Machine learning improves diagnostic test accuracy for bovine tuberculosis.
problem Improving diagnostic test sensitivity for bovine tuberculosis.
method Machine learning to assess risk landscapes and predict infection.
result Test sensitivity improved, detecting 240 more infected herds per year.
CRISP predicts individual-level COVID-19 risk based on contact data.
problem Estimating individual-level infection risk during the pandemic.
method Probabilistic graphical model using SEIR framework with contact data.
result Model accurately predicts infection spread and recovery times.
The question of how to stabilize financial systems has attracted considerable attention since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Recently, Beale et al. ("Individual versus systemic risk and the regulator's dilemma", Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108: 12647-12652, 2011) demonstrated that higher portfolio diversity among…
Paper uses UKS to improve BLE RSSI for proximity inference in mobile phone apps.
problem Improper BLE RSSI for accurate proximity inference during pandemics.
method Single-dimensional Unscented Kalman Smoother (UKS) with Gaussian process observation transforms.
result UKS outperforms traditional methods in predicting infection risk from BLE RSSI.
This study proposes a method to predict ICU infections from imbalanced data using clustering-based undersampling and ensemble classifiers.
problem Predicting healthcare-associated infections in ICU patients from imbalanced data.
method Clustering-based undersampling strategy combined with ensemble classifiers.
result The proposed method outperforms other resampling techniques in predicting ICU infections.
Although timely sepsis diagnosis and prompt interventions in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients are associated with reduced mortality, early clinical recognition is frequently impeded by non-specific signs of infection and failure to detect signs of sepsis-induced organ dysfunction in a constellation of dynamically cha…
Novel method combines neural network features with survival models for ICU infections.
problem Improving predictive models of ICU infections while maintaining interpretability.
method Semi-parametric approach combining low-resolution and high-resolution data.
result Improved predictive power with interpretability maintained.
New model predicts banana disease risk from climate data.
problem Managing Black Sigatoka disease under climate change.
method Latent Neural ODEs to model infection dynamics.
result Superior generalization performance up to one month ahead.
Research proposes a risk-free machine learning model for COVID screening from routine blood tests.
problem Rapid antigen tests have low sensitivity and are not suitable for widespread screening.
method Stacked Ensemble Machine Learning model using routine blood tests.
result 100% accuracy, precision, recall and F1-score in identifying COVID patients.
Study uses machine learning to optimize antibiotic therapy for MRSA skin infections.
problem Optimizing antibiotic choice for MRSA skin infections due to reduced treatment options and side effects.
method Propensity score matching, machine learning models (SVM, RF, LASSO), counterfactual analysis.
result RF model shows stronger treatment heterogeneity and potential for therapy change.
Study reveals hidden infections and infection dynamics from early data.
problem Understanding early infection dynamics and hidden infections in COVID-19.
method Data-driven machine learning analysis focusing on infection counts over time.
result Significant asymptomatic infections, 10-day lag, and strong infectious force.
Viral zoonoses have emerged as the key drivers of recent pandemics. Human infection by zoonotic viruses are either spillover events -- isolated infections that fail to cause a widespread contagion -- or species jumps, where successful adaptation to the new host leads to a pandemic. Despite expensive bio-surveillance ef…
The global crisis of 2008 provoked a heightened interest among scientists to study the phenomenon, its propagation and negative consequences. The process of modelling the spread of a virus is commonly used in epidemiology. Conceptually, the spread of a disease among a population is similar to the contagion process in e…
AI4COVID-19 app diagnoses COVID-19 from cough samples.
problem Scalable screening tool for COVID-19 testing.
method Transfer learning and multi-pronged AI architecture.
result AI4COVID-19 can distinguish COVID-19 coughs from others.
The present paper provides a multi-period contagion model in the credit risk field. Our model is an extension of Davis and Lo's infectious default model. We consider an economy of n firms which may default directly or may be infected by other defaulting firms (a domino effect being also possible). The spontaneous defau…
A new model characterizes undocumented and asymptomatic infections to quantify COVID-19 uncertainties.
problem Quantifying uncertainties in COVID-19 infections and contagion.
method SUDR model: characterizes undocumented and documented infections, captures probabilistic density, and incorporates Bayesian inference.
result Demonstrates deeper understanding of COVID-19 uncertainties compared to classic models.
Satellite constructions on a knot can be thought of as taking some strands of a knot and then tying in another knot. Using satellite constructions one can construct many distinct isotopy classes of knots. Pushing this further one can construct distinct concordance classes of knots which preserve some algebraic invarian…
Random forest models predict CLABSI risk in hospital admissions, with static models performing similarly to dynamic ones.
problem Predicting CLABSI risk in hospital admissions using EHR data with competing risks.
method Comparison of static and dynamic random forest models for binary, multinomial, survival, and competing risks outcomes.
result Static and dynamic random forest models perform similarly in predicting CLABSI risk, with multinomial models having the lowest computation times.
Paper derives policy rules from observational data for hepatitis C treatment.
problem Improving treatment guidelines for HIV/HCV co-infected patients.
method Weighted K-means algorithm for estimating CATEs, decision tree implementation.
result Identifies a subgroup with high spontaneous HCV clearance rate.
Bayesian methods improve group testing for identifying infected patients.
problem Identifying infected patients from group testing results with false positives.
method Bayesian inference and belief propagation algorithm, combined with expectation-maximization method.
result True-positive rate improved by considering credible intervals.
Modeling infection hotspots to quantify effects of contact tracing and testing.
problem Capturing the role of infection hotspots in disease transmission.
method Temporal point process modeling framework to represent visits and disease transmission.
result Estimation of transmission rates at sites and households using Bayesian optimization.
Deep learning identifies transcriptomic patterns and cell types associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity.
problem Understanding how SARS-CoV-2 varies in infecting and causing severe COVID-19.
method Developed a new approach to generating self-supervised edge features, using Graph Attention Networks (GAT) and Set Transformer.
result Achieved state-of-the-art performance in predicting disease state of individual cells using single-cell RNA sequencing data.
Paper proposes a new method for more accurate group testing of infected patients.
problem Identifying infected patients efficiently with reduced tests and corrected errors.
method Adaptive design of pools based on Bayesian posterior prediction using belief propagation algorithm.
result The proposed method results in more accurate identification of infected patients.
Detection of malware-infected computers and detection of malicious web domains based on their encrypted HTTPS traffic are challenging problems, because only addresses, timestamps, and data volumes are observable. The detection problems are coupled, because infected clients tend to interact with malicious domains. Traff…
A time-dependent SIR model predicts COVID-19 spread and herd immunity.
problem Modeling and predicting COVID-19 spread and herd immunity.
method Time-dependent SIR model with 2 types of infected persons (detectable and undetectable).
result The model accurately predicts the turning point and herd immunity threshold.
New Milnor's invariant condition for topologically slice links.
problem Conditions for topologically slice links involving Milnor's invariant.
method Different Milnor's invariant condition to handle cases not covered by previous theorem.
result New sufficient conditions for topologically slice links.
New method detects close contacts to prevent SARS-CoV-2 spread.
problem Detecting close contacts to prevent SARS-CoV-2 spread.
method Machine learning approach using BLE data.
result Reliable detection of close contacts reduces SARS-CoV-2 risk.
LSTM models predict low likelihood of another COVID-19 wave in India.
problem Inaccurate and unreliable COVID-19 infection forecasting models due to data limitations and model complexity.
method Application of LSTM, bidirectional LSTM, and encoder-decoder LSTM models for multi-step infection forecasting.
result Predictions indicate low likelihood of another wave in October and November 2021.
Budney recently constructed an operad that encodes splicing of knots. He further showed that the space of (long) knots is generated over this operad by the space of torus knots and hyperbolic knots, thus generalizing the satellite decomposition of knots from isotopy classes to the level of the space of knots. Infection…
We consider the problem of learning the weighted edges of a graph by observing the noisy times of infection for multiple epidemic cascades on this graph. Past work has considered this problem when the cascade information, i.e., infection times, are known exactly. Though the noisy setting is well motivated by many epide…
Deep learning model predicts severe COVID-19 outcomes.
problem Predicting severe COVID-19 outcomes in ED patients.
method Deep feature fusion model using EHR data and CXR images.
result CO-RISK score achieved AUC of 0.95 and 0.92 for 24 and 72 hours predictions, superior to human performance.
Paper analyzes factors affecting COVID-19 risk in US counties.
problem Identifying factors influencing COVID-19 risk in US counties.
method Combines unsupervised (K-means clustering) and supervised learning models.
result Mean temperature, poverty, obesity, and other factors are most significant.
This study interprets machine learning models to identify biomarkers for severe COVID-19 infection.
problem The black-box nature of machine learning models makes it difficult for medical researchers to understand and trust their predictions.
method The study uses permutation feature importance, Partial Dependence Plot, Individual Conditional Expectation, Accumulated Local Effects, Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations, and Shapley Additive Explanation to interpret four machine learning models.
result The study identifies NTproBNP, CRP, LDH, LYM, leukocytes, eosinophils, and platelets as biomarkers associated with severe COVID-19 infection.
Machine learning detects and diagnoses coughs for respiratory infections.
problem Detecting and diagnosing coughs for respiratory infections.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to detect cough events and diagnose three illnesses.
result Accuracy over 89% for detection and diagnosis.
Study develops a dynamic risk model for COVID-19 mortality using UK Biobank data.
problem Developing tools to monitor high-risk patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Data-driven random forest classification model using baseline characteristics and symptoms.
result Model predicts COVID-19 mortality with excellent performance (AUC: 0.91), identifying novel predictors.
Study of influenza A virus spread using mathematical equations.
problem Understanding the spread of influenza A virus infection.
method Mathematical model and analysis of dynamical system.
result Surface trajectories and asymptotic behavior of the system.
Acute respiratory infections have epidemic and pandemic potential and thus are being studied worldwide, albeit in many different contexts and study formats. Predicting infection from symptom data is critical, though using symptom data from varied studies in aggregate is challenging because the data is collected in diff…
New group testing method uses Belief Propagation for accurate screening.
problem Efficiently identifying infected samples in large groups with minimal tests.
method Belief Propagation algorithm for inference in group testing schemes.
result Significantly increased accuracy of infection identification with fewer tests.
Bayesian optimization improves classifier selection for acute infection and mortality.
problem Improving accuracy of acute infection and mortality prediction.
method Comparison of hyperparameter optimization methods (grid search, random sampling, Bayesian optimization).
result Bayesian optimization outperforms grid search or random sampling for in-hospital mortality classifiers.
Many works have been proposed in the literature to capture the dynamics of diffusion in networks. While some of them define graphical markovian models to extract temporal relationships between node infections in networks, others consider diffusion episodes as sequences of infections via recurrent neural models. In this…
Epidemiological model updates infection rates in China, US, Italy.
problem Evaluate policy interventions for mitigating the 2019-nCov pandemic.
method Custom SITR model with variational data assimilation for real-time updates.
result Model robust to initial conditions, infers infection numbers and parameters.
We give an explicit construction of linearly independent families of knots arbitrarily deep in the (n)-solvable filtration of the knot concordance group using the ρ^1-invariant. A difference between previous constructions of infinite rank subgroups in the concordance group and ours is that the deepest infecting knots i…
Study phase transitions in identifying infected individuals using group testing.
problem Identifying a set of k infected individuals from a population using pooled tests.
method Two random assignment designs (constant-column and Bernoulli) and polynomial-time inference procedures.
result Sharp phase transitions in statistical and computational limits for detection and recovery problems.
New method provides reliable probabilistic bounds for VUR detection.
problem Detect VUR in children without radiation exposure.
method Machine learning with probabilistic bounds for conditional probability.
result Guaranteed bounds contain well-calibrated probabilities.
Paper develops fine-grain spatiotemporal risk scores using high-resolution mobility data.
problem Developing reliable spatiotemporal risk scores for safe economic reopening.
method Hawkes process-based technique leveraging high-resolution cell-phone location signals.
result Fine-grain spatiotemporal risk scores based on high-resolution mobility data provide useful insights for safe re-opening.
Blood lactate concentration is a strong indicator of mortality risk in critically ill patients. While frequent lactate measurements are necessary to assess patient's health state, the measurement is an invasive procedure that can increase risk of hospital-acquired infections. For this reason we formally define the prob…
Backdoor attacks are found to be effective against robust machine learning models trained with PGD.
problem Injecting and defending against backdoor attacks in robust machine learning models.
method Study and detection of backdoor attacks on PGD-trained robust models using feature clustering.
result AEGIS effectively detects PGD-trained robust DNNs infected with backdoors with 91.6% accuracy.
Information diffusion and virus propagation are fundamental processes taking place in networks. While it is often possible to directly observe when nodes become infected with a virus or adopt the information, observing individual transmissions (i.e., who infects whom, or who influences whom) is typically very difficult…