A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
AIDA designs personalized audio processing algorithms for hearing aids.
Domain adaptation has become a prominent problem setting in machine learning and related fields. This review asks the question: how can a classifier learn from a source domain and generalize to a target domain? We present a categorization of approaches, divided into, what we refer to as, sample-based, feature-based and…
Researchers analyze how algorithmic and implementation choices affect RL performance.
Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior over parameters by conditioning on data being inside an -ball around the obs…
Develops a method to infer partial rankings from sparse comparisons.
VINNAS uses variational inference to avoid mode collapse in neural architecture search.
ISALT uses inference to simulate SDEs with large time-steps, improving efficiency.
This paper introduces Wasserstein variational inference, a new form of approximate Bayesian inference based on optimal transport theory. Wasserstein variational inference uses a new family of divergences that includes both f-divergences and the Wasserstein distance as special cases. The gradients of the Wasserstein var…
A new multivariate stochastic volatility estimation procedure for financial time series is proposed. A Wishart autoregressive process is considered for the volatility precision covariance matrix, for the estimation of which a two step procedure is adopted. The first step is the conditional inference on the autoregressi…
New method infers unknown parameters in quantum sensing with high probability.
Approximate inference algorithm is one of the fundamental research fields in machine learning. The two dominant theoretical inference frameworks in machine learning are variational inference (VI) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, because of the fundamental limitation in the theory, it is very challenging to…
PPI++ uses machine learning predictions to improve inference from small datasets.
New method improves generalization of VAEs by reducing overfitting.
We propose a hierarchy for approximate inference based on the Dobrushin, Lanford, Ruelle (DLR) equations. This hierarchy includes existing algorithms, such as belief propagation, and also motivates novel algorithms such as factorized neighbors (FN) algorithms and variants of mean field (MF) algorithms. In particular, w…
Disentangled representations, where the higher level data generative factors are reflected in disjoint latent dimensions, offer several benefits such as ease of deriving invariant representations, transferability to other tasks, interpretability, etc. We consider the problem of unsupervised learning of disentangled rep…
A new model encodes distances and topology in latent variables.
Bayesian inference corrected for bias in high-dimensional models.
The paper learns robot skills from demonstrations without supervision.
We propose design guidelines for a probabilistic programming facility suitable for deployment as a part of a production software system. As a reference implementation, we introduce Infergo, a probabilistic programming facility for Go, a modern programming language of choice for server-side software development. We argu…
In nonlinear state-space models, sequential learning about the hidden state can proceed by particle filtering when the density of the observation conditional on the state is available analytically (e.g. Gordon et al., 1993). This condition need not hold in complex environments, such as the incomplete-information equili…
Existing model-based reinforcement learning methods often study perception modeling and decision making separately. We introduce joint Perception and Control as Inference (PCI), a general framework to combine perception and control for partially observable environments through Bayesian inference. Based on the fact that…
We introduce TrustVI, a fast second-order algorithm for black-box variational inference based on trust-region optimization and the reparameterization trick. At each iteration, TrustVI proposes and assesses a step based on minibatches of draws from the variational distribution. The algorithm provably converges to a stat…
A new method for VAEs improves latent space disentanglement without violating probability laws.
New method improves parameter estimation in complex stochastic models.
VPNet uses variable projection for efficient neural network training.
New approach for causal inference with interdependent, time-varying latent confounders.
New method calibrates predictions in chaotic systems using variational inference.
Paper proposes learnable topological features for efficient phylogenetic inference.
Understanding the pathways whereby an intervention has an effect on an outcome is a common scientific goal. A rich body of literature provides various decompositions of the total intervention effect into pathway specific effects. Interventional direct and indirect effects provide one such decomposition. Existing estima…
This work frames active inference through control as inference, offering robust control algorithms.
In this paper, we describe a general method for constructing the posterior distribution of an option price. Our framework takes as inputs the prior distributions of the parameters of the stochastic process followed by the underlying, as well as the likelihood function implied by the observed price history for the under…
Gaussian process modulated Poisson processes provide a flexible framework for modelling spatiotemporal point patterns. So far this had been restricted to one dimension, binning to a pre-determined grid, or small data sets of up to a few thousand data points. Here we introduce Cox process inference based on Fourier feat…
Statistical inference based on lossy or incomplete samples is often needed in research areas such as signal/image processing, medical image storage, remote sensing, signal transmission. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric testing procedure based on samples quantized to bits through a computationally efficient…
Interest in multioutput kernel methods is increasing, whether under the guise of multitask learning, multisensor networks or structured output data. From the Gaussian process perspective a multioutput Mercer kernel is a covariance function over correlated output functions. One way of constructing such kernels is based …
A new method uses Gaussian Processes to solve power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
New coin sampling method for Bayesian inference without learning rates.
In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic objectives because the existing debiasing techniques are computationally costly to a…
We introduce a new Bayesian multi-class support vector machine by formulating a pseudo-likelihood for a multi-class hinge loss in the form of a location-scale mixture of Gaussians. We derive a variational-inference-based training objective for gradient-based learning. Additionally, we employ an inducing point approxima…
This paper provides a dictionary of closed-form kernel mean embeddings.
Variational methods are employed in situations where exact Bayesian inference becomes intractable due to the difficulty in performing certain integrals. Typically, variational methods postulate a tractable posterior and formulate a lower bound on the desired integral to be approximated, e.g. marginal likelihood. The lo…
Gaussian processes for dynamical systems with Koopman equivariance.
Noise-aware DP inference improves accuracy for complex models.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) stand at the forefront of many recent developments in deep learning. Yet a major difficulty with these models is their tendency to overfit, with dropout shown to fail when applied to recurrent layers. Recent results at the intersection of Bayesian modelling and deep learning offer a Bay…
Partition functions arise in a variety of settings, including conditional random fields, logistic regression, and latent gaussian models. In this paper, we consider semistochastic quadratic bound (SQB) methods for maximum likelihood inference based on partition function optimization. Batch methods based on the quadrati…
We address challenges in estimating parameters from adaptively collected data.
Study deep maxout networks and their equivalence to Gaussian processes.
We propose a method (TT-GP) for approximate inference in Gaussian Process (GP) models. We build on previous scalable GP research including stochastic variational inference based on inducing inputs, kernel interpolation, and structure exploiting algebra. The key idea of our method is to use Tensor Train decomposition fo…
DAGSurv uses deep neural networks to analyze survival data based on causal graphs.