We develop importance sampling based efficient simulation techniques for three commonly encountered rare event probabilities associated with random walks having i.i.d. regularly varying increments; namely, 1) the large deviation probabilities, 2) the level crossing probabilities, and 3) the level crossing probabilities…
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48 results for “Incremental estimation”
Method estimates causal effects from incremental data, overcoming missing data challenges.
problem Estimating causal effects from non-stationary, incrementally available observational data.
method Continual Causal Effect Representation Learning
result Method achieves continual causal effect estimation without compromising original data.
New method estimates sparse mean from noisy data without knowing sparsity level.
problem Sparse mean estimation under adversarial corruptions.
method Incremental learning approach to nonconvex optimization.
result Achieves optimal statistical rate under moderate signal-to-noise ratio.
Estimates volatility of volatility and leverage effect using high-frequency options data.
problem Estimating volatility of volatility and leverage effect from high-frequency options data.
method Model-free estimators using characteristic function of price increments and spot volatility.
result Developed feasible inference methods for estimating volatility of volatility and leverage effect.
We consider a situation in which we see samples in drawn i.i.d. from some distribution with mean zero and unknown covariance A. We wish to compute the top eigenvector of A in an incremental fashion - with an algorithm that maintains an estimate of the top eigenvector in O(d) space, and incrementally adju…
Modern longitudinal studies collect feature data at many timepoints, often of the same order of sample size. Such studies are typically affected by {dropout} and positivity violations. We tackle these problems by generalizing effects of recent incremental interventions (which shift propensity scores rather than set tre…
New algorithm improves on EM for streaming data, outperforming existing methods.
problem Processing high-volume, streaming data efficiently.
method Incremental stochastic Majorization-Minimization (MM) algorithm.
result The algorithm converges to a stationary point with vanishing gradient.
In this paper, we propose a probabilistic optimization method, named probabilistic incremental proximal gradient (PIPG) method, by developing a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm. We explicitly model the update rules of the incremental proximal gradient method and develop a syst…
Cross-validation (CV) is one of the main tools for performance estimation and parameter tuning in machine learning. The general recipe for computing CV estimate is to run a learning algorithm separately for each CV fold, a computationally expensive process. In this paper, we propose a new approach to reduce the computa…
A new method for estimating density ratios using geodesics on statistical manifolds.
problem Stability of density ratio estimation when distributions are distant.
method Iterative sampling along generalized geodesics on the Riemannian manifold.
result The proposed method outperforms existing incremental mixture methods.
GROUSE (Grassmannian Rank-One Update Subspace Estimation) is an incremental algorithm for identifying a subspace of Rn from a sequence of vectors in this subspace, where only a subset of components of each vector is revealed at each iteration. Recent analysis has shown that GROUSE converges locally at an expected linea…
Real GDP per capita since 1870q-fin.GN
The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the growth rate is modelled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a con…
We consider the problem of minimizing the composition of a smooth (nonconvex) function and a smooth vector mapping, where the inner mapping is in the form of an expectation over some random variable or a finite sum. We propose a stochastic composite gradient method that employs an incremental variance-reduced estimator…
A new generative classification strategy outperforms existing methods in class-incremental learning.
problem Incrementally training deep neural networks to recognize new classes is challenging.
method Proposes learning the joint distribution p(x,y) and performing classification using Bayes' rule, implemented with variational autoencoders and importance sampling.
result Performs very well on continual learning benchmarks, outperforming existing baselines.
Optimizes subset selection in sparse learning problems.
problem Sparse learning problems, particularly best subset selection.
method Developed an efficient primal-dual algorithm leveraging dual range estimation and incremental strategy.
result Improves solutions of best subset selection with reduced redundant computation.
A new SOHP filter improves trend estimation in economic time series.
problem Improving trend estimation in nonlinear economic time series.
method Recursive application of one-sided HP filter on updated cyclical components, combined with an incremental HP filtering algorithm.
result Better performance of SOHP filter compared to other HP-type filters on real economic data.
A new algorithm estimates aggregate marginals from noisy data in an online manner.
problem Estimating aggregate marginals of a Markov chain from noisy aggregate observations.
method Sliding window Sinkhorn belief propagation (SW-SBP) algorithm.
result Demonstrated improved performance on inferring population flow.
Efficiently samples sequences without replacement for machine learning models.
problem Generating diverse outputs from sequential models without duplicates.
method Incremental sampling procedure for randomized programs, including neural models.
result Efficacy and flexibility of incremental sampling for large output spaces.
Incremental Nonlinear System Identification and Adaptive Particle Filtering Using Gaussian Processstat.ML
An incremental/online state dynamic learning method is proposed for identification of the nonlinear Gaussian state space models. The method embeds the stochastic variational sparse Gaussian process as the probabilistic state dynamic model inside a particle filter framework. Model updating is done at measurement sample …
Tighter Bound Estimation of Sensitivity Analysis for Incremental and Decremental Data Modificationcs.LG
Algorithm estimates bounds of updated classifier coefficients efficiently.
problem Determining sensitivity of updated classifiers without retraining.
method Proposes an algorithm to estimate upper and lower bounds of updated classifier coefficients.
result Estimates bounds with low computational complexity and tightness.
Temporal difference methods enable efficient estimation of value functions in reinforcement learning in an incremental fashion, and are of broader interest because they correspond learning as observed in biological systems. Standard value functions correspond to the expected value of a sum of discounted returns. While …
Motivated by the need for accurate frequency information, a novel algorithm for estimating the fundamental frequency and its rate of change in three-phase power systems is developed. This is achieved through two stages of Kalman filtering. In the first stage a quaternion extended Kalman filter, which provides a unified…
We introduce incremental variational inference and apply it to latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). Incremental variational inference is inspired by incremental EM and provides an alternative to stochastic variational inference. Incremental LDA can process massive document collections, does not require to set a learning …
This work proposes a novel method for estimating the influence that unknown static objects might have over mobile agents. Since the motion of agents can be affected by the presence of fixed objects, it is possible use the information about trajectories deviations to infer the presence of obstacles and estimate the forc…
New kernel methods estimate complex causal relationships.
problem Estimating nonparametric causal functions like dose-response curves.
method Kernel ridge regression with decomposition property.
result Uniform consistency with finite sample rates proved.
Asymptotic Separability of Diffusion and Jump Components in High-Frequency CIR and CKLS Modelsq-fin.ST
Robustly detects jumps in high-frequency CIR and CKLS models.
problem Jump detection in high-frequency jump-diffusion processes.
method MDPDE-based robust estimators for drift and diffusion coefficients.
result Maximum of normalized residuals converges to Gumbel distribution.
AdaAnn optimizes annealing for efficient probability density approximation.
problem Efficiently approximating complex probability distributions with multiple modes.
method AdaAnn is an adaptive annealing scheduler that adjusts temperature increments based on KL divergence.
result AdaAnn improves computational efficiency in variational inference and parameter estimation.
In recent years, dynamically growing data and incrementally growing number of classes pose new challenges to large-scale data classification research. Most traditional methods struggle to balance the precision and computational burden when data and its number of classes increased. However, some methods are with weak pr…
IUPM monitors machine learning models under gradual shifts using optimal transport and active labeling.
problem Gradual distribution shifts lead to unnoticed accuracy declines in machine learning models.
method Incremental Uncertainty-aware Performance Monitoring (IUPM) using optimal transport and active labeling.
result IUPM outperforms existing baselines in gradual shift scenarios and guides label acquisition more effectively.
New method uses SDEs for accurate non-uniformly sampled time series analysis.
problem Characterizing non-uniformly sampled time series with high accuracy.
method Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) for modeling, incremental estimation, and model truncation.
result Increased accuracy in characterizing non-uniformly sampled time series.
The Wandering of Cornq-fin.GN
Time and Sales of corn futures traded electronically on the CME Group Globex are studied. Theories of continuous prices turn upside down reality of intra-day trading. Prices and their increments are discrete and obey lattice probability distributions. A function for systematic evolution of futures trading volume is pro…
Paper tackles few-shot class-incremental learning with a neural gas network.
problem Incrementally learn new classes from very few labelled samples without forgetting old classes.
method Proposes TOPIC framework using a neural gas network to preserve class topology and adapt to new samples.
result Significantly outperforms other methods on CIFAR100, miniImageNet, and CUB200 datasets.
Improved exploration algorithm for unknown MDPs with reduced sample complexity.
problem Exploration of unknown environments without reward function.
method Incremental model-based approach that interleaves state discovery and policy improvement.
result Achieves sample complexity scaling as .
Validation is one of the most important aspects of clustering, but most approaches have been batch methods. Recently, interest has grown in providing incremental alternatives. This paper extends the incremental cluster validity index (iCVI) family to include incremental versions of Calinski-Harabasz (iCH), I index and …
A new model learns preferences incrementally without personal data.
problem Incremental session-based recommendation without personal data.
method Memory Augmented Neural model (MAN) that combines a neural recommender with a nonparametric memory.
result MAN consistently outperforms existing methods in incremental session-based recommendation.
Incremental Majorization-Minimization Optimization with Application to Large-Scale Machine Learningmath.OC
Majorization-minimization algorithms consist of successively minimizing a sequence of upper bounds of the objective function. These upper bounds are tight at the current estimate, and each iteration monotonically drives the objective function downhill. Such a simple principle is widely applicable and has been very popu…
Lambda Learner improves model freshness in data streams.
problem Balancing model freshness and computational costs in data streams.
method Incremental updates in response to mini-batches from data streams.
result Lambda Learner outperforms offline models in time-sensitive updates.
Incremental versions of batch algorithms are often desired, for increased time efficiency in the streaming data setting, or increased memory efficiency in general. In this paper we present a novel algorithm for incremental kernel PCA, based on rank one updates to the eigendecomposition of the kernel matrix, which is mo…
This work presents GROUSE (Grassmanian Rank-One Update Subspace Estimation), an efficient online algorithm for tracking subspaces from highly incomplete observations. GROUSE requires only basic linear algebraic manipulations at each iteration, and each subspace update can be performed in linear time in the dimension of…
This paper studies an acceleration technique for incremental aggregated gradient ({\sf IAG}) method through the use of \emph{curvature} information for solving strongly convex finite sum optimization problems. These optimization problems of interest arise in large-scale learning applications. Our technique utilizes a c…
Deep Incremental Boostingstat.ML
This paper introduces Deep Incremental Boosting, a new technique derived from AdaBoost, specifically adapted to work with Deep Learning methods, that reduces the required training time and improves generalisation. We draw inspiration from Transfer of Learning approaches to reduce the start-up time to training each incr…
Paper proposes CNE-net to tackle incremental learning in (T)ACSA tasks.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in multi-task incremental learning for (T)ACSA.
method Category Name Embedding network (CNE-net) with shared encoder and decoder.
result State-of-the-art performance on (T)ACSA benchmark datasets.
This paper presents a novel approach for incremental semiparametric inverse dynamics learning. In particular, we consider the mixture of two approaches: Parametric modeling based on rigid body dynamics equations and nonparametric modeling based on incremental kernel methods, with no prior information on the mechanical …
GraphSAIL updates GNN-based recommender models incrementally to reduce computation time and improve frequent updates.
problem Incremental updates in GNN-based recommender systems are computationally expensive and prone to forgetting.
method GraphSAIL uses a graph structure preservation strategy to update GNN models incrementally, preserving long-term preferences and properties.
result GraphSAIL reduces computation time and improves frequent updates compared to other incremental learning techniques.
A leading hypothesis for the surprising generalization of neural networks is that the dynamics of gradient descent bias the model towards simple solutions, by searching through the solution space in an incremental order of complexity. We formally define the notion of incremental learning dynamics and derive the conditi…
Estimates outcomes under hypothetical scenarios using a flexible framework.
problem Adapting to sudden shifts in treatment patterns.
method Doubly robust estimator using incremental interventions.
result Achieves -consistency and asymptotic normality.
EILearn: Learning Incrementally Using Previous Knowledge Obtained From an Ensemble of Classifierscs.LG
We propose an algorithm for incremental learning of classifiers. The proposed method enables an ensemble of classifiers to learn incrementally by accommodating new training data. We use an effective mechanism to overcome the stability-plasticity dilemma. In incremental learning, the general convention is to use only th…
A new permutation method improves two-sample testing power.
problem Two-sample testing with improved power and validity.
method Structured block-restricted cross-swaps.
result Block-restricted permutations achieve higher power than full permutations.