Study explores efficient data division for ICPs.
problem Efficiently dividing limited development data for ICPs.
method Experiments with training, calibration, and test data divisions.
result Allows overlap between training and calibration sets improves efficiency.
Study shows NCCP can replace CP for ACI in non-exchangeable data.
problem Ensuring reliable prediction under non-exchangeability.
method Demonstrates NCCP as a valid alternative to CP for ACI.
result NCCP offers computational advantages and comparable predictive efficiency.
This note introduces the method of cross-conformal prediction, which is a hybrid of the methods of inductive conformal prediction and cross-validation, and studies its validity and predictive efficiency empirically.
This paper explores conformal prediction in the learning under privileged information (LUPI) paradigm. We use the SVM+ realization of LUPI in an inductive conformal predictor, and apply it to the MNIST benchmark dataset and three datasets in drug discovery. The results show that using privileged information produces va…
This paper applies conformal prediction techniques to compute simultaneous prediction bands and clustering trees for functional data. These tools can be used to detect outliers and clusters. Both our prediction bands and clustering trees provide prediction sets for the underlying stochastic process with a guaranteed fi…
New methods for CI testing under model misspecification.
problem Challenges in CI testing with misspecified models.
method Proposes new approximations and upper bounds for testing errors of regression-based CI tests.
result Introduces the Rao-Blackwellized Predictor Test (RBPT) robust against misspecified inductive biases.
Efficiency criteria improve conformal predictors' performance.
problem Improving the performance of conformal predictors.
method Learning classifiers by minimizing observed fuzziness as a training objective function.
result Conformal predictors trained by minimizing observed fuzziness perform better than traditional ones.
CAOS aggregates multiple one-shot predictors for efficient uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification in one-shot prediction.
method CAOS, a conformal framework that aggregates multiple one-shot predictors and uses a leave-one-out calibration scheme.
result CAOS produces smaller prediction sets with reliable coverage compared to split conformal baselines.
PAC-Bayes theory improves ICP efficiency and coverage.
problem Inefficient and unreliable uncertainty estimates in deep learning models.
method PAC-Bayes theory to optimize model and score function parameters for efficient and reliable prediction sets.
result Generalization bounds on coverage and efficiency of optimized prediction sets.
This paper discusses a counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, conformal e-prediction. Conformal e-prediction is conceptually simpler and had been developed in the 1990s as a precursor of conformal prediction. When conformal prediction emerged as result of replacing e-values by p-values, it seemed to have imp…
Proposes a new method to unlearn from specific data points in conformal predictors.
problem Challenges of existing unlearning methods in conformal predictors.
method Formalizes conformal unlearning, introduces practical metrics, and presents an optimization algorithm.
result Demonstrates effective removal of targeted information while preserving utility.
New method calibrates uncertainty estimates for image classifiers without labeled data.
problem Uncertainty estimates for modern classifiers are unreliable without labeled calibration data.
method Calibrates uncertainty estimates using unlabeled examples for distribution shifts.
result Proposes a method that provides excellent uncertainty estimates under natural distribution shifts.
A new method controls risk for set predictors using cross-validation.
problem Inefficient set predictors when data limited.
method Cross-validation conformal risk control (CV-CRC).
result CV-CRC offers theoretical guarantees and reduces set size.
We consider the problem of quickest change-point detection in data streams. Classical change-point detection procedures, such as CUSUM, Shiryaev-Roberts and Posterior Probability statistics, are optimal only if the change-point model is known, which is an unrealistic assumption in typical applied problems. Instead we p…
Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by conformal predictive systems may be useful, e.g., in decision making problems. Conf…
Study on merging predictors in causal and anticausal directions using CMAXENT.
problem Comparing merging predictors in causal and anticausal directions.
method Using CMAXENT as inductive bias, study differences in merging predictors.
result CMAXENT solution reduces to logistic regression in causal direction and LDA in anticausal direction.
Most machine learning classifiers give predictions for new examples accurately, yet without indicating how trustworthy predictions are. In the medical domain, this hampers their integration in decision support systems, which could be useful in the clinical practice. We use a supervised learning approach that combines E…
The paper develops exact and approximate conformal inference methods for multi-output regression.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-output regression predictions.
method Exact derivations and approximations of conformal inference p-values for linear multi-output predictors, and efficient methods for nonlinear predictors.
result Efficient methods for approximating conformal prediction regions for multi-output predictors, both linear and nonlinear.
Stacked conformal prediction simplifies model validation.
problem Validating stacked predictive models efficiently.
method Meta-learner at the top of a stacked ensemble for approximate marginal validity.
result The method achieves approximate marginal validity without a separate calibration sample.
Extends positive mass theorem to arbitrary dimensions using a new inductive scheme.
problem Overcoming singularities in the Schoen-Yau proof for arbitrary dimensions.
method Inductive scheme combining shielding principle, conformal blow-up, and Cheeger-Naber bound.
result Proof of positive mass theorem in arbitrary dimensions.
Improves conformal prediction by combining multiple score functions and optimizing weights.
problem Limitations of single-score conformal predictors in multi-class classification.
method Combines multiple score functions and optimizes weights to minimize prediction set size.
result Consistently outperforms single-score conformal predictors while maintaining valid coverage.
Conformal prediction is a method of producing prediction sets that can be applied on top of a wide range of prediction algorithms. The method has a guaranteed coverage probability under the standard IID assumption regardless of whether the assumptions (often considerably more restrictive) of the underlying algorithm ar…
Principal Components Analysis is a widely used technique for dimension reduction and characterization of variability in multivariate populations. Our interest lies in studying when and why the rotation to principal components can be used effectively within a response-predictor set relationship in the context of mode hu…
New statistical guarantee improves conformal predictors for small datasets.
problem Uncertainty quantification for small datasets in surrogate models.
method Proposed a new statistical guarantee for conformal predictors, converging to standard CP for large datasets.
result The new guarantee offers relevant information about coverage for small data sizes, improving applicability.
The present paper describes a way to relate Martin boundaries on spaces of varying topology. This enables us to approach some detailed inductive analysis of the eigenfunctions of conformal Laplacians on minimal hypersurfaces near their singularities. This can directly be used resp. translated to understand the way how …
The paper tackles time series data by applying conformal prediction with nearest neighbors.
problem Time series data violates the exchangeability assumption required for conformal prediction.
method The approach uses the nearest neighbors method with fast parameter tuning and weighted nearest neighbors (FPTO-WNN) to construct reliable prediction intervals.
result Data analysis shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
ICP provides interval predictions with high confidence coverage.
problem High-risk settings where true output must be highly probable.
method ICP is a distribution-free, model-agnostic algorithm.
result ICP outputs prediction intervals with high coverage probability.
ICP improves text infilling and POS tagging with valid confidence sets.
problem Statistical reliability of machine learning predictions.
method Inductive conformal prediction algorithms for text infilling and POS tagging.
result Valid set-valued predictions with small size for real-world applications.
Paper discusses optimal CP for second-order predictions.
problem How to incorporate second-order predictions into conformal prediction.
method Introduces Bernoulli prediction sets (BPS) for second-order predictions and applies conformal risk control for compromised validity.
result BPS provides the smallest prediction sets with conditional coverage.
Split conformal prediction works well for time series despite temporal dependence.
problem Uncertainty quantification for time series predictions with past data.
method Split conformal prediction method for time series data with predictors having memory.
result Theoretical bounds on coverage probability for split conformal prediction in time series with memory.
A method for predicting credal sets in classification tasks using conformal prediction.
problem Designing methods for learning credal set predictors in machine learning.
method Incorporates conformal prediction for predicting credal sets in classification tasks.
result Conformal credal sets are guaranteed to be valid with high probability.
The paper proposes a method for valid multi-target regression predictions.
problem Valid multi-variate predictions for multi-target regression.
method Copula functions applied to deep neural networks for inductive conformal prediction.
result The proposed method ensures efficiency and validity for multi-target regression problems.
Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample guarantees for black-box models without distributional assumptions.
problem Weak performance guarantees for modern predictive models under minimal assumptions.
method Develops finite-sample guarantees for split conformal prediction, a method that uses nested prediction sets and order statistics.
result The coverage of prediction sets based on order statistics stochastically dominates the Beta distribution.
Paper argues for using functional theory of randomness for better understanding of data exchangeability and conformal prediction.
problem Understanding relationships between IID data assumptions and data exchangeability.
method Translation of conformal prediction results into the language of functional theory of randomness.
result Every confidence predictor valid for IID data can be transformed to a conformal predictor without losing much predictive efficiency.
Conformal Alignment ensures trustworthy outputs from foundation models.
problem Ensuring outputs from foundation models align with human values in high-stakes tasks.
method A framework that trains an alignment predictor using reference data to select trustworthy outputs.
result Conformal Alignment accurately identifies trustworthy outputs via lightweight training over moderate reference data.
While the use of deep learning in drug discovery is gaining increasing attention, the lack of methods to compute reliable errors in prediction for Neural Networks prevents their application to guide decision making in domains where identifying unreliable predictions is essential, e.g. precision medicine. Here, we prese…
We propose an inductive matrix completion model without using side information. By factorizing the (rating) matrix into the product of low-dimensional latent embeddings of rows (users) and columns (items), a majority of existing matrix completion methods are transductive, since the learned embeddings cannot generalize …
Conformal predictors, introduced by Vovk et al. (2005), serve to build prediction intervals by exploiting a notion of conformity of the new data point with previously observed data. In the present paper, we propose a novel method for constructing prediction intervals for the response variable in multivariate linear mod…
Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.
problem Establishing valid prediction intervals in semantic feature spaces.
method Extends conformal prediction to semantic feature spaces using deep representation learning.
result Feature conformal prediction outperforms regular conformal prediction under mild assumptions.
A well known result of Da Rios and Levi-Civita says that a closed planar curve is elastic if and only if it is stationary under the localized induction (or smoke ring) equation, where stationary means that the evolution under the localized induction equation is by rigid motions. We prove an analogous result for surface…
Develops efficient time series prediction intervals.
problem Constructing reliable prediction intervals for time series data.
method Introduces exttt{EnbPI} algorithm for time series data.
result Demonstrates superior performance compared to existing methods.
Meta-learning reduces set prediction size in conformal prediction for few-shot calibration.
problem Inefficient set prediction in conformal prediction for limited training data.
method Meta-learning approach using cross-validation-based conformal prediction.
result Meta-learning scheme reduces set prediction size and preserves formal guarantees.
Interpretability has arisen as a key desideratum of machine learning models alongside performance. Approaches so far have been primarily concerned with fixed dimensional inputs emphasizing feature relevance or selection. In contrast, we focus on temporal modeling and the problem of tailoring the predictor, functionally…
Characterizes inductive bias in multi-channel linear CNNs with bounded weight norm.
problem Understanding the inductive bias in multi-channel linear convolutional networks.
method Function space characterization and empirical testing of gradient descent.
result The inductive bias depends on the number of output channels for multi-channel inputs but not for single-channel inputs.
Endowing robots with human-like physical reasoning abilities remains challenging. We argue that existing methods often disregard spatio-temporal relations and by using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) that incorporate a relational inductive bias, we can shift the learning process towards exploiting relations. In this work,…
Improves GNN prediction sets with conformal prediction for node classification.
problem Lack of predictive uncertainty for GNN models.
method Adapted conformal prediction for graph data, weighting scores based on graph structure.
result Better calibrated and tighter prediction sets than naive conformal prediction.
SACP aggregates nonconformity scores from multiple predictors to create more efficient uncertainty sets.
problem Combining predictive uncertainties from multiple models for efficient and reliable uncertainty quantification.
method SACP (Symmetric Aggregated Conformal Prediction) aggregates nonconformity scores using a flexible symmetric aggregation function.
result SACP consistently improves efficiency and often outperforms state-of-the-art model aggregation baselines.
Paper develops an efficient method for conformal prediction in sparse linear models.
problem Computing conformal prediction sets for sparse linear models is computationally infeasible.
method Numerical continuation techniques to approximate the solution path efficiently.
result The method accurately approximates conformal prediction sets for sparse linear models.