causal inference in high-dimensional data.
problem Causal inference in high-dimensional observational panel data with confounding variables.
method Structural identification with high-dimensional estimation, Neyman orthogonality, cross-fitting, causal forests, semi-parametric models.
result Precision in identifying policy-sensitive groups and optimizing resource allocation.
A hybrid model for Bayesian optimization handles mixed variables using MCTS for categorical and GP for continuous.
problem Optimizing functions with mixed variable types (continuous, integer, categorical).
method Merges MCTS for categorical and GP for continuous variables, integrates UCTS search strategy, and dynamically selects kernels.
result Hybrid models outperform traditional methods in Bayesian optimization.
We investigate hierarchical structure in various complex systems according to Minimum Spanning Tree methods. Firstly, we investigate stock markets where the graphis obtained from the matrix of correlations coefficient computed between all pairs of assets by considering the synchronous time evolution of the difference o…
A growing number of empirical studies suggest that negative advertising is effective in campaigning, while the mechanisms are rarely mentioned. With the scandal of Cambridge Analytica and Russian intervention behind the Brexit and the 2016 presidential election, people have become aware of the political ads on social m…
New algorithms adaptively compete against complex environments with local regularities.
problem Efficiently competing against complex, locally regular comparator functions in nonparametric settings.
method Locally-adaptive online algorithms using hierarchical ε-nets and tree experts. result Proved regret bounds scaling with different types of local regularities, delivering better performance for simple profiles.
The paper proposes a method to infer user profiles from multiple sources of social media data.
problem Mining user profiles from social media data using a single type of information.
method Hinge-loss Markov Random Fields (HL-MRFs) integrated with multiple sources of UGC and social relations.
result HL-MRFs successfully incorporate multiple sources of information and outperform competing methods.
The inequality of wealth distribution is a universal phenomenon in the civilized nations, and it is often imputed to the Matthew effect, that is, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Some philosophers unjustified this phenomenon and tried to put the human civilization upon the evenness of wealth. Noticing the f…
Analysis of opinion dynamics in social networks plays an important role in today's life. For applications such as predicting users' political preference, it is particularly important to be able to analyze the dynamics of competing opinions. While observing the evolution of polar opinions of a social network's users ove…
Recently, how to expand data transmission to reduce cell data and repeated cell transmission has received more and more research attention. In mobile social networks, content popularity prediction has always been an important part of traffic offloading and expanding data dissemination. However, current mainstream conte…
We propose a new splitting criterion for a meta-learning approach to multiclass classifier design that adaptively merges the classes into a tree-structured hierarchy of increasingly difficult binary classification problems. The classification tree is constructed from empirical estimates of the Henze-Penrose bounds on t…
The game of Chinese Checkers is a challenging traditional board game of perfect information that differs from other traditional games in two main aspects: first, unlike Chess, all checkers remain indefinitely in the game and hence the branching factor of the search tree does not decrease as the game progresses; second,…
New complete panel dataset for LMICs helps analyze innovation and development.
problem Lack of complete data for empirical analyses in LMICs.
method Predictive Mean Matching multiple imputation technique.
result Created a large dataset of 47 variables for 82 LMICs from 2005-2019.