LLMs generate answers under incomplete context, and their uncertainty should scale with missing information.
problem Evaluating the quality of LLM answers under incomplete context.
method A controlled framework with varying context availability, and two uncertainty measures (sampling-based confidence and response entropy) evaluated on SQuAD.
result Response entropy increases with context removal and explains more variance in accuracy than confidence, suggesting it is a more responsive uncertainty measure.
The results of data mining endeavors are majorly driven by data quality. Throughout these deployments, serious show-stopper problems are still unresolved, such as: data collection ambiguities, data imbalance, hidden biases in data, the lack of domain information, and data incompleteness. This paper is based on the prem…
In the context of an incomplete market with a Brownian filtration and a fixed finite time horizon, this paper proves that for general dynamic convex risk measures, the buyer's and seller's risk indifference prices of a contingent claim are bounded from below and above by the dynamic lower and upper hedging prices, resp…
In this work, we introduce a new procedure for applying Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) to missing data inference tasks, based on linearization of the effective energy function governing the distribution of observations. We compare the performance of our proposed procedure with those obtained using existing recons…
SG-NTF completes HDI tensors with spectral mapping and spatio-temporal gating.
problem High-dimensional and incomplete tensor completion.
method Spectra-Guided Neural Tucker Factorization (SG-NTF) with Spatio-Temporal Co-Gating (STCG).
result Maintains competitive completion accuracy with parameter efficiency.
We study the pricing and hedging of derivatives in incomplete financial markets by considering the local risk-minimization method in the context of the benchmark approach, which will be called benchmarked local risk-minimization. We show that the proposed benchmarked local risk-minimization allows to handle under extre…
AugMask trains diffusion models on incomplete tabular data by augmenting missing values and applying denoising supervision.
problem Training diffusion models on incomplete tabular data with missing values.
method AugMask uses stochastic augmentation and denoising supervision to adapt diffusion models to incomplete data.
result AugMask enables diffusion-based tabular generators to outperform specialized missing-aware baselines across various datasets and missingness regimes.
This paper considers the mean variance portfolio management problem. We examine portfolios which contain both primary and derivative securities. The challenge in this context is due to portfolio's nonlinearities. The delta-gamma approximation is employed to overcome it. Thus, the optimization problem is reduced to a we…
Music SketchNet generates missing measures in incomplete music pieces, guided by user input.
problem Generating missing measures in incomplete monophonic musical pieces.
method Introducing SketchVAE for factorized representation of rhythm and pitch, and two discriminative architectures for guided music completion.
result Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art models in both objective and subjective evaluations.
We show that, under mild assumptions, some unimaginable events - which we refer to as Black Swan events - must necessarily occur. It follows as a corollary of our theorem that any computational model of decision-making under uncertainty is incomplete in the sense that not all events that occur can be taken into account…
Incomplete financial markets are considered, defined by a multi-dimensional non-homogeneous diffusion process, being the direct sum of an Itô process (the price process), and another non-homogeneous diffusion process (the exogenous process, representing exogenous stochastic sources). The drift and the diffusion matrix …
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have shown great success in applications such as image generation and inpainting. However, they typically require large datasets, which are often not available, especially in the context of prediction tasks such as image segmentation that require labels. Therefore, methods such as…
We provide a critical analysis of the proof of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing given in the paper "Arbitrage and approximate arbitrage: the fundamental theorem of asset pricing" by B. Wong and C.C. Heyde (Stochastics, 2010) in the context of incomplete Itô-process models. We show that their approach can only w…
Paper studies how incomplete data affects machine learning, proposing 'Certain Predictions' for NN classifiers.
problem Impact of incomplete and inconsistent data on machine learning applications.
method Extends Certain Answers concept to machine learning, introduces 'Certain Predictions' for NN classifiers.
result Developed efficient solutions for CP queries in NN classifiers, improving classification accuracy.
Algorithm improves decision-making with partially observed contexts using pretrained models.
problem Improving decision-making with partially observed contexts in online linear contextual bandits.
method PULSE-UCB algorithm that uses pretrained models trained on auxiliary data to impute missing features.
result Achieves near-optimal performance in i.i.d. context case with Hölder-smooth missing features.
In the framework of an incomplete financial market where the stock price dynamics are modeled by a continuous semimartingale (not necessarily Markovian) an explicit second-order expansion formula for the power investor's value function - seen as a function of the underlying market price of risk process - is provided. T…
New method clusters strong and weak views effectively, improving performance by up to 40%.
problem Clustering incomplete multi-view data with unbalanced incompleteness.
method View evolution scheme and weighted multi-view subspace clustering.
result Improves clustering performance by up to 40% on three metrics.
Study N-player and mean-field games in Itô-diffusion markets with competitive or homophilous interactions.
problem Optimal portfolio choice in a common market with N interacting players. method Analyzes N-player and mean-field games in incomplete and complete markets with CARA utilities and random risk tolerances. result Derives explicit or closed-form solutions for equilibrium processes and game values.
The noncompact Yamabe flow can lead to incomplete metrics over infinite time.
problem Incompleteness of noncompact Yamabe flow solutions over infinite time.
method Analysis of long-time behavior of the noncompact Yamabe flow.
result Existence of a long-time solution that is complete for each time but converges to an incomplete metric.
In this paper, we consider a financial market with assets exposed to some risks inducing jumps in the asset prices, and which can still be traded after default times. We use a default-intensity modeling approach, and address in this incomplete market context the problem of maximization of expected utility from terminal…
New method accounts for hidden context in preference learning for RLHF models.
problem Incomplete data with hidden context affects RLHF model outcomes.
method Distributional Preference Learning (DPL) methods estimate hidden context distributions.
result DPL methods reduce RLHF vulnerabilities by accounting for hidden context.
New flow preserves singularities on incomplete manifolds.
problem Evolve incomplete manifolds with bounded curvature.
method Construct Ricci de Turck flow uniformly equivalent to initial metric.
result Any incomplete manifold can be evolved for a short time.
The possibility of statistical evaluation of the market completeness and incompleteness is investigated for continuous time diffusion stock market models. It is known that the market completeness is not a robust property: small random deviations of the coefficients convert a complete market model into a incomplete one.…
Develops GNNs for incomplete graphs, improving learning from missing node attributes.
problem Learning from incomplete graphs with missing node attributes.
method Introduces PaGNNs with novel partial aggregation functions for incomplete graph data.
result Demonstrates effectiveness and efficiency of PaGNNs on various datasets.
In order to find a way of measuring the degree of incompleteness of an incomplete financial market, the rank of the vector price process of the traded assets and the dimension of the associated acceptance set are introduced. We show that they are equal and state a variety of consequences.
This paper solves hedging in incomplete markets using neural networks.
problem Hedging in incomplete markets with risk factor, illiquidity, and discrete transaction dates.
method Proposes a jump-diffusion model and uses RNN, LSTM, and Mogrifier-LSTM neural networks for hedging strategies.
result Mogrifier-LSTM is the fastest and most effective model for hedging.
The objective of this paper is to investigate how noisy and incomplete observations can be integrated in the process of building a reduced-order model. This problematic arises in many scientific domains where there exists a need for accurate low-order descriptions of highly-complex phenomena, which can not be directly …
This paper studies robust forward investment and consumption preferences within a zero-volatility context. Different from previous works, we consider an incomplete financial market model due to general investment portfolio constraints. We provide a new PDE characterization and a novel semi-explicit saddle-point constru…
In an incomplete financial market, the axiomatic of Time Consistent Pricing Procedure (TCPP), recently introduced, is used to assign to any financial asset a dynamic limit order book, taking into account both the dynamics of basic assets and the limit order books for options. Kreps-Yan fundamental theorem is extended t…
We investigate the possibility of statistical evaluation of the market completeness for discrete time stock market models. It is known that the market completeness is not a robust property: small random deviations of the coefficients convert a complete market model into a incomplete one. The paper shows that market inc…
We consider the problem of optimal consumption of multiple goods in incomplete semimartingale markets. We formulate the dual problem and identify conditions that allow for existence and uniqueness of the solution and give a characterization of the optimal consumption strategy in terms of the dual optimizer. We illustra…
Researchers tackle insider trading in incomplete markets using a discrete-time jump process approach.
problem Tackles insider trading in incomplete markets under the trinomial model.
method Uses a marked binomial process and stochastic analysis with Malliavin calculus.
result Identifies insider expected additional utility with Shannon entropy of extra information.
In the setting of exponential investors and uncertainty governed by Brownian motions we first prove the existence of an incomplete equilibrium for a general class of models. We then introduce a tractable class of exponential-quadratic models and prove that the corresponding incomplete equilibrium is characterized by a …
Study Dirac operators on incomplete cusp edge spaces, proving self-adjointness and Fredholm properties.
problem Analyzing Dirac operators on complex geometric spaces.
method Construct heat kernel, prove self-adjointness and Fredholm properties, establish index formula.
result Proved Dirac operators are essentially self-adjoint and Fredholm.
Algorithm recovers sparse PCA support from incomplete data.
problem Sparse PCA with incomplete and noisy data.
method Semidefinite program (SDP) relaxation of non-convex l1-regularized PCA. result SDP enables exact recovery of true support of sparse leading eigenvector.
In the present work some generalizations of the Hawking singularity theorems in the context of f(R) theories are presented. The assumptions are of these generalized theorems is that the matter fields satisfy the conditions (Tij−2gijT)kikj≥0 for any generic unit time like field, that…
New ML method detects incomplete bid-rigging cartels.
problem Detecting incomplete bid-rigging cartels in competitive bidding.
method Combines statistical screens with machine learning.
result Algorithm outperforms existing methods in incomplete cartels.
We introduce a new class of context dependent, incomplete information games to serve as structured prediction models for settings with significant strategic interactions. Our games map the input context to outcomes by first condensing the input into private player types that specify the utilities, weighted interactions…
We show that when the price process S represents a fully incomplete market, the optimal super-replication of any Markovian claim g(ST) with g(⋅) being nonnegative and lower semicontinuous is of buy-and-hold type. Since both (unbounded) stochastic volatility models and rough volatility models are examples of …
The paper extends cost-efficiency analysis to incomplete markets.
problem Cost-efficiency in incomplete financial markets.
method Extends results from complete markets to incomplete markets, introduces new preferences.
result Optimal portfolios in non-decreasing preferences are perfectly cost-efficient.
This paper considers the optimal portfolio selection problem in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with regime switching. The risk preferences are of exponential (CARA) type with an absolute coefficient of risk aversion which changes with the regime. The market model is incomplete and there are two risky asset…
New estimator for symmetric kernel expectations, robust to missing data.
problem Efficient estimation of symmetric kernel expectations with missing data.
method Median-of-Incomplete-U-Statistics (MIU) estimator.
result Established finite-sample concentration rate for MIU.
Study optimal investment and consumption in incomplete markets with nonlinear expectations.
problem Utility maximization in incomplete markets with general constraints.
method Utilizes g-martingale method to solve optimization problem for various utility functions. result Characterizes optimal investment-consumption strategy through quadratic BSDE solutions.
We show that the frequent claim that the implied tree prices exotic options consistently with the market is untrue if the local volatilities are subject to change and the market is arbitrage-free. In the process, we analyse -- in the most general context -- the impact of stochastic variables on the P&L of a hedged port…
SDA method reduces memory and time for assimilating noisy geophysical data.
problem Challenges in identifying state trajectories of high-dimensional geophysical systems.
method Score-based data assimilation with modified score network architecture.
result Promising results for a two-layer quasi-geostrophic model.
Improved VAE estimation from incomplete data using variational mixtures.
problem Estimating VAEs from incomplete data increases posterior complexity.
method Introducing variational mixtures based on finite and imputation distributions.
result Variational mixtures improve VAE estimation accuracy from incomplete data.
Motivated by recent interest in the spectrum of the Laplacian of incomplete surfaces with isolated conical singularities, we consider more general incomplete m-dimensional manifolds with singularities on sets of codimension at least 2. With certain restrictions on the metric, we establish that the spectrum is discrete …
Solves ambiguity in incomplete markets by minimizing price measure entropy.
problem Ambiguity in pricing incomplete markets.
method Minimizes the entropy of the price measure from the economic measure, subject to mark-to-market constraints.
result Resolves ambiguity and provides a consistent pricing measure.