A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We propose a general framework for solving the group synchronization problem, where we focus on the setting of adversarial or uniform corruption and sufficiently small noise. Specifically, we apply a novel message passing procedure that uses cycle consistency information in order to estimate the corruption levels of gr…
We study the effect of the quality and quantity of side information on the recovery of a hidden community of size K=o(n) in a graph of size n. Side information for each node in the graph is modeled by a random vector with the following features: either the dimension of the vector is allowed to vary with n, while …
Paper connects contrastive learning to MI maximization and establishes robust methods for nonlinear ICA and subspace estimation.
problem Understanding and improving unsupervised representation learning and density ratio estimation.
method The paper connects contrastive learning to MI maximization, establishes new recovery conditions for nonlinear ICA, and proposes a practical outlier-robust method for nonlinear subspace estimation.
result The proposed methods can be seen as maximizing MI, performing nonlinear ICA, or estimating nonlinear subspaces, and are robust to outliers.
We develop, discuss, and compare several inference techniques to constrain theory parameters in collider experiments. By harnessing the latent-space structure of particle physics processes, we extract extra information from the simulator. This augmented data can be used to train neural networks that precisely estimate …
Omega ratio, defined as the probability-weighted ratio of gains over losses at a given level of expected return, has been advocated as a better performance indicator compared to Sharpe and Sortino ratio as it depends on the full return distribution and hence encapsulates all information about risk and return. We comput…
We consider the Principal Component Analysis problem for large tensors of arbitrary order k under a single-spike (or rank-one plus noise) model. On the one hand, we use information theory, and recent results in probability theory, to establish necessary and sufficient conditions under which the principal component ca…
The position of the EWS (economy-wide substitution)-ratio vector determines the Rybczynski sign pattern, which expresses the factor endowment--commodity output relationships, and the Stolper-Samuelson sign pattern, which expresses the commodity price--factor price relationships in a three-factor two-good general equili…
The paper shows that causal identification is not essential for efficient portfolios, focusing on geometric sufficiency conditions.
problem The necessity of causal identification for efficient portfolios.
method Re-examination of predictive signals and their impact on portfolio efficiency under structural misspecification.
result Efficiency is governed by geometric sufficiency conditions (directional alignment, ranking preservation, and calibration) rather than causal identification.
An algorithmically hard phase was described in a range of inference problems: even if the signal can be reconstructed with a small error from an information theoretic point of view, known algorithms fail unless the noise-to-signal ratio is sufficiently small. This hard phase is typically understood as a metastable bran…
Many classical objects on a surface S can be interpreted as cross-ratio functions on the circle at infinity of the universal covering. This includes closed curves considered up to homotopy, metrics of negative curvature considered up to isotopy and, in the case of interest here, tangent vectors to the Teichmüller space…
Alpha-based performance evaluation may fail to capture correlated residuals due to model errors. This paper proposes using the Generalized Information Ratio (GIR) to measure performance under misspecified benchmarks. Motivated by the theoretical link between abnormal returns and residual covariance matrix, GIR is deriv…
Outlier detection is an important topic in machine learning and has been used in a wide range of applications. In this paper, we approach outlier detection as a binary-classification issue by sampling potential outliers from a uniform reference distribution. However, due to the sparsity of data in high-dimensional spac…
Decision trees algorithms use a gain function to select the best split during the tree's induction. This function is crucial to obtain trees with high predictive accuracy. Some gain functions can suffer from a bias when it compares splits of different arities. Quinlan proposed a gain ratio in C4.5's information gain fu…
The study examines how formal index insurance compares to informal risk sharing in managing natural disasters.
problem The challenges of natural disasters and the effectiveness of index insurance in risk management.
method A three-strategy evolutionary game model to analyze the competitive relationship between formal index insurance, informal risk sharing, and non-insurance.
result Basis risk and loss ratio significantly impact the adoption rate of index insurance, with different strategies preferred under varying conditions.
In this short note we observe that a recent result of C.-W. Chen meshes well with earlier work of H.-D. Cao and D.-T. Zhou, O. Munteanu, J. Carrillo and L. Ni, and S.-J. Zhang to give a necessary and sufficient condition for complete noncompact shrinking gradient Ricci solitons to have positive asymptotic volume ratio.
We study online optimization in a setting where an online learner seeks to optimize a per-round hitting cost, which may be non-convex, while incurring a movement cost when changing actions between rounds. We ask: \textit{under what general conditions is it possible for an online learner to leverage predictions of futur…
When the in-sample Sharpe ratio is obtained by optimizing over a k-dimensional parameter space, it is a biased estimator for what can be expected on unseen data (out-of-sample). We derive (1) an unbiased estimator adjusting for both sources of bias: noise fit and estimation error. We then show (2) how to use the adjust…
Thompson Sampling bounds for contextual bandits with sub-Gaussian rewards.
problem Improving the performance of Thompson Sampling in contextual bandits with sub-Gaussian rewards.
method Proved comprehensive bounds on Thompson Sampling expected cumulative regret based on mutual information and lifted information ratio for sub-Gaussian rewards.
result Explicit regret bounds for various contextual bandit scenarios.
Double descent in portfolio optimization shows improved performance with complexity, then declines, due to overfitting.
problem Improving portfolio optimization performance with model complexity.
method Investigates the relationship between model complexity and out-of-sample performance in mean-variance portfolio optimization.
result Performance of low-dimensional models initially improves with complexity but declines due to overfitting. High-dimensional models show double ascent Sharpe ratio curve.
EviTrack improves sequential prediction in delayed disambiguation scenarios.
problem Challenges in sequential prediction with delayed disambiguation where early observations are ambiguous.
method EviTrack operates over latent trajectories, applying evidence- and likelihood-ratio-based selection to delay commitment until supported by data.
result EviTrack outperforms sampling-based baselines in a controlled synthetic benchmark, achieving faster post-disambiguation recovery.
We introduce a model-independent approximation for the branching ratio of Hawkes self-exciting point processes. Our estimator requires knowing only the mean and variance of the event count in a sufficiently large time window, statistics that are readily obtained from empirical data. The method we propose greatly simpli…
We consider convex hypersurfaces for which the ratio of principal curvatures at each point is bounded by a function of the maximum principal curvature with limit 1 at infinity. We prove that the ratio of circumradius to inradius is bounded by a function of the circumradius with limit 1 at zero. We apply this result to …
We introduce a new general framework for constructing the best trading strategy for a given historical indicator. We construct the unique trading strategy with the highest expected return. This optimal strategy may be implemented directly, or its expected return may be used as a benchmark to evaluate how far away from …